http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016021912/ECH1-192.GIF?19-0

the NH view is better. As sight for sore eyes!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016021912/ECH0-216.GIF?19-0

a tad chilly

I wonder what the coldest 29th February was? Perhaps we have a chance of beating it. Would be a nice way to end a dreadful winter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016021912/ECH1-240.GIF?19-0

Nice!

ECM is a beauty

if only

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016021912/ECM0-240.GIF?19-0

Darren (Retron) will be pleased to see the return of a cold easterly. Except its not mid winter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016021912/J192-21.GIF?19-12

JMA provides the cherry on the top to complete a fine set of 12zs. Will it all be gone in the morning?

Decent cold at last

1936 -12.8 middle England I think but Kev would know for sure

Nope Andy W said winter was over yesterday.

😀

And to be honest I quite agreed with him lol- quite some time ago.

early days, let's see if it's all still there by tomorrow 

looks better close up Marcus just t120 away lets hope its not more horrid Jam

Where the F did that ecm come from the coldest of the entire winter. Stunning run!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

120 hours doesnt seem that far does it ,,,,,,...................but its a lifetime if your waiting for cold to turn up

I think this has all come as a bit of surprise, perhaps a response to the MJO but unless the ECM/JMA and by implication UKMO solutions continue being shown into the weekend, then we must continue to see the GFS as the more likely outcome.

Ian, would you still say the same about GFS if the roles were reversed and ECM & UKMO were showing a milder outcome and GFS the colder one?

This outcome? http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016021912/114-583UK.GIF?19-12 

Well as I said last night, the worst possible outcomes have tended to verify this winter, what we are seeing here is built on the loose premise of the jet going far enough South and enough of a loop over of heights to get us on the cold side of the PFJ.

This is creeping up on us. . Nothing exceptional at the moment but the signals are there.

indeed, but upstream patterns have to just click into place just at the right time for anything to kick off our end. It's always the case, but I would hesitate on calling cold (given the teasing nature of this winter) until 48 hrs out. GFS highlights what Ian is saying, and I understand his hesitation. For once I think the jet will dig far enough south- but it's the rest of the jigsaw I'm worried about. Given some good charts are at 120, we don't have too long to wait. And another word of caution- these things invariably downgrade nearer the time. 

It could well be that the SSW, which I believe commenced about a fortnight ago, plus the changes in the MJO which James (Stormchaser) has spoken about often, are both beginning to have some kind of influence on the model output. Given these events, maybe we stand a better chance of heights rising noticeably to the north than was the case back in early January when the models last suggested this as a possibility.