Can't blame Gooner for posting model output charts in the model output discussion. I have to say though that whoever produces those useless snowflake charts should, in the modern parlance, be 'held to account'. I wish I knew what that phrase really means, but whatever it is, it seems that no one ever is, whether they be bankers, politicians, policemen, social workers, numerical weather modellers...

Not all airmasses that are -5 to -6*C at the 850 hPa level are the same... even between maritime airmasses you can get differences - it all depends on the amount of modification at the lower levels by the sea, which depends on the track, time spent over water, etc.

This is why there are occasions of a low moving in from the NW and delivering a dumping of snow in mid-March despite 850's of just -2*C or so. The surface layers of the airmass managed to remain cold enough, in a way which we seem unable to achieve this year.

GFS is yet again coming up a scenario at about a weeks' range in which we do manage it to some extent, and again it's from a trough diving down from the NW and on into Europe. How many more of those until we actually get anywhere? In theory it remains possible to 'win' until about mid-April, even in the south, but increasingly that becomes restricted to nighttime events with a rapid thaw the following day.

To mitigate (let alone remove) a thaw we need either very thick cloud cover under stagnant cold air, or a continental flow of air with dew points well below zero and air temps within about 5*C of freezing (exact values depending on dew points). That looks to be the most difficult thing of all to achieve within the next few weeks and would require a strong and long-lived push of high heights toward Siberia via Svalbard, drawing deep cold air all the way across from central Asia. That's a huge ask to say the least.

You can see where I'm coming from by looking at the 12z ECM at +192:

The cold air over Scandinavia is just too limited in intensity and extent. 

In the context of Scandinavia, it's a small area of normality surrounded by abnormally high temperatures.

Impressive what's going on in the far-eastern Mediterranean. Two days before hand the anomaly is +20*C:

 - which I've rarely seen in winter away from the high latitudes!

I'm rather given to think that we had our spring in December, at least going by the exceptionally mild temperatures we saw throughout that month.

It has to be said that these frequent cool NW'ly polar maritime airmasses are bringing some delightfully clean air, low dewpoints and more in the way of sunshine. In fact today represents the third consecutive day where we experienced virtually maximum sunshine. I think we have to go back as far as early October to experience such a fine spell of weather.

The increasing solar energy is providing 8-10c even on the days when uppers are sub -5c. This warming trend is spreading northwards by the day now. In a week or so's time here on the south coast the rays will be strong enough again to start giving a slight glow on the face again. 

18z rolling out and providing another spell of cool NW'lies after a wet Tuesday. Feeling warm  in the south with sunshine and shelter from the cool breeze.  

A guy I work with he is very ginger, and enjoys his gardening. Well Yesterday he came in clean shaved, and the skin that was recently covered in a goatee is noticeably paler then the rest which is already a shade of red.😳😂

It would be nice if that Azores would nudge a little further north east 🌞

That's interesting to know picturesareme. I'm not ginger and my earliest experience of 'rouging' was around 27/28th Feb 1990 in a fine spell of weather sunbathing on the beach next to a south facing wall.

Let's hope that Azores High nudges in next week..an extended spell of fine weather with lighter winds would be welcomed. 

some fine weather now might encourage more pollinating insects out which would be good seeing how everything is in bloom right now. 

I'm planning on mowing the lawn at the weekend given the cold and breezy conditions. This can only be testament to a very mild Winter 2015-16. It really has been desperate for those loving cold. It must seem strange that the best Winter Synoptics start turning up in March. Typical UK Temperate Climate and perfectly normal in my opinion.

Well, at least you enjoyed the coldest spell since 2013' - forecasted & experienced back in for a few days from mid January!! ;)

NOT

A chilly ECM this morning with northerlies, sliders, an easterly ending with what looks like a Northerly reload. 

The GFS develops the troughing too far West to advect cold uppers until later on so there is a lot to sort out beyond the initial Atlantic return on Tuesday, but the flat pattern being advertised notably by the ECM a couple of days ago has clearly been ditched.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A bank of Low pressure lies to the West of the UK with a frontal trough close to the SW. Through the next 24 hours this gets sucked away SE by Low pressure over Spain and the Med setting up a cold NE flow across the South for the weekend and a ridge of High pressure over Scotland and Northern Ireland moving South later on Sunday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK remains between 2000-3000ft with the highest levels across the far SW. Snowfall will be limited to high ground of Ireland and the high moors of the far SW today close to a frontal trough.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Rather cold with rain or showers at times with snow in places. Temperatures mostly below average with frosts at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream's main theme this morning illustrates a flow well South of the UK for much of the period blowing from Newfoundland all the way to the Med with the UK on the cold side of the flow until the second week when a shift to a cyclonic flow due to High pressure is shown to circumnavigate the UK.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the pattern of the weekend much as has been shown for days with a ridge of High pressure slipping South and cutting off a cold but dry east flow. Next week then shows a spell of rain from the West before cold and unstable air moves South across the UK with rain and snow for many. Then as the Low migrates to the South of the UK and pressure rises to the North a  cold easterly flow develops with wintry showers at times in the east and South with the return of sharp night frosts. The run then ends with High pressure from Greenland down across the UK with cold and benign conditions with severe night frosts in places. 

