Thanks Martin -very good summary both short and longer term of a complex situation .GEFS does not suggest a return to full bodied south westerlies.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=42&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=2

GFS has some snow falling as far south as south coast-do i believe it?No.

The 6z continues the theme, although not digging the snow as far south as the 0z.

No doubt further revisions will follow to scale back the widespread snow risk.

Looking at GFS, even the "high res" version, for localised snow risk is like trying to find your glasses using Google Earth.

I'll look at the high-res charts instead. HIRLAM quite keen on snow even quite far south.

But ARPEGE having none of it except on the Chilterns really.

06z continues the 'slider' theme scenario as per the 00z ECM (briefly) and the NAVGEM. Looks like the north will stay pretty cold for a while, moving south at times.....

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016021606/gfsnh-0-216.png?6

Well certainly not a return to the 14'c and 15c we saw back in December or January - But still more north westerly so cooler. - Great news for Scottish ski resorts.

Just looking at this chart in the middle of March:

Run this sequence from 9th March:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=534&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

Then looked towards the end of March - hmm,....quite a blocking easterly eh? - We can't have 4 months of record breaking rain and warmth surely!?!?? 

Look at above chart and remember march 2013- familiar?

MARCH 2016:

A long way off but does look similar set up doesn't it?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0

Yep another slider scenario from GFS  followed by activity from the east.

Yes, a disappointingly cool outlook here once again in the 12z GFS. Gone is any sign of the mild weekend up here. Cool but not really cold enough to be wintry.

A chilly Met/o 12z.

Wintry showers possible.

Interesting 12zs so far. Much more amplified and quite a potent cold pool to tap into, albeit moderated by the time it gets here

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016021612/gens-0-0-168.png

GFS control for next week

Another snow event possible somewhere in England as the runner low hits the cold air

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016021612/gfs-0-360.png?12

We've been waiting for HLB all winter and now it comes in Spring! (maybe)

Ian B was still right though. "no HLB this winter"

Good to see another Scandi trough on the cards now

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_348_mslp850.png?cb=948

I realise it's a long way ahead but I was impressed by the extent of that Easterly fetch from the N Siberian coast to Greenland in the GFS 12z. Imagine that shifting south!

GFS continues to show March starting cold.................Deepest FI  but worth a mention

One never knows, a repeat of 2008 could be on the cards (cold spell in March on the back of a mild winter).

ECM 12z looking very unsettled and at times chilly with a southerly tracking jet once more.

500/1?

Evens

I must admit that when looking at the ECM 12z op run while it was coming out, I was thinking to myself" Why oh why couldn't we have had model runs like this in the semi-reliable timeframe back in December?

Just why

Must admit I'll be rooting for GFS to be as wrong as it usually is at that range and for us to get some quiet, mild weather instead. My store of optimistic snow hunting enthusiasm has run out

Before FI and it looks like we're fairly certain to get a fair few days of cool and unsettled weather - cold incursions more common up North although still some frosts etc. down South too. I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow about pretty much anywhere at points - GFS OP has that surprise snowfall look about it to me. Can't say more chillyish damp stuff is too appealing but at least the sun is starting to feel genuinely pleasant down here now so any quieter interludes should be very nice indeed

One line posts that contribute nothing to the thread will continue to be deleted

Members responsible for these breaches in spite of continual reminders risk the same fate.

All I can say to anyone hoping for a cold March after such a mild winter is 'Good Luck' mild winters are nearly always followed by a mild March particularly in a El Niño year so I fully anticipate a mild month with just one or two potent PM shots.

This winter has been as predictable as any I can remember and was always going to be mild from start to finish.

To compensate I think we will get an early spring with some nice warm days after mid month.

Andy

I wouldn't be too sure of that Andy, tbh. The 1994/95 winter, although not an El Nino season, was a mild one overall but March 1995 came in below average. That is still one of the most snowy March's I can remember experiencing in my part of the world, even more so than March 2013.

On topic, and the models are starting to look rather different in FI to what they have done for much of the winter. What I can say for sure is that as things stand, a return to the kind of persistent exceptional mildness we saw in December and a re-run of February 1998 (as predicted by some not long ago) look rather unlikely. I would rather that March isn't too warm anyway; we had a cracking March in 2012 and we all know what happened thereafter don't we!