theweatheroutlook

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Gavin D
01 March 2016 15:46:16
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Mar 2016 to Tuesday 15 Mar 2016:

Showery rain and sleet with snow on hills will soon clear eastern areas later on Sunday to leave a mainly dry and bright day with easing winds for most places. On Sunday night a band of rain, preceded by hill snow, is expected to move southeastwards across many parts, this clearing to drier and brighter conditions through Monday. The rest of the week should then see a good deal of fine and dry weather with some pleasant spells of sunshine, however nights will often be cold with overnight frosts for many parts. Unsettled conditions may return to affect some northwestern parts, bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain at times, this possibly extending southeastwards across all parts of the country later in the period.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Mar 2016 to Wednesday 30 Mar 2016:

Settled conditions may persist at first across the south and east, however a quick return to more changeable weather seems likely during the middle part of the month. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions in between. There will be some local sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air, and as usual the snow risk will be highest in northern areas. The temperature is expected to average out to be colder than normal for March, with overnight frosts expected on many nights, especially at first.
ARTzeman
01 March 2016 16:34:06

That's that month over in a post.   Hope we get some good times... 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Crepuscular Ray
01 March 2016 17:56:27
Yellow snow warning here. 2-5cm below 100m and 5-10cm above 100m! (In places!)
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
m fish
02 March 2016 08:44:40
Do people still watch those useless bbc weather forecasts who cant even get the weather right 12 hours in advance
Richard K
02 March 2016 09:08:15

Yellow snow warning here. 2-5cm below 100m and 5-10cm above 100m! (In places!)

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


 


I'm surprised they warn about yellow snow, nanny state and all that. Make sure you don't eat it!!

Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Gavin D
02 March 2016 12:15:44
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Mar 2016 to Wednesday 16 Mar 2016:

Rain, preceded by hill snow, is expected to move southeastwards across western parts through Monday morning. This should then clear to drier and brighter conditions later, but with some wintry showers persisting over higher ground, especially across eastern parts. Tuesday should see a good deal of fine and dry and occasionally sunny weather, but with cold, frosty overnight periods. Unsettled conditions are likely return to some northwestern parts from midweek, bringing strong winds and outbreaks of rain at times, this possibly extending southeastwards across all parts of the country later in the period. Between the bands of rain briefer periods of brighter, drier weather are possible, especially in the south and east, where high pressure could be more dominant. Temperatures generally below average throughout the period.

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Mar 2016 to Thursday 31 Mar 2016:

Changeable conditions seem most likely as we move into the second half of March. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled and bright, but cold conditions in between. There could be some localised sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air, with the snow risk will be highest in northern areas. Temperatures are expected to start below average, but should move back around average towards the end of the period.
Bazza
02 March 2016 13:25:57

A Weather warning for us Southerners.

Issued at:
1156 on Wed 2 Mar 2016
Valid from:
1500 on Fri 4 Mar 2016
Valid to:
0900 on Sat 5 Mar 2016
Chief Forecaster's assessment

A mix of rain, sleet and snow associated with a frontal band is expected to push south across southern parts of England and Wales through Friday afternoon and evening, before clearing by the early hours of Saturday. Snow will be predominantly confined to the higher ground above 200-400m with perhaps 1-2cm accumulating here. At lower levels this will be mainly rain and sleet but may turn briefly to snow in heavier outbreaks of precipitation.
As this front clears south through the evening there is potential for widespread black ice to form quickly on road surfaces and pavements.

Please be aware of the potential for difficult driving conditions and for some travel disruption during the Friday evening rush hour and overnight into Saturday morning.

This warning will likely be updated in the coming days as confidence increases on detail.



An occluded front is expected to push south across southern parts of the UK through Friday afternoon and evening before clearing the south coast by the early hours of Saturday morning. This occlusion will be accompanied by colder air from the northeast with a mix of wintry precipitation. As often is the case in snow situations in the UK whether the precipitation falls as rain or snow is finely balanced resulting in some uncertainty in the details of the rain and snow mix. At this time it is likely that snow will largely be confined to higher ground above 200-400m however sleet and snow may temporarily fall to lower levels in heavier precipitation.

A greater hazard will come from the potential for widespread ice to form as skies clear through the evening behind the front allowing road surface temperatures fall below freezing. The frontal precipitation may also result in some wash off of grit to allow freezing on previously treated surfaces.

This event has potential to result in medium impacts to travel.
Gavin D
03 March 2016 09:55:01
Meanwhile...

