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The Beast from the East
20 February 2016 16:19:54

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016022012/UN120-21.GIF?20-17


UKMO 120


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 February 2016 16:21:53

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022012/gfsnh-0-168.png?12


Well, she has kept us waiting all winter. Maybe finally we will see some HLB


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 February 2016 16:24:44

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016022012/UW144-21.GIF?20-17


UKMO 144


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
20 February 2016 16:26:11

Weather type GFS Fr 26.02.2016 06 GMT


Wintry picture if verified


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
20 February 2016 16:27:07

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022012/gfs-2-186.png?12


Fine margins, but maybe some snow pushing up from France


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
20 February 2016 16:28:08

Once we are through Monday a cold week is on the cards




Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


JACKO4EVER
20 February 2016 16:29:39


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016022012/UW144-21.GIF?20-17


UKMO 144


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


bizarre chart!


cold and messy

The Beast from the East
20 February 2016 16:30:35

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022012/gfsnh-1-192.png?12


can we tap into a better cold pool?


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
20 February 2016 16:34:40

the really cold air is on the other side of the atlantic. Shame, when we have the perfect synoptics


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
20 February 2016 16:36:17



Feeling cold in the strong NElies


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
20 February 2016 16:40:49


Snow on Friday JFF


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
20 February 2016 16:44:02


Next weekends NEly flow brings a wintry feel


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
20 February 2016 16:46:02


The wintry feel continues into the following week


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Shropshire
20 February 2016 16:48:10

Very interesting 12z out put thus far, Greece looks warm 


 


The UKMO seems to have a West based NAO set-up at day 6, but this would transfer East at days 7 and 8 IMO.


 


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gooner
20 February 2016 16:49:39


Start of March is cold


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Essan
20 February 2016 16:52:53


Weather type GFS Fr 26.02.2016 06 GMT


Wintry picture if verified


Originally Posted by: Gooner 



Just shows rain here


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Nordic Snowman
20 February 2016 17:10:21

Some good charts for the UK - regarding wintry potential. I think parts of the N, NE and E could definitely see some snow - as well as higher parts elsewhere. Winter not over yet (for the UK)


Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Shropshire
20 February 2016 17:13:02


Some good charts for the UK - regarding wintry potential. I think parts of the N, NE and E could definitely see some snow - as well as higher parts elsewhere. Winter not over yet (for the UK)


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


 


For some it hasn't started yet Mike 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
20 February 2016 17:21:30

Next Week the Northeast UK could see wintry showers, Particularly  Monday to Wednesday.


SW Central West and SE parts of the U.K., North winds dry cold with chance of night frosts across here and also other parts as well, mainly dry with some mix of cloudy and sunny spells and light winds by Wednesday and Thursday.


Thursday the NW Central and NE areas turn dry stay cloudy and near average Feb Temperatures, less cold in SW and South- all areas weak Low Pressure slap bang.


By Friday and Saturday merging PV Low's with NW Atlantic and NNW Arctic and Greenland High Pressure, and Low Pressure extends SE leaving NW Atlantic blocked by High P, with Northern Europe and UK seeing some Cold Low Pressure, some parts of SW UK will see cold air mixed with less cold SW then Cyclonic winds!, if the Cold air gets to us, by then at 144-168 hrs FI then we need to catch colder airmass from our North NE and NW.


It has always been an above average winter with regard to min and max. Temperatures UK CET, January looks set to be the colder month for this winter, I do not have much excitement for rest of February 2016 et all!, it won't be snowing, at least for the next 144hrs ahem.... USA has for last 3 days and today seeing less cold conditions and not much rain or snow, although some borderline snow in less cold temperatures has occurred, but some very mild to warm air across large parts in Central South USA extending East NE SE and SW but still fairly chilly cold in NW Central W USA, away from the SW of them, this also been true since last 4 days North East USA seen lesser and lesser cold weather as days progress this past week including today, even SE and E to Central Great Lakes have now got just odd less cold weather!!.


Long may this setup - last and continue to affect us and Europe, it has n the last 4 days been also on the mild 546 dam sector with High Pressure also affect west to east over South and SW to SE Europe as well.


More NE Atlantic UK side Low Pressure Central and Southern UK yesterday and today- but it has rain a lot today in London, and some late yesterday.


😅😀😎☁️🌤🌫.


Some wintry showers today up north UK in... N. Ireland and Scotland some with hail sleet and thunder!.


The ECMWF model is expected to downgrade Thursday's T120hr chart today, the 00z run was not wintry at allzzzz.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
roger63
20 February 2016 17:56:36

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=180&code=15&mode=0&carte=0


Avery strong suite of ensembles at 180h next weekend.This one looks close to a classsic chamnnel low.


However we are already seeing a downgrade in snow mentions from METO for the early part of next week and given the lack of any really cold air another downgrade seems likelylater in the week.

tallyho_83
20 February 2016 17:58:13


 


JUST FOR FUN! - A CHANNEL low next Saturday/Sunday. Temperatures at or below freezing throughout most of the UK:


 



It's JFF. This will be downgraded like all previous runs during the last cooler spell - NOT being a pessimist but it's reality unfortunately.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gusty
20 February 2016 18:08:57

The longer term ensembles have looked good for cold for a while now. The initial colder signal picked up a few days ago was weak but is now growing. A trend is now appearing in the models to create HLB and lower heights to our south or south west. It is my opinion that we are heading towards the coldest period of this 'non winter'. A few surprises could be in store. .


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
20 February 2016 18:10:14

The 500 hpa and 850 hpa GFS and ECMWF Ensemble Means, the Op and Control Runs will matter a lot in the forecasting of optimistic cold wintry weather. T144,T168 Thursday and Friday: Cold and Frosty for all on Thursday night...., then Friday the colder air gets lesser and we are sitting between to Weakened But potent Low P. Troughs to our East NE and West SW.


The Output is trusted upto 120hrs, at that time the UK will be at its coldest for next week, with widespread night frost and low max temps, by Friday Southern areas will start to get 7-8 deg Celsius by day.


 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
SJV
20 February 2016 18:15:11


The longer term ensembles have looked good for cold for a while now. The initial colder signal picked up a few days ago was weak but is now growing. A trend is now appearing in the models to create HLB and lower heights to our south or south west. It is my opinion that we are heading towards the coldest period of this 'non winter'. A few surprises could be in store. .


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Agreed  The finer details such as just how cold will the air be and snow risks etc should be taken seriously nearer any 'event'. For now it's good to see the general trend to 'cold' conditions. With that, hopefully a decent snow event for those starved of it this winter will follow 


The JFF snow charts (courtesy of Gooner ) will dance around the output and excite the excitable; lets keep our fingers crossed we see such charts within the 48hr timeframe soon!  

Solar Cycles
20 February 2016 18:16:44




Just shows rain here


Originally Posted by: Essan 

That will be down to ARW. Andy's Regional Warming.😜


I think the GFS is up to its old fools gold again though it's certainly looking a more wintry picture than what we've seen thus far this winter, away from Scotland that is. 

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