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[quote=SJV;769495]
Agreed The finer details such as just how cold will the air be and snow risks etc should be taken seriously nearer any 'event'. For now it's good to see the general trend to 'cold' conditions. With that, hopefully a decent snow event for those starved of it this winter will follow
The JFF snow charts (courtesy of Gooner ) will dance around the output and excite the excitable; lets keep our fingers crossed we see such charts within the 48hr timeframe soon!
Winters sting in its tail and looking quite probable. Looking at the wetterzan charts the low hangs about for 3 days and quite a cold feed possible for some who like it.
Apologies if it has not been mentioned already, I can see very very light northerly flow at next week Tuesday by GFS UKMO and latest 12z ECMWF 72hr charts, the Sub 528 dam line looks set to cover all areas and we'll not see precipitation at all, it will be Cold and Frosty nights evenings and mornings Monday to Wednesday 22-24th, and we'll see clear and pleasantly chilly or cool sunshine by day.
And we see a Slow moving Low about 200 miles north of the Azores Islands (edit) with its 546 dam line slow moving, it moves slowly SE from 72 to 96 hrs Tues/Weds, with proper Cold light northerly flow over whole of Britain and 1010 isobar on east coast with 1025 millibar N-S aligned isobar of North Atlantic High over Western Eng. and Wales and across Eatern Irish Sea- winter re gains hold of our weather by this Monday onwards.
😆😀.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=180&code=15&mode=0&carte=0
Avery strong suite of ensembles at 180h next weekend.This one looks close to a classsic chamnnel low.
However we are already seeing a downgrade in snow mentions from METO for the early part of next week and given the lack of any really cold air another downgrade seems likelylater in the week.
Originally Posted by: roger63
??
Not sure I understand that as I havent heard of any snow mention from the Met for next week, so surely a downgrade would be fairly hard
Cold air right across us at 96h
ECM producing something different , a lot of uncertainty.
ECM at 168
GFS at 168
Originally Posted by: Gooner
Brr, that really is like cold airmass it certainly will bring us prolonged night and pm and am part evening night and morning frosts and quite below normal daytime max. Temperatures and wintry sunshine galore. Ramp mode without snow showers at 72-96 hrs stage for much of the U.K.
Originally Posted by: Shropshire
Whats the betting ECM sits a HP right on top of the UK
LP spins away SE UK still cold
ECM ends cold with some decent frosts one should imagine
Notice from the charts above how much the Polar Vortex has been diminished in size and strength compared to earlier in the winter.
Tonight's ECM has potential blizzard conditions for much of Ireland for next Saturday of course, the chance of that actually happening is less than zero.
For some Saturday night fun take a look at the current CFS run (Sat 06Z) between 360 and 500 hrs.
I know the model is much maligned, but seriously? I mean, damn 😀😜
Snow Snow and more snow
96h the cold air really gets going
LP and cold air over the UK
Easterly and cold air
Nect Saturday looks bitter in the strong winds
A proper winters day
And into Sunday
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Ideal
If only it was December!
As things stand this looks ideal for a snowy spell - Temperatures of +1c or +2c max by next Saturday with low pressure to the south across Bay of Biscay and Channel could bring some sleet/wet snow inland? - Won't take this too literally because we have all bee let down before: