Well now that is a very fast and large drop in dew points that GFS has for Sunday night.
This reflects the sharpness and intensity of the front and hence the heavy snow potential even in the far south. Basically it's like the 'thundersnow' event of 2004 but as yet not looking quite so intense and without the impressive accumulations (for such a short period) that were seen back then.
Weirdly enough, the next day has a strong northerly flow with uppers near -5*C, yet the south is predicted to hit the high single digits. The Arctic really is being robbed of its depth of cold by the U.S. (again...!).
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser
Yeah, I think today's difference between 12z GFS and 12z UKMO tells half of what they are going to show in the next 72hrs, we have not had this Thundersnow in London since way back in the 24 Jan 2004 (correction) ahem..London Snow event rain fell for 1& half hour then heavy snow for 1 and half hour after, with CC and CG lightning and Thunderstorms- that was a rare event indeed in late January.
NE USA was very cold indeed, but they are less cold last 48 hrs and the fact is South USA is warming up, and I note West and NW USA is getting more West SW flow and much needed rain and this flow has lifted the intense mid Feb Cold dry spell, rain with some parts had sleet/ snow and freezing rain, early on this week- and I can see East Coast mid Atlantic USA is seeing warmer Southerlies still a bit cold in New York, less Cold in Washington, and last 3 days NE USA Newfoundland NE New Hampshire New England NE side got rain not snow, it was snow in North Central USA Monday Sunday to Tuesday- this came in from Western NW USA NE Pacific LA Seattle Vancouver side.
There has been High Pressure in East USA today, as I see it there a band of mild rain light rain cloud in NW Atlantic to just off ESE USA, and SE of that is that Mid North Atlantic High that has been sitting out there in South SE USA and West to SW in West Mid North Atlantic particularly since this past Monday to current day, quite a big one- but this High will have Low Pressure going across it and will turn us colder particularly by Monday next week, I see a secondary polar front /trof heading SE from West Mid NW UK straight across Wales and then Midlands then SE UK this coming Monday 22Feb.
Theoretically and more likely the minimum temp in London next Sunday night should be of 1 deg. C, and I'd be confident that after Sunday's max of 14 C, Monday 22 Feb max for London should be 6 deg. C, with a -2 deg c low to I hope to see for Monday night/ Tuesday morning.
The Sub 528 airmass covers whole of UK by Monday both on GFS and on UKMO and with -5 to 6 t850 or even -7 further NE and North UK it looks like a day with increased potential of rain-sleet and hail-snow flurry showers this is a very good similarity to March and April 2006 cold NW plunges!!.
Just got the pics out so it focus on the text instead that should be fine in this case, rest assured.
Edited by user
18 February 2016 00:41:21
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Reason: Unspecified
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.