http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/00_87_preciptype.png?cb=980

A final chance for some real snow in Hampshire?

From IF

During the weekend, GloSea5 trended away from an anticyclonic outcome for early March. However, given MJO cycling through phases 6-7, UKMO assessments continue to offer caveat of "slightly increased chance of blocked/colder conditions" turn of month-early March; i.e. outcome *may* run contra to majority of current ENS from GloSea and EC Monthly (which have broadly zonal background signals into 1st half of March). 

Berty, don't get your hopes up!

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY FEB 15TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move slowly East across the UK today and tonight eliminating the cold Northerly flow over the East. A trough of Low pressure will then advance slowly ESE across Scotland and Northern Ireland later tonight and tomorrow in a strengthening SSW flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is currently fairly universal at or around 2000ft across the UK. Snow showers in the Northeast will reduce through the day. Freezing levels will rise across Scotland and Northern Ireland tomorrow as rain and hill snow moves in from the WNW.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream lighter than recently will tumble down across the UK over the next few days in association with the UK midweek trough. It then strengthens from the weekend and crosses the East over the North of the UK before the axis moves South again later to lie West to East over Southern Britain and France later in Week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a strong ridge of High pressure moving East across the UK followed by a trough of Low pressure moving erratically ESE midweek and bringing rain to many and the risk of some snow for a time for some especially in the East. Following on behind will be a spell of chilly and bright weather before Atlantic Westerly winds bring milder weather to all areas with changeable conditions with wet and windy weather alternating with colder brighter weather with showers especially later in the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run looks quite similar in theme to the Operational Run with a cold working week with rain and snow in places midweek giving way slowly to milder and stronger Atlantic winds and rain at times especially in the North with still the likelihood of some colder interludes in showery NW winds at times as weather systems pass by.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The GFS Clusters today continue to support winds blowing from a West to NW direction across the UK in two weeks time with varying degrees of influence from Low pressure always up to the North of the UK. there is some degree of support too that suggests High pressure may be quite close to the South of the UK restricting the worst of wind and rain towards the North. This currently has a level of 25% support from members which is more than yesterday.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the midweek trough stalling across the South soon after midweek with an awkward mix of rain and snow over Central and Eastern areas and on the hills. Then the trough weakens towards the end of the week and is given a kick up the backside as milder and stronger Westerly winds blow across the UK at the weekend with some rain for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today replicate the raw data well and illustrate the complexities of pinning down the detail of the exit east of the trough across the UK midweek. It does succeed however towards the weekend as milder Atlantic winds give it a shove away East into Europe.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM today follows the theme with milder and more changeable mobile conditions developing across the UK from next weekend leading on to an unsettled week next week with rain at times and colder showery conditions in between. The run does show the sinking South of the Jet Stream later bringing the risk of heavy rain equal to all areas next week after prioritising it towards the North in the early days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much broader trough from the middle of the week with cold weather with some rain and snow in places as the rough decelerates across the UK. milder air does eventually take over through with a more typical Westerly flow across the UK by this time next week with rain and strong winds at times in near average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM shows the current ridge declining away East as the trough up to the NW slides in towards midweek with the same mix of rain and hill snow shown by the other output moving across the UK West to East. After lingering for a while over the East and SE the whole thing is swept away east by much milder Westerly winds with rain at times changing to colder and showery conditions at times, this especially towards the North. High pressure is shown close to the South at Day 10 indicating the chance of more settled weather for many at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today maintains the theme of Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High to the South and SW likely across the UK in 10 days time with rain at times in the North and West especially and temperatures never that far from the seasonal average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall message is a little mixed but with the theme of milder Westerly winds in 10 days following a messy period when milder air may be delayed for a time through midweek this week remains the main agreements behind today's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.5 pts each. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.8 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.4 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.2 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 52.1 pts to ECM's 50.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The main focus of interest in the models today remains the erratic passage of a cold front across the UK midweek and it's subsequent clearance to eventual milder conditions likely to cross the UK from the West at the weekend. This week though sees some very cold air across the UK put in place by a cold NE flow decaying under a strong ridge of High pressure, We then see a cold front up to the NW move East across the UK midweek, decelerating and becoming more complex as potential small disturbances run along it as the cold air across the East proves stubborn to shift at the same time as the air to the West of the trough is none too warm either. However, all models show it all cleared East out of the UK by next weekend as the Jet Stream re-invigorates and moves across the North of the UK bringing milder and at times stronger Westerly winds with rain at times with the emphasis of this being towards the North and West. Then as we move through next week 'changeable' weather looks the best term to use as the pattern of High pressure to the South and SW and Low pressure to the North looks the most likely pattern to verify. All areas will see some rain and also some colder interludes as weather systems pass by with polar maritime air giving some wintriness to the showers in the North of the UK. Looking really long term there seems nothing to suggest any major late Winter cold outbreak with the Jet Stream still dictating the direction the UK weather takes with it's traditional West to East flow not undulating enough or far enough South to open the door to anything more than fleeting cold snaps I'm afraid.

