What I have Observed and noted is this:
The UKMO is led often by the GFS at 120 and 144hr, but to be honest they shake with their scores on some occasions but beyond that only we have GFS gives us pretty good very often every winter/ spring better idea of what we will get more often correct after 120hrs.
I can clearly say they boast little difference in guessing outcomes at 120-144, they both overdo the depth and intensity and temperature, then backtrack - this shows up in the 168-192hr time frame!!, They tend to compete equally but spotting trends GFS FI leads by a mile...
We have had a very busy winter Jetstream wise, and the gushing out of predicted cold pools and replaced with just neither mild nor very cold setup has delivered a very fair balance with enough windy wet weather some bad, but it like the winters gone - since 1995 I would say, that it was very often colder before and in some periods after it has swayed up and down between cold and snowy to very rainy and stormy to often less very cold and frosty.
The Weather Forecasters and us the Public now are carrying on facing this average less cold less frosty and less snowy winters- this is flowing through across all planet with month by month and year on year rises in Global Mean Temperature and the falls are there they tend to occur during La Nina's - We have had a lot of rises and hence it has changed our current forecast enthusiasm as it is often not much to explain any interesting bits as they are not the regular occurrence - I miss the long cold spells with severe frosts and below freezing max temperatures.
I look at the Arctic Ice Maps coverage and regularly note in my head that it reads to me saying the cover has sustained in Winter and Spring- that's good but early Summer to Mid Autumn is a long melt period ahem (bearing in mid that after Mid-March the Arctic sea ice melts only slowly hence we often get cold March months(half the time with the other half (50-60%) of which warm mild occurs 30%, other 15-20% being average lol..., but I accept that the ice reaches minimum in around late August- Early to mid September (Varies) but it starts building by Mid October or early November and by March middle it reache it's maximum.
It starts to melt rapidly from about June onwards- The Svalbard Snow Capped Mountains I have watched their webcam for several years now- sorry for being O/T, but from Late October it gets snow Covered!!, and that starts melting come late May or 2nd week June( varies two or three weeks...).
The UKMO and GFS Model forecast I comment here on is often a very good set of chapters and the boring uninteresting useless cool weather occurs when it not supposed to!.
We continue to see our periodic swings every 3-4 years such as waiting for a proper snow event, that does sometimes take a few or a couple years be absent but then I have seen in 2004-2011 that period plenty of short snow cover episodes have occurred.
A lot of this disruption to the norm is because of the Sceuro Bartlett and Azores High and Constant cool not cold Zonal flow, and the NAD Shutdowns have due to recent now fading El Niño not as cold and snow as we had in the Aforementioned in this mentioned snow events that I recall having settled for some 1 to 2 days maximum only for this case in my location.
But regular notable air frosts can and still and Will Do Happrn as Wanstead Park is close by last night it dropped to -3.8, I checked the report at 07:40 a.m., and right now and since 10:30 p.m. It has fallen back to -2.5 deg. C already, there is low frost hollow close to the up and down area - with Wanstead Park Golf Course dotted about in area both at hollow and at upper part near that hollow...
😆😄💤🌤🌫
Edited by user
25 February 2016 00:54:09
|
Reason: Unspecified.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.