Hopefully some explosive and tasty afternoon convection there Phil, especially towards central and eastern areas. Hail, thunder, sleet and high ground snow are all in the mix by the looks of things. 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A trough of Low pressure is moving SE across Northern and Western areas decelerating with time to lie across Northern and Western parts of England and Wales tomorrow before moving back North as a milder Southerly flow develops across England and Wales.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will rise over the coming days first in the South and later parts of the North too starting the period at around 4000ft and rising towards 6000ft in the South by Monday taking the freezing level above any summits in England and Wales and possible in Scotland too for a time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is moving SE across the North Atlantic and returns in a weakened SW moving flow across the UK in the coming days setting up Low pressure near the South of the UK for a time. Thereafter the theme is for the flow to maintain a desire to stay moving SE over the UK and later still well to the South of the UK in a dishevelled form.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows winds backing South, SE and then East over England and Wales over the coming days drawing warmer air North and taking the trough affecting the North and West away to the Northwest. Then from midweek following a brief drier interlude Low pressure from the NW sets up near the UK and for the last week unsettled best describes conditions with rain and showers in temperatures near average but maybe a bit below or above dependent on the final resting place of the Low pressure and the Cyclonic wind source affecting the UK.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows a very similar story as the Operational with changeable conditions with showers or outbreaks of rain at times for all areas and after a warmer interlude in the coming days temperatures look likely to become depressed again at times through the remainder of the run, all due to Low pressure moving down from the North later next week and setting up shop in the vicinity of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA Once again the GFS Clusters at the 14 day time point suggest Low pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with a bias between members for it's position to be over or to the South of Southern Britain although there is also a sizeable group who put the centre more towards the NW suggesting somewhat better conditions in the SE. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows slack Low pressure moving NE across the UK early next week with plenty of showers for all. This then opens the door to the NW for cooler and unsettled conditions to spread down across all areas with further rain at times and winds from a cooler source.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts mirror the raw data charts pretty well this morning following the course of Low pressure becoming complex over the coming days and drifting NE early next week displacing the milder period with something rather cooler from the NW later next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM is also showing a similar scenario with conditions turning colder from the NW as we move through next week and ending the period with Low pressure near the UK with plenty of April showers and longer spells of rain for all in colder sourced air from the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM is a little different in as much as while the milder and showery period does give way to more unsettled weather from the NW on this run winds are much more Westerly sourced later in the run with Low pressure much further North and while rain at times is likely for all it will feel OK in any sunshine and much of the worst of the rain could focus more towards the North and West rather than elsewhere with time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM sides with the remainder of the pack outside of NAVGEM and brings weather down from the NW and then North later in the run displacing the warmth of this weekend and bringing changeable and sometimes wet and cool conditions later next week and probably beyond as the run ends with complex Low pressure near or over the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure anchored over Ireland indicative of unsettled weather very likely for all in 10 days time with rain and showers for all in cyclonic winds and temperatures near average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.0 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts and GFS at 85.8 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.2 pts to 59.6 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.3 pts to 40.3 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  April is often a month when we can see huge swings in the weather from day to day as the natural warming of the atmosphere competes with the decaying coldness of Northern latitudes. This often results in big showers and vast temperature differences not only day to day but between night and day too. All of the above is going to be on offer over the coming few weeks if today's ouputs is to be believed and with quite good cross model support I think the output has a good handle on the overall patterning. So we're in a warmer phasing at the moment as winds switch Southerly for several days drawing up warmth from Spain. However, with Low pressure in close proximity with time we have to cater for some of those big April showers and outbreaks of rain. Then as the Low switches to be NE of the UK the door opens next week for colder NW winds to take over with further rain or showers but a return of things feeling rather chilly at times. If anything a lot of output strengthens this Northern sourced air even more through the second week and with Low pressure never looking likely to be far from the UK we will be looking at lots of showers and spells of rain and perhaps still cold enough for snow on the hills of the North. All this is very typical of April so one shouldn't be too surprised to see synoptics that we are. In my experience Northern blocking in Spring often brings the threat of cold and snow we don't often see in the Winter months but as the Southern latitude warmth becomes stronger we often find that the Low pressure near the UK is pulled more towards the NW with time and allows something of the continental warmth to filter into the South and East at times and I feel there are hints of that shown in some of the longer term charts this morning. All this of course in fantasy land at the moment. I won't be around for any update tomorrow but should be back on Sunday with a more in depth look at the models for the coming two weeks.