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run's theme is quite similar though there is a slower link into colder weather next week as a flatter pattern across the UK keeps Westerly winds with rain and showers and snow on hills before the main drift into cold weather occurs in the second week and with unstable air aloft in association with Low pressure to the South some sleet or snow looks very possible for some especially the South by then with severe night frosts for all in an East wind. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters today show High pressure being in control of the UK weather with the likely positioning close to the West indicative of a chilly North flow across the UK. However, other members have different positioning of this but all showing that chilly weather with a lot of dry conditions is far more likely than shown in recent days.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a ridge moving South over the weekend cutting off the cold NE wind across the South and replaces it with a milder Westerly flow with a spell of rain before colder showery NW'lies spread down across all areas by the middle of next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today follow the raw data well this morning with the Atlantic Westerlies making a comeback next week with a complex series of fronts moving ESE across the UK with rain followed by showers.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM today shows a similar pattern as the UKMO model as far as it goes bringing the milder and wetter conditions down across the UK early next week followed by cold and blustery NW wind with wintry showers and further spells of rain and sleet as a second Low moves down across the UK and develops further as it moves away to the SE setting up a cold and wintry NE flow with wintry showers and frosts at night towards the end of the period as pressure builds down from the NW by day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows increasingly unsettled weather next week too as the ridge following the cold East winds moves away South with winds swinging West or NW with rain or showers and snow on hills likely at times as we move deeper into next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM this morning continues to paint a cold start to March as this weekends cold and the early next week milder interlude are just precursors to a more pronounced unsettled and cold period with rain, sleet or snow at times especially later next week as winds swing more towards the East or NE the South in particular could feel bitter with wintry showers feeding across from Eastern coasts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart has maintained the trough down across the UK in 10 days time and with the Jet stream miles away to the South. As a result the weather would likely be unsettled and cold with wintry weather over the hills at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme continues to strengthen towards cold conditions as we move into March with rain, sleet or snow possible for many areas at some point or another.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.0 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 91.6 pts to UKMO at 89.5 pts and GFS at 87.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 69.0 pts to 65.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads today at 54.0 pts to GFS's 50.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  It is particularly ironic that the best cross model agreement for a period of cold weather from some mouth watering synoptics are delivered as we move out of Winter and into early Spring but that is what we have this morning. Bar a milder interlude lasting no more than a day or so early next week when a period of rain and strong winds moves through the vast majority of the next two weeks look cold with some interest for snow fans at times too. While the word 'cold' is used in a relative sense given that it is March next week the fact that the Winter has been so mild it will no doubt feel very cold at times and with a lot of unstable air likely to lie across the UK over the period there will possibly some of the most wintry scenes delivered for parts of the UK over this period especially over the hills and overnight. The South in particular look likely to see a cold East wind rather more coherently than the one we have this weekend by the second week with some wintry flurries blowing in from the East at times. All of this becomes possible due to the positioning of High pressure and the Jet Stream which powers SE across the Atlantic and down over Southern Europe displacing the Azores High further North across the Atlantic. Late in the period there is some suggestion that High pressure could ridge all the way back to Greenland and if this occurs the cold theme could be extended well into mid March. So for 'coldies' it's all good news from me today but for those thinking that a mild Winter would translate into a mild start to Spring you may well have to think again given the output shown at the moment. I'm not available for a report tomorrow and Sunday looks a little unlikely too at the moment but if not let's see whether Monday's report endorses a similar output as today or not and the prospect of cold remains as strong.           

Next Update Monday February 29th 2016 from 09:00

It's happened before though. March 2013 came after a winter which wasn't especially cold, apart from a coldish spell in mid-late January 2013 and March 1995, which was often quite wintry in nature here, came on the back of a mild winter. One might add March 2006 to the list as well.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022606/gfs-0-198.png?6

GFS returns to the idea of a GH. Seems the models are trying to decide on the next move

This is our best option for advecting deep cold uppers

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022606/gfs-1-204.png?6

We need to see these deep colours make their way south.

Digging around looking at available data from various sources, it seems that winter really does have the potential for a nasty sting in its tail.  The effects of the SSW that took place middle of February are starting to have an effect and what with another pulse due this week and noted by Maunder Minimum, it isn't over yet (for coldies that is).

The Stratospheric PV apparently has finally split, this if true will lead to a reveres of the current maritime mild air flow to a Northeasterly flow.  The PV stuck out in the North Atlantic will encourage Tropospheric PV North of Europe to sink south.

The real key to all this, is for the Troposphere and Stratosphere to join in a negative state, which I believe is very likely later this week.  With another 4 to 5 weeks left for this to play out I would expect the models to continue their current trend of an overall colder pattern for the foreseeable future.

Mid next week, currently looks set to be the point of change.  Caveat, if this all comes off it will take some time for the cold to filter down across Europe, but it will, pity its not earlier in the year but potential for a little bit of the white stuff is definitely there.

And a proper 'major' ssw this time with full wind reversal at 60N 10hPa forecast (although it could also be the final warming this winter):

yes it's all quite tame and marginal atm- mind you I'm enjoying the dry weather at long last! 

Some proper HLB showing in the charts now. GFS control for example

I think the main issue with the cold snaps we have had thus far is a variable wind direction. We cannot expect to get a cold feed if the wind changes direction every couple of days. HLB will give us relatively stable northerlies or north easterlies for longer. Without doubt the best charts of the 'winter'.

Imho get the 552 line over greenland and everything else will fall into place but if everything else falls into place without that 552 line it will be a dud. 

180hr clusters. Note the 552 line.

Half of the clusters have the 552 line over greenland by 180 hours (or 45%)

Maximun 500hpa heights over the course of the run over greenland. Imo 552 is the minimun we need for H(greenland)LB.

GFS: 568dm

ECMWF: 552dm

GEM: 562dm

NASAGEO5: 566dm

I'd say it looks pretty good, although perhaps a little worrying that the ECM is the only one that isn't really doing it.