Keep it nice and tidy please and feel free to discuss what you see

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Mild it is NOT.

bank  - That snow row for the West Midlands must be a record breaker!!  

Interesting how the Control flips quickly from the coldest (by the 8th) to one of the mildest quickly (by the 11th) in week two.

What's most striking is the lack of cold over europe at the end of Winter.

It is - as I've been saying for a while now 😊 - BUT I'm prepared to concede that snow potential has edged more into the marginal zone today for late this week. It will take a special mix of parameters but having dismissed it a few days ago I admit the risk is developing.

i would say it's still marginal- obviously height and any  overnight precipitation may help, but I would expect the southern contingent to still be disappointed. Further runs needed as we edge nearer the time 

Not sure a record, but I think the highest of the winter at such a close range.

Liverpool also hits the 17 on the 2nd/3rd March. The problem is that, whilst snow might fall, the chances of it sticking are low, whilst the possibility of it hanging around for even a few days is pretty much nil.

Saying that, TWO's very own 'Snow Depth' maps (disowned by Brian for being not very good, it has to be said) make nice viewing:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_51_uksnowdepth.png?cb=166

It's the highest number I can recall seeing for this area, but I don't check every run.  Precipitation of the white variety has a habit of missing us by about 20 miles to N/S/E/W (take your pick!) even when it's cold enough.  Even December 2010 took three glancing blows to get up to the 15-20cm lying snow in this area!    

Borderline temperatures and on a NW'erly can deliver nicely here (for temporary heavy wet snow) on the rare occasion that everything falls in to place just nicely.  Well inland and with reasonable altitude (given to our east it's downhill all the way to Holland ) means we can have frozen ground from overnight frost, we're well away from the milder coastal fringes and being at around 150m can make the difference compared sub 100m for example.

That said, I still expect nothing other than perhaps hail.    

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016022912/gfs-1-144.png?12

Better cold pool to the north on this run

I think many of us will see some falling snow in the coming days. Wont settle in most places, but you cant expect that at this time of year

Have posted before that of all the slider LP,s this weeks with  the synoptics of LP to the east and a northerly/ north east flow represents the best bet for some snowfall albeit still marginal for low ground in the north and  no go for the south.

Nah, that green is the lack of snow cover 

Hoping to see some snow here this week. As Neil says, the models have started trending in the right direction this week, which is actually really frustrating given the lack of true cold to tap into! 

Met/o 12z.

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Cold with wintry showers.

Well- that makes me feel different. Wouldn't mind another March 2012, as long as it doesn't calve a summer 2012.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_372_uk2mtmp.png?cb=298

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GEM builds a stronger block.

GFS control has extensive northern blocking for mid march

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2016022912/navgem-0-180.png?29-19

NAVGEM looks chilly as well

There's an increasing tendency by some posters to make inflammatory comments which are derailing this thread. 

For the purpose of clarity several are on two strikes, so if you want to chance your arm again, you might wish to consider the consequences beforehand........... 

Sorry Doc, I didn't see this before posting my last one.. It took a while to type up 😊😊

Anyways......

In the reliable part of the models we're chilly or cold, although not overly cold. There's a mild blip to get over tomorrow before we settle back in to chilly and unsettled with more chances of snow for some although a diminishing risk the further south you are.

I guess it doesn't need to be mentioned as it's been rather painstakingly remarked upon lately but in the South the colder air aloft isn't enough to stop daytime temps lifting up to 'meh' average ish levels but under clear skies night time temps will be noticeably more below average, leading to a colder than average CET return

The flip side to the less impact down South of course being the North is always at a higher risk of colder temps and snow, although I'd guess even here height is an important factor. (Must admit not checked too much about impacts further up the country, feel free to correct!)

Other than the odd outlier sadly there's no sign of any prolonged spring warmth in the models - as outliers go though I do like the GFS Op - settled and fairly warm would be lovely if unlikely set against the model output as a whole. (Not to mention deep FI to boot).

I think the Met Office could do with a proper realistic update - From what I can see is some very spring-like weather as we head towards the middle of March..! But mind you we did see 16.5c in Exeter on 21st Feb.

And why would the MetO want to update their long range forecast based on that? They have been undeniably and unswervingly accurate for pretty much the last three months IMO with their 6-30day updates, as has been shown many times on here recently.

The enthusiasm recently for some posters to suggest particular weather types will prevail based on a few charts taken in isolation has become laughable. Mind you I say recently when actually it's always happened and likely always will. 

As a long time lurker on this page, I just wanted to say how much I enjoy Gooners JFF postings. They are what they say on the tin, and this place is a less colourful place when he's not posting imo. They show the extremes of what's possible and how, sometimes how horribly they can and do go wrong. Also they do spark model discussions, and I thought that was pretty much the point. Really enjoy the discussion on these pages, even if I have no idea of what you're all talking about most of the time. :)

Well if you run the gfs this morning from 210hrs right out to the end you will see spring arrive in full glory for the south of the UK at least, the North gets in on the action towards the end.

Yes it's one model & one run, but it could be a trend.

In the ensembles it's something of an outlier but it's by no means on its own.. a continuation in that sense from last night. 

2nd edit: haha look at the emcf too spring 😋 Though the 850's are still a little chilly on that run, but factoring in slack winds and some sunshine it will feel pleasant by day none the less.