Okay then.

I think based on GFS and UKMO 12z run today, it looks like often chance of some cold days with night frosts as well as some less cold and brief spells of milder weather is predicted by GFS and UKMO 12z today.  Also they suggest sleet and snow showers or outbreaks that could affect those at 150metres and above, and in the Central and North NW and NE parts even below 150 metres there could be some sleet and snow occasionally, some laying on ground for some time..

The UKMO 144hr 21st Feb looks a good mild to cold transition with NW and Central to N UK faring good to see more cold conditions, and looks at first mild in SE and S, colder after 12z Sunday.  The following Week looks cold, with risk of wintry weather and by end of week may turn milder after 12z Thursday.

❄️🌨🌧⛅️😀😇.

Rain turns to snow on the backedge

0600 Thursday heavier snow across parts of England and Wales

12pm snow band not moving that fast , a covering for some

1800 still stuck giving some areas a white scene .................this is the GFS version

Still cold on Friday

Saturday and Sunday milder before cooler weather returns on Monday

Will ECM get a block up to Greenland ?

That chart looks none to mild for sure.

Well as much as GFS's enthusiasm for sustaining decent precipitation rates has little support from the high-res models this evening, it makes for a very entertaining compilation:

Some 24 hours of heavy rain followed by almost as long with snow falling across central England. Total precipitation is in the order of 40-50 mm for the hardest hit areas. Snow struggles to settle on the sodden ground though so accumulations are far from spectacular, though 10+ cm does cover a considerable area. Not that those charts can be trusted anyway!

Speaking of charts not to trust... just look how much the output for the start of next week has changed in the past few days:

That's a big dose of amplification to the mid-Atlantic ridge and downstream trough. Likely a consequence of the MJO/Kelvin wave finally getting on its bike and looking to transition into a full-blown event within the next few days. Today's update shows continued movement at warp speed away from Indonesia:

The impact on the expected atmospheric state can be read from how the GWO outlook has changed in the past couple of days:

Notice the shift in the longer term towards phase 5/6 as opposed to phase 0 (ill-defined). The associated increased AAM leads to expectations of increased amplification to the flow with weakened westerlies late Feb and into March. For some reason today's GFS 06z and 12z operational runs have failed to capture this properly; they've brought the Azores High into play strongly by around day 14, which is so far from what should be seen that it's laughable. By contrast, the 00z was an excellent effort indeed.

Actually I can see the problem with the 12z - the strat. vortex remains much stronger in the face of warming events and doesn't displace toward Eurasia anywhere near as much. Hopefully just a rouge run as that would cause some problems even with a strong MJO event in phase 7. Strong in phase 8 would put up a good fight but the model isn't taking it that far yet.

Unsure of ECM's direction from day 10 going forward, but a return to a NW-SE jet alignment should be a safe bet... or so the theory goes!

10cm will do nicely

But what I don't get SC is that the MJO is incoperated into the model anyway; so why wouldn't it fully capture the 7/8 MJO?

18z pushes the front through much quicker

GFS not going for the -7's thatthe Beeb suggest

METO faxes including 96H

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=48&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000

Quite a difference in temps between Scotland and England

GFS @ 192

ECM @192

Latest EC Monthly lends some additional weight to notion of a cold start to March. One to watch. 

Are the GFS temps urban ones? And the BBC extremes rural ones?

observation data for the MJO is far from perfect and the modelling has to work with a lot of assumptions.

With the basin wide El Niño and some jnterference from the warm Indian Ocean, resulting errors are even larger than usual tis season.

Having said that its the strat vortex that seems to be more responsible for the recent downturn in GFS longer range wrt cold and snow potential.

I love this............

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2762.gif

It should be entered in the book of GB climatology.

Well.....  

nearing the end of 3 snow starved winters one has to draw some ironic comfort.

Location Ellborough

Weston-super-Mare

Control starts March cold

All the usual suspects (Benson, Bournemouth, Shawbury) there but many others too, including towns and airports, so a widespread hard frost.

IMBYism

Covering for me perhaps?

