UK 120

What a difference a week can make

Decent from UK at 144

Looks like we're entering a cold and blocked pattern then.

Detail remains uncertain though.

Indeed.  If experience has taught us one thing this winter, it would be not to take cold charts beyond around 3 days at all seriously.  Its been a winter of watering down the cold thus far. 

Expectations remain low from this quarter.  I will take any model that offers some spring sunshine and warmth; but I will also accept with good grace (edit - and a pinch of salt) - a model that serves up some decent cold as we enter the thermally lagged late winter period with the seas at their coldest and the Arctic Ice approaching its maximum.

The 12z GFS and UKMO are showing the main Retrogression and SSE Tracking Polar Low on our D O O R S T E P, just hope we get it.  The Fun and Games are today starting at Friday 27th and Saturday Sunday 28th and 29th Feb. Leap year extra day as well. Cold and Frosty Thursday and Friday, proper Sub. 528 dam air at 500 hPa, and it looks set to occur all next Week and we get SE Tracking System to Spain and France, SW then S SE UK and also rest of Central U K Winds Very cold SE Friday, then very cold East ENE flow during the A F O R E M E N T I O N E D Weekend.

That I hope remains the case- you never know as the event comes it get modified and shunted in various directions.

This situation needs watching.   😆😂🌤😏.

If we get cold and frosty High Pressure then freezing cold Low Pressure at long last then the kids will enjoy it but only if,,,, it happened.  Where and how not clear yet but it looks not that hard to tell given the -7 at 850 hPa air is expected Thursday to Sunday.

Yes whether idle, it clearly looks like a very clearly looks set to be a week for our good old and new Arctic Ice to reach a good extent and   thickness.  Very Good large Northern Blocking Highs at T120 and T144, for North Canada and the Arctic Cirle plus NE Europe seeing some cold winter temperatures right now or if not more next 7 days or so, they're surely enjoying it. very amazing charts being forecasted, good job done by Stratospheric Warming and the Easing of El Niño and developing Maunder Minimum and reduced solar activity- this is all making this occur.

This time we do have a Pro's view thanks to Ian . Not that it will happen this way but good to see and hear their thoughts

What that should hopefully mean is that there'll be more by way of nostly dry weather on offer than has often been the case over the past three months!

The more I look at this chart the more I realise just  how good it is. 4 weeks ago this site would be in meltdown

The transition synoptics this week don't too dissimilar to that which occurred at the end of January '86, which heralded in an epic, month long easterly.

There isn't too much value in pattern matching IMO. Less sea ice, a record breaking warm Arctic and poor cold source to the NE all dictate that this Feb is quite different to 1986.

Yep I know that, just remarking how similar the transition phase is (or will be if forecast goes to plan) between the two episodes.

This is me really repeating on what everyone had typed up so far, but when outputs like these does slip into the far reaches of the UKMO range, then it's time to actually sit up and take a bit of interest. This has convergence written all over it but still a "let's wait and see" thing when it comes to dewpoints, precipitation, 850's, etc, etc.

Totally agree with your comment.The 144h METO and GFS have easterlies but LP too far south to generate much precipitation.Of course things can change but with the synpotics that are very tricky to forecast,particularly the tracks of LP's and the generation of precipitation and its type then the 3 day rule on cold charts is the view to take.

Prefer the UKMO solution, if something like the GFS occurs then the mild continent would give a limited shelf life to a 'cold' easterly, we need to see High pressure orientated in such a position that we can source colder air from the N/NE.

For the south I think you're pretty spot on - I'd have thought those in the North should do okay

Still, interesting viewing I guess

Well according to the weather for the week ahead at lunchtime maximum temps down here will be in the range 6-9c all week so way to mild for snow. Just your typical February fayre really.

Fits in with what GEFS is forecasting, although it's worth mentioning that in this setup it'll only peak for a few hours - the nights are still longer than the days and the mornings will still be noticably cold, as will evenings.

ECM is showing colder highs than GEFS but it does seem prone to underestimate temperatures in a sunny / low dewpoint situation.

Cold

I'm happy with the set up at least

Cold start to March with snow around

The ECM charts deserve much more of an audience