Wouldn't surprise me in the least if it turned out just like that... AGAIN!

Think I'm joining you there.

What a tease this winter's been, with every single dollop of jam evaporating as the forecasted cold spell draws near.

Eh?

Isnt any long range forecast

You said the warmest month according to Gav would be March? I am confused! March is always warmer anyway - it's a spring month.

March to be the warmest spring month, followed by below average months, relative to the norms.

FWIW, March isn't always warmer than Jan or Feb.

See.... this is not so confusing

Is it?

March was the coldest month of the year in 2013.. so Tally is incorrect.

This is also incorrect.. I remember seeing some impressive snow drifts on the Kent and Susses coast from March 2013. Probably didn't last long though. 

Little bit off topic but, yes, there was a channel low of sorts that gave a few CMs cover here in strong winds and very low temps - wasn't too impressive drift wise in my part of Kent although there were some. I think the South Downs had some much deeper drifts.

In terms of longevity anything in the sun melted fairly quickly - in the shade any deeper stuff hung around for quite a while

I tend to think of March as possible to get snow down here but doesn't last long in the sun - it's perfectly possible to get near ice days though under cloudy conditions. Long laying snow though isn't really going to happen unless you get a freak series of events dragging very cold unstable air over us for days on end.

Just to make this a little bit relevant to the thread - warmer by the weekend and thereafter average to cool but unsettled. Wonder what the 12z's will bring

I wonder whether there has ever been a winter when the only widespread snow in the UK fell on February 29th?

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_300_preciptype.png?cb

Decent snow events at the end of the month.

Clearly J F F though

Still cool at the end of the week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn12017.gif

Milder into the weekend

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn14417.gif

Rain up North

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1444.gif

Mild on Sunday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16817.gif

Fresher returns for the start of the week

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn19217.gif

This question should be asked on 1st March.

Given that chart is 360hrs away, I suspect 2016 will not be adding to whatever the answer is.

😏🙄

I think it was an interesting question today. 1st March can only make a difference to this year.

 Low probability of course. I wonder if one of TWOs resident stats masters has the answer. GW? Kev?

GFS preparing to lead us up the garden path again.Yes there is a bit more northern blocking out at 360h but unless METO leaves in place its turn of the month colder spell I would ignore this.

That'd be great for my youngest daughter, who's a 'leapling'.

I guess we can only hope that the call for a possible colder, more settled spell the MetO have mentioned happening at the turn of the month turns out to be as accurate as the call they made in late January for the current temporary colder spell.

Will be interesting to see what GFS does over the coming days. If it sticks by this theme of a gradual increase in northern blocking for late February over the coming days and it starts to appear in a slightly more reliable timeframe, then it may be onto something. It's worth remembering that for a while, it was looking somewhat doubtful that this current colder & quieter spell would happen at all, given some of the model output we were seeing at the start of February.

Originally Posted by: Stone Cold

march 2013 did nothing for southern england

all the action was midlands northwards

a repeat would be no good down here

hurry up winter, a good riddance

It certainly did nothing IMBY...I remember seeing on the news how almost all the country was getting plastered in snow, and I barely even saw a flake...

Snow on the back edge if GFS is to be believed

As you're the only person to comment on the 18Z run, I'll do the honourable thing and reply 😉

I will be very surprised if there is any meaningful snowfall pretty much anywhere in the next 10 days.

And if someone living at 600m in Scotland is wondering what I mean by 'meaningful' . . . 😘

A significant adjustment with the Wed/Thu rain/snow event on the 00z ECM and GFS; that extension of the 1010 mb line well south of the UK reflects slight secondary LP development, which wasn't there on the 12z runs.

Ironically the models aren't far off going full-circle, back to a few days ago when the disruption was looking very pronounced, with a notable secondary low dropping south.

Result in the case of GFS is a stall sooner than before and with a better transition to snow:

It does drift east after this but weakens rapidly as the frontal system occludes out.

Interestingly ECM has slightly colder air ahead of the front so a larger portion of the precipitation could fall as snow.

Of the high-res models, WRF is similar to GFS (but weirdly the snow disappears as it pushes further east - diurnal warming despite heavy cloud cover? As if!), while ARPEGE occludes the boundary very quickly except across the far south, this seemingly being due to the lowering of pressure focusing further north than GFS and ECM have this morning, with a slight southerly component to the flow for the south... but the flow is so slight that this seems a bit unconvincing to me:

Thank you so much

Thanks for highlighting this; I actually think this secondary development was suggested on the ECM 12z and it seems to have grown in popularity! frontal transitions are sometimes a lot more complex than progged so expect some further stalling/dissipation with perhaps some central areas receiving a good "fall" (not necessarily accumulation!) of the white stuff. Keep an eye on the Met updates.

A bit more interesting

Could do with coming in overnight really but a covering we just might get