Mild Saturday

Not so on Sunday......................that's a change

Saturday PPN

Sunday PPN

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A ridge of High pressure over England and Wales will decline away SE tonight and tomorrow as a complex cold frontal trough moves slowly SE across the UK reaching all but the far SE tomorrow decelerating as it does.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the South of the UK is 2000ft currently. Further North milder air for a time has pushed the freezing level up to nearer 6000ft and this narrowing zone of milder air will sink South and East across all areas over the 48hr period with rain and some snowfall over the hills both early and late in the rainfall period.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Some rain or showers at times with snow over hills. Temperatures mostly near or somewhat below average though with a few short milder interludes in the South.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream troughing down over the UK in the next couple of days will strengthen later in the week and thereafter with a surge West to East of the flow across the UK for most of next week. Thereafter it becomes more undulating again in the vicinity of 50-55deg North of the equator.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the chilly and in places wintry couple of days still to come gradually changing to milder Atlantic Westerlies over the weekend with some rain in places. That will not necessarily be the last of the cold weather though as on various occasions over the rest of the run the Westerly flow veers NW and brings down rather cold and showery conditions at times with snow in places especially over the North. There will also be some mild weather in the South and in general a theme towards drier weather for many late in the period as High pressure builds across the UK with some night frosts in places.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run also shows a strong Atlantic influence to the weather pattern across the UK through the next few weeks. On this run rather cold conditions look more common than not with chilly NW flows repeatedly spreading down across the UK behind passing depressions with rain and wintry showers at times for many. The run doesn't really support the rise of pressure across the UK either late in the period, instead maintaining occasionally windy and wet conditions with rain and wintry showers still probable for most. Any milder conditions n this run look most restricted to short periods across the South only.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show West or NW winds the most likely scenario in 14 days between High pressure well to the SW and Low pressure close to the North and NE. Rain, showers, wintry on hills remain the main theme expected with as much as nearly a 70% to 30% split in favour of this weather type with the 30% showing High pressure somewhat closer to the SW with resultant drier conditions.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a strong Westerly flow developing across the UK over the weekend as Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South and SW take control. Rain at times over the weekend looks likely to give way to showery and colder conditions again by the start of the new week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today replicate the raw data reasonably well bringing milder Atlantic Westerlies to all over the weekend following the complex and in places wintry trough structure likely to move slowly East across England and Wales tomorrow and Thursday. Milder air is then held across the South later in the weekend while the North becomes colder again at times with wintry showers in places.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today brings the UK back into the pattern of weather that the UK has endured for much of the Winter over the weekend as Low pressure passing to the North of Scotland brings spells of rain at times and milder temperatures mixed with colder spells with showers, wintry on hills in the North next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM follows a similar route with regard to the milder Atlantic Westerlies establishing towards and over the weekend with rain at times for many before a change back to colder conditions return early next week with strong Westerly winds turning NW'ly and bringing wintry showers and night frosts to many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning is by far showing the most complex weather pattern as although the theme of milder air chasing the current cold pool of air away East towards the weekend is underlined by all output it is by far the end of the chill as after a weekend of rain at times this run shows a strong and cold NW flow developing early next week with wintry showers, heavy in the North and West and this leading into a complex and slacker pattern when almost anything can happen but most likely to stay cold with rain, sleet and snow a risk in all areas at times later next week. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is compiled from a mix of options this morning ranging from Low pressure to the NE and NW all providing largely unsettled weather across the UK with rain or showers at times, wintry on hills at times especially in the North with High pressure in home territory towards the Azores.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The overall theme remains for a Westerly Atlantic based pattern around Low pressure likely in 10 days time with rain at times and temperatures close to or below average especially in the North.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO and GFS at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.8 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.9 pts to UKMO at 89.7 pts and GFS at 89.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.6 pts to 65.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 GFS leads today at 52.4 pts to ECM's 50.8 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  The conditions across the UK in the immediate future command the most interest still this morning as a complex and decelerating Low pressure trough edges ESE down across the UK tonight and tomorrow. With cold air ahead of it and behind it any milder air is being squeezed out and a messy mix of rain, sleet or snow could result the latter most likely over the hills. Then remaining rain and snow over the SE on Thursday will be pushed away East by a strengthening Jet stream bringing milder air across the UK by the weekend with rain at times for many. Then as we look forward to next week there is a lot of support for another spell of windy and wet weather across the UK but also some support for colder NW'ly spells to develop in between as well when the return of wintry showers and night frosts look possible. ECM has also thrown a curve ball this morning and developing cold and unstable air further later in it's run following a cold and strong NW'ly although this theme doesn't have too much support from it's ensemble and mean chart. Alternatively GFS shows the chance of High pressure across the UK later on also bringing colder weather but under that scenario sunny days and night frosts look more likely. So that's where we are this morning with a lot of indecision on the specifics beyond this weekend but I feel a changeable Westerly or at times NW'ly pattern is favoured from early next week with a mix of weather types ranging from slightly mild and wet conditions to colder weather with showers, wintry in the North.       

Next Update Wednesday February 17th 2016 from 09:00