Hot Summer Ahead: Weather forecaster James Madden predicts that Ireland will experience a heatwave this summer

http://theliberal.ie/hot-summer-ahead-weather-forecaster-james-madden-predicts-that-ireland-will-experience-a-heatwave-this-summer/ 
Gavin D
03 March 2016 13:44:32
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Mar 2016 to Thursday 17 Mar 2016:

Tuesday should start fine, especially in the south but rain and strong winds may then push southeastwards through the day. There is a chance of occasional heavy, blustery showers following the rain, with some of these turning wintry over higher parts. These are most likely in the northwest, along with some gales. Through next week and into the following week, an unsettled pattern is expected to continue, with periods of rain and strong winds interspersed with spells of sunshine and showers. Over higher ground of the northwest these showers could turn wintry, although there should be occasional drier weather, especially in the south and east, where high pressure could become more dominant. Temperatures will tend to fluctuate from around average in the rain, to just below in the showery conditions.

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Mar 2016 to Friday 1 Apr 2016:

Initially is it likely that more changeable conditions will dominate, with rain and strong winds mixed with periods of bright and generally settled, but occasionally showery weather. There are likely to be some localised outbreaks of sleet or snow, either from bands of rain pushing into colder air, or from showers in colder spells from the northwest. The snow risk will the highest in the northern areas, with a risk of gales in the far northwest. Towards the end of March, a more sustained period of settled weather could become established. Temperatures are expected to be around average, with a low chance of temperatures falling just below average towards the end of the month.
tallyho_83
03 March 2016 19:56:04

Don't understand why the Met O are going for temperatures falling below average - the GFS show mild if not some pleasant warm spring like weather with temperatures of 14 or 15c by middle of the month but back to the here and now - BBC SW Spotlight presenter David Braine has said that "Sunday night into Monday there could be a dusting of snow and NOT exclusively over the Moors and it's one to keep a close eye on" - No doubt this will probably change anyway! We have been let down too many times and it's all becoming an all too familiar picture: -We will see.


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
03 March 2016 20:14:16


Don't understand why the Met O are going for temperatures falling below average - the GFS show mild if not some pleasant warm spring like weather with temperatures of 14 or 15c by middle of the month but back to the here and now - BBC SW Spotlight presenter David Braine has said that "Sunday night into Monday there could be a dusting of snow and NOT exclusively over the Moors and it's one to keep a close eye on" - No doubt this will probably change anyway! We have been let down too many times and it's all becoming an all too familiar picture: -We will see.


 



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Are you referring to this quote? "with a low chance of temperatures falling just below average towards the end of the month." Even deepest FI on GFS only goes to the 19th.


For the middle of the month they have temperatures fluctuating between around average to a bit below when it is raining.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tallyho_83
03 March 2016 20:23:52


 


Are you referring to this quote? "with a low chance of temperatures falling just below average towards the end of the month." Even deepest FI on GFS only goes to the 19th.


For the middle of the month they have temperatures fluctuating between around average to a bit below when it is raining.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


This for instance they forgot to mention the milder spell: - Looks mild to me and spring-like:


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
03 March 2016 20:30:20
Simply because they look at all the charts not just the GFS operational t2m charts?
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
tallyho_83
03 March 2016 20:48:55

Simply because they look at all the charts not just the GFS operational t2m charts?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Could you pm me the link to all the charts - I only have the gfs OPERATIONAL. Thanks.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


doctormog
03 March 2016 21:01:23


 


 


Could you pm me the link to all the charts - I only have the gfs OPERATIONAL. Thanks.


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/ or www.meteociel.com let you choose from a variety of models. Go explore them. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
04 March 2016 11:59:27
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Mar 2016 to Friday 18 Mar 2016:

A frontal system moving south-eastwards across the country on Wednesday will bring a period of rain to most parts, with snow on northern hills. Colder and clearer conditions will follow from the northwest with occasional showers, which could turn wintry, especially over hills. It will also become windy at times with a risk of gales or severe gales in the northwest on Thursday. Over the weekend, and for the start of the following week, it is expected to turn milder with the wind coming mainly from the west or southwest. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest and most persistent rain occurring in the north and west, with some good dry spells probably occurring in the south and east.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Mar 2016 to Saturday 2 Apr 2016:

Westerly or south-westerly winds are expected to continue to dominate the weather pattern across the UK at the start of this period. This would continue the run of changeable weather with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest and most persistent rain most likely to occur in the north and west, with some good dry and bright spells likely for the south and east. Later in March and for the start of April, there is uncertainty with the chance of some more prolonged dry spells. Temperatures are likely to be mild at first, but probably oscillating around normal later.
tallyho_83
04 March 2016 23:01:36


Don't understand why the Met O are going for temperatures falling below average - the GFS show mild if not some pleasant warm spring like weather with temperatures of 14 or 15c by middle of the month but back to the here and now - BBC SW Spotlight presenter David Braine has said that "Sunday night into Monday there could be a dusting of snow and NOT exclusively over the Moors and it's one to keep a close eye on" - No doubt this will probably change anyway! We have been let down too many times and it's all becoming an all too familiar picture: -We will see.