Next Update Sunday April 3rd 2016 from 09:00

Boo!

Anyway, general agreement on a cold and unsettled spell as next week progresses into the weekend. Plenty of potential for rain and showers.

Beyond that a slow recovery but too far out to be sure of.

A few of the GEFS0z runs show incredible early season heat pushing into northern France by mid month.  

Personally I was rather struck by the insane Northern blocking GFS churned out:-

Although it takes a while for any cold air to filter in - if only it was..... 

A bit uninspiring though generally imo - typical enough early April fare - the odd warmer day, the odd colder day and plenty of average stuff with some rain around.

If we do do get the level of Northern blocking shown I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with some warm air to the South (as Brian mentions) clashing with colder air coming down from the North. Would possibly be some big showers/rain totals if that happened.

17th April shows an amazing warm/hot day.

It's looking as though we will pull in a warm continental flow tomorrow. With a small sea track temps will get remarkably pleasant in central and eastern Britain.

Yes Steve, it could be a stonking day and could  turn out to be the Warmest locally for some time.

Warm enough today to ride in summer gear - looking even more pleasant for tomorrows ride

Both GFS and ECM want to build a large Greenland HP, with the latter being a very west based pattern than actually might not be too bad for the far South East (it's usually warmish) but would tend to be rubbish for a fair part of the country.

That said the GFS ens don't show a prolonged bout of unusually cold air, just cool to average 'meh' with rain around.

As you'd expect given the pattern it's a cooler picture for the North:-

Not much on the Snow Row front there but loads for Inverness - would be interested to know if the Inverness one is accurate or tends to exaggerate the risk

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016040306/gfs-0-144.png?6

Potentially very wet

If it was Winter, we would be tearing our hair out again as the trough doesn't want to move so we would not have got the cold air anyway

thats grim beast, no wonder this thread is struggling.

Arpege seems to have been closer with its temperature forecasts today than GFS and the Met Office. It probably did a better job with cloud cover. Something worth remembering and keeping an eye on this summer. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_192_mslp500.png?cb=410

Is it often on the 500 that Greenland gets totally swallowed by the 552 line this early in the year?

It is more of a sign of northern blocking than anything else and can happen at any time in theory. If it occurs in midwinter it can be interesting or be associated with interesting conditions!.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630205.gif 

Indeed Phil. Very good growing weather. Northern blocking appears king in the output this morning. Under such a set up at this time of year there are increasingly good opportunities for warmer weather from southerly flows to be ushered northwards towards the UK at times.

After last nights summer style plumey thunderstorm I'm now looking south for my weather fix in the next few weeks.  

Good consistency in the GFS 850 temperature traces out to 9 days.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=145

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A shallow Low pressure area will drift North and NE across the UK today with light cyclonic winds settling Westerly as a ridge of High pressure crosses from the West through the day tomorrow. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK will remain between 5000ft and 7000ft over the next few days under shallow Low pressure dirfting North over the UK. By or on Wednesday the level will rise higher still across the SW for a time before falling to nearer 4000ft behind an Eastward moving cold front by Thursday with snow returning in showers to mountains above 3000ft.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain or showers at times but some drier spells too. Probably staying cool.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is shown to maintain a trough structure across the UK throughout this week, steepening by next weekend as Low pressure sets up shop towards the SW of the UK. Then through the second week any changes in this Jet flow trough across the UK is slow with only a shift towards the very end of the run when confidence is weak of a more SW to NE flow setting up across the UK with Low pressure then to the NW of Britain.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure in control of the UK weather for much of the next few weeks as Low pressure remains and strengthens by next weekend setting in position close to SW England and spilling rain or showers across Southern areas at least with the best of the weather in the North. Then towards the end of the period there is a signal for milder SW winds and less in the way of rain and showers for the South and East developing with continuing changeable conditions across the North and West as pressure is shown to build to the SE.