Next Update Tuesday February 16th 2016 from 09:00

In my region, this smacks of a rain event (away from higher ground), with perhaps some snow on the back edge. Personally speaking, I need a further western shift of the whole pattern - only by around 50 miles - to make it snow here (which I think would also benefit most of England in terms of snow chances)

Can't remember ever seeing -10 dam air close to the coast of Ireland, but….. no expert on data.

see -http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn363.gif 

Well, not from the west, no!!

It does appear that the Met Office are starting to realise that their models might not be the best at handling MJO behaviour/impacts during the unusual setup we have this year in the Pacific/Indonesia/Indian Ocean with respect to heat anomalies.

Currently a dry Kelvin Wave is racing out of the Maritime continent and on to the Pacific. These things move fast and as such have less of an impact on the global weather patterns. As it nears the far above normal SSTs of the Central Pacific, however, it is expected to serve as the catalyst for a genuine MJO wave response - in other words it gains convection and becomes slow moving, with a considerable effect on global patterns. Perhaps GloSea5 and ECMF are struggling with this transition, though equally it could be that GEFS is taking it too far.

Currently the loss of eastward momentum is more than would be ideal; the 'take-off' in amplification could do with being into phase 8. I have seen MJO propagation underestimated enough times in the past to see this is as genuinely possible, but it might be that we have to settle for a 7/8 event. Perhaps slightly more emphasis on blocking to the N/NE with cold air advancing from the E than would be the case during a phase 8/1 which favours blocking more to the NW with northerlies affecting the UK.

Either way, spring is looking increasingly likely to be hard to find during the first week or so of March 2016, perhaps longer than that. To me that is a real shame... unless we can go as far as March 2013 but with a blizzard hitting my back yard instead of the Channel Islands 

It's a poor set-up for snow because milder air is getting ahead of the PPN when the frontal alignment is at it is projected to be. Higher parts of the Pennines may get away with snow for longer, then again as the colder air catches up with the PPN, then this could also apply to to other areas as the system moves East.

Well no back down from the EPS as of yet (up to this morning's run) as still favoring a largely cool and cyclonic type flow towards the end of Feb into early March.

Today has the look of spring, and after this consistently wet and soggy winter, my thoughts are drawn ever more towards.

Analysis for Jan 15, '84.

Didn't it do this quite a lot last winter- successive blasts of real cold out of Labrador that modified massively in the hundreds of miles before Ireland?

Snow row ramping things up mid week. Interesting weather this week and plenty of variety on offer. 

interesting thought though- was the Atlantic so cold back then in 84? Will it make any difference at all this time round? Snow- rain- snow event? Who knows? Quite an interesting one for sure 

Blimey, even better for Manchester

Edit - less good for Liverpool, reflecting both its proximity to the coast and the colder air being from the east (although there doesn't seem a discernible difference in 850's - so probably a DP issue)

UKMO 72hour front overlay and approx 850hpa -5C isotherm.

Probably something wintry as it clears; I don't know if it will be organised enough to be all that interesting.

Wales and the West Midlands seem to be in the 'sweet spot' on this run 

Here are the actual 850s from that MetO frame:

Source: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=fr&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=TT850&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072

Does anyone think there is a possibility of a secondary low forming on that trough? Not much can change at this range, but an undercut is something that is difficult to forecast in advance, it seems to be trending that way