 



Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Just for contrasting purposes another downgrade to add insult to this pathetic (I would say winter) but cold spell. It has been a deja-vu of this cooler spell on 16 or 17th Jan. Sunday nights so called "Dusting of snow or light covering, which will not just be exclusively over the moors" has now been replaced by overcast skies.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gavin D
05 March 2016 12:06:52
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Mar 2016 to Saturday 19 Mar 2016:

Thursday will be a wet and windy day across most parts with snow across northern hills. Colder, and brighter conditions will follow from the northwest into the north on Friday with showers, which are likely to turn wintry over high ground, and perhaps to lower levels. Over the weekend, west or south-westerly winds are expected to become established over the country, which would herald a change to milder conditions. It is also expected to become changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some dry and bright interludes. The heaviest and most persistent of the rain occurring in the north and west, with probably some good dry and bright spells for the south and east.

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Mar 2016 to Sunday 3 Apr 2016:

Westerly or south-westerly winds are expected to continue to dominate the weather pattern across the UK at the start of this period. This would continue the run of mainly mild and changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest and most persistent rain most likely to occur in the north and west, with some good dry and bright spells likely for the south and east. Later in March and for the start of April, there is the probability of some more prolonged dry spells. However, at this stage it is uncertain whether this would bring mild or cold temperatures.
Gavin D
05 March 2016 17:32:15
Turning milder from the end of next week week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35735524 
AFC Snow
05 March 2016 20:34:12

Met office update http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast



UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Mar 2016 to Wednesday 23 Mar 2016:

On the whole, cold and changeable conditions look to dominate through the period. Spells of wet and windy weather are likely as frontal systems push in from the Atlantic, but there should also be periods of more settled, crisp and bright conditions between. There will be some sleet or snow at times, either from showers in the colder spells or due to frontal systems running into cold air. Temperatures will generally be below average, with overnight frosts fairly common.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


 It is looking like another epic fail from the met office 16-30 day forecast. I don't know why they still release these forecasts as they are nearly always wrong. 

doctormog
05 March 2016 20:38:26
To be fair it's not massively different to the 10th to the 19th forecast above and bearing in mind the changes in model output it is only to be expected. I guess th forecasts should come with the caveat that at the time scales involved things are very likely to change, frequently more than once!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
06 March 2016 12:25:18
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Mar 2016 to Sunday 20 Mar 2016:

Friday should be mainly fine but chilly across the north. Elsewhere, a bright start, before mild, cloudy and damp weather spreads north-eastwards. On Saturday, most parts can expect mild and cloudy conditions with occasional rain or drizzle, although it is likely to brighten-up across southern and eastern England. The rain probably becoming confined to the far north and northwest by Sunday, with dry and sometimes bright weather becoming more widespread elsewhere. High pressure is expected to dominate next week, giving predominantly dry, mild and settled weather. Some rain may affect the far northwest at times. Temperatures typically above average next week, and feeling 'spring-like' at times, though patchy frost is likely at night. It could become colder, especially eastern areas, and things may become unsettled again by next weekend.

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Mar 2016 to Sunday 3 Apr 2016:

Westerly or south-westerly winds are expected to continue to dominate the weather pattern across the UK at the start of this period. This would continue the run of mainly mild and changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed by some drier and brighter interludes. The heaviest and most persistent rain most likely to occur in the north and west, with some good dry and bright spells likely for the south and east. Later in March and for the start of April, there is the probability of some more prolonged dry spells. However, at this stage it is uncertain whether this would bring mild or cold temperatures.
moomin75
06 March 2016 12:58:06
Useless Met Office update as usual. Basically saying it will be warm or cold dry or wet. Sitting on the fence as usual.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gavin D
06 March 2016 14:04:40
Week ahead forecast

More unsettled
Rain at times
Turning milder

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35735524 
Gavin D
07 March 2016 12:23:12
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Mar 2016 to Monday 21 Mar 2016:

Saturday looks set to be mild, breezy and predominantly cloudy, with occasional drizzle in the west, and more persistent drizzly rain in the northwest. On Sunday, the damp and breezy weather is expected to become mainly confined to the far northwest, whilst generally brightening-up in the south and east. High pressure is then expected to dominate well into next week, to bring largely dry and settled weather, with temperatures probably above normal. Feeling rather warm and spring-like when the sun's out, but a risk of rural frost at night, and a possibility that colder conditions could extend from the east with time. Late next week, there is a tendency for more unsettled conditions to gradually develop, with temperatures returning to near normal.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Mar 2016 to Tuesday 5 Apr 2016:

This period is most likely to be dominated by rather changeable weather, with temperatures averaging out at near or slightly below the seasonal norm. There is the possibility of large swings in weather type and temperatures through the period, though confidence remains very low.

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