GFS CONTROL RUN The GFS Control Run shows unsettled conditions across the UK too for the next couple of weeks with an even slower drift towards an improvement later in the period than the operational shows. Low pressure remains close to the UK throughout dragging a lot of cool and showery air across the UK with just a slow build of pressure from the West late next week leading to maybe less showers but in cool air some frost risk at night.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  Once again the GFS Clusters at the 14 day time point suggest Low pressure likely to be in control of the UK weather with just a 20% cluster indicating any relied fine and more settled conditions under High pressure close to the West with some night frosts likely should this cool High form. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows Low pressure well in control of conditions across the UK over the next 6 days. A few brief ridges namely tomorrow and on Friday will bring a couple of drier days between areas of rain and showers in temperatures rather depressed given the time of year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show complex troughing associated with Low pressure near to the UK for much of this week as various Low pressure areas move NE to start the week and SE across the North and East of the UK late in the week maintaining the risk of showers or longer outbreaks of rain through the week at the same time as becoming rather colder.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM is also showing a cool and largely unsettled 10 days or so to come as all eyes look to the Northwest and later North for cool Low pressure to move down across or close to the UK is maintained with rain and showers in temperatures near average at best and below at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a lot of breezy and cool weather to come this week as Low pressure remains dominant for all. The passage of the early Low pressure will be NE but once to the East the door is opened to the NW for further cool Low pressure to move down across or near to the West of the UK with cyclonic and cool winds with rain and showers for all heavy at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM is no exception to the rest of the output with the theme of Low pressure in control over the UK throughout the next 10 days. It won't be raining all the time though and some dry interludes under weak ridges this week are shown but with Low pressure eventually settling to the SW of the UK bands of rain and showers will be pushed North or NW across the UK at times with the air none to warm at times especially over the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 240hr mean Chart from last night still shows Low pressure anchored near Ireland indicative of unsettled weather very likely for all in 10 days time with rain and showers for all in cyclonic winds and temperatures near average at best.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A changeable and Low pressure driven period of weather for all is maintained from the models again this morning.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.4 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to UKMO at 89.2 pts and GFS at 86.3 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 65.9 pts to 60.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.4 pts to 41.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Well I thought a few days off from me might be long enough for the models to have perked up and showed something more Springlike to come as we move through April but it looks as though my hopes have gone unheeded as it looks from this morning's output that the weather remains unsettled and often rather cool from most if not all output over the next few weeks. Putting the meat on the bones sees the current shallow Low pressure feeding NE up across the UK serves only to open the door to the Atlantic and the NW later this week for further troughs and Low pressure to bring further outbreaks of rain and heavy showers plus an unwelcome cold wind soon after midweek. Thereon Low pressure seems to get stuck down near the SW of the UK with days and days of troughs spilling north across the UK with further rain and showers at times for all, heaviest in the South. There are a few glimmers of hope with the GFS Operational Run at the end of the period suggesting High pressure building to the SE and settling winds to a milder SW'ly with the South and east becoming largely dry but this is about as good as it gets this morning and that is a good 1-2 days away. So this weekends brief warmth in the SE looks a brief blip in an otherwise cool and unsettled outlook. Frosts will be possible at times if skies clear, at least in the North and while some drier and brighter spells in strong April sunshine might offset the unsettled pattern at times the overall synoptic look of the charts this morning can only lead to a feeling of disappointment if it's a sustained fine, warm and settled spell that your seeking.

Next Update Tuesday April 5th 2016 from 09:00

My eyes are instinctively drawn to Europe for next week, as the cold air spilling into the mid-Atlantic encourages trough development west of the continent which in turn allows the development of some quite impressive warmth for mid-April.

ECM's 00z looks particularly interesting in this regard. The GFS 00z is less enthusiastic but the preceding 18z was remarkable in that by the end of the run it had developed a plume of hot air across N. Africa and fringing into the Med. that would be capable of sending temperatures up to around 30*C quite widely across NW Europe if it moved north during the following week. It was a pretty warm run for the UK as well in terms of day and night temps combined, but often unsettled.

Indeed for us it is the potential rainfall amounts that are of concern, as that early build of summer-like warmth to the S/SE clashes with cold air being drawn south with unusual persistence from the Arctic. We might see a good deal of convective setups as and when warm air is overrun by cold air - such as happened along a fairly narrow line for easternmost England yesterday evening... that being just a weak, glancing destabilising plume event.

The blocking pattern may also serve to hammer the Arctic sea ice from an already record-low position, which may have ramifications for the summer and autumn seasons. In the broad sense I expect reduced mobility to the weather - but the N. Atlantic 'Cold Pool' continues in earnest and that has a contrary effect, as we found out all to well last summer. It may also have ties with the development of mid-Atlantic trough + Euro High combinations, hence European heat waves from mid-spring through to late Sep/early Oct.

Interesting times ahead, I feel.