Sorry late again but hopefully getting back on track now. Here is the April thread. Will be start to see some genuine Spring warmth this month?
Please place your CET predictions in this thread. Deadline for entries is 23:59 on Saturday evening (2nd April). No penalties again this month for posting an entry after the 31st because the thread is late opening up.
April historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 8.1C
1981-2010: 8.5C
1996-2015: 9.0C
You will note that in the last 20 years April has been much warmer than the 1971-2000 mean with a mean of 9.0C. The April CET has exceeded 10C four times in the past 9 years including twice above 11C to set new records. We did have a couple of cold April's in 2012 and 2013 with just 7.2C and 7.5C respectively.
Here is a chart of the April CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment
GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
A very warm first week after the 1st before returning towards average
ECM
https://meteoijsselmuiden.nl/knmipluim
Some potentially warm days to come but still coolish nights at times potentially in week 2.
Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/0/A3_plots-temp-AMJ_v1.pdf
Contingency planners forecast suggests April temperatures are more likely to be close to average than above or below.
Pattern matching (JFF)
Since 1950 most March's with a CET less than 6C have generally been followed by a cool or average April. This has happened 18 times. A cool March followed by a warm April has occurred only 5 times. In 4 of these 5 years the whole period from January to March was cool.
The only year in recent times where January and February were relatively warm, March was cool and April was warm was in 1995. Interestingly the back end of 1994 was also very warm indeed including the record November CET. So 1995 is definitely the best match to 2016. The April 1995 CET was 9.1C which is well above the 1971-2000 mean but only 0.1C above the 1996-2015 mean.
Here is a first look at the April CET
A cold first day then turning very mild for a few days before temperatures potentially drop back below average again. So looking like a bit of a mixed bag at the moment for the first half of the month.
Edited by moderator
Wednesday, March 30, 2016 8:15:47 PM
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Reason: Not specified