Only if it warped back a year and plasma merged with Dec 15.

But- interesting point taken.

Met office Hadley   not venturing far with 8.2 for 3 days out of the last 6.....

Met Office Hadley      8.2c.        Anomaly    0.4c.  Provisional to  25th.

Metcheck                 7.68c.       Anomaly   -0.34c.

Netweather              8.4c.         Anomaly    0.31c.

Peasedown St John   9.0c.         Anomaly    -1.6c.

I just did a bit of number crunching with the Daily CET series (starts in 1772). Only twice before has January given the warmest day of the first four months of the year; 1782, and 1986. So this will be the third time in nearly 250 years.

Whoops!

Interesting stats Darren. I always enjoy finding out about the outliers.

Met Office Hadley          8.1c      Anomaly       0.3c    Provisional  to 26th

Metcheck                      7.55c.    Anomaly       -0.47c.

Netweather                    8.26c.     Anomaly      0.17c.

Peasedown  St  John         8.9c.       Anomaly     -1.7c.  

Here comes the dreaded fall in CET and my fall down the table with match it this month.  I'm racing towards the bottom! 

You're not the only one Caz; I'm so far out I'm embarrassed.

Currently I am expecting the April CET to finish at 7.54C. The provisional Hadley numbers look quite a bit too high at the moment based on my calculations.

A 7.5C finish would be similar to the April CET in 2013 but not as cold as 2012.

It looks like the April CET will finish 2.2C colder than the December CET last year. Since the CET series began in 1659 there have only been 7 years when the April CET was colder than the CET for the previous December. Two of those occurred relatively recently in 1986 and 1989.

The highest difference was in 1922 when the April CET was 5.5C which followed the previous December with a figure of 6.5C (a 1.0C difference). So we will easily beat that figure this year.

The March CET was 4.0C colder than the December CET. Only once in the CET series has March been more than 4C colder than the previous December and that was in 1853 when the March CET was 3.4C and the previous December was 7.7C so a difference of 4.3C.

The CET mean for the last 8 days of April is expected to be 5.74C. If this does broadly verify it could be the 3rd coldest last 8 days of April since 1900 and potentially the coldest since 1908 (i.e. 106 years ago).

Coldest last 8 days of April since 1900

1906 5.03C
1908 5.39C
1941 5.73C
2016 5.74C EST
1981 5.76C

Here are the latest charts and figures for April. After a relatively warm start we are going to end up below average after a very cold final week of the month.

This month really is messing with the competition; anyone predicting a CET in the 8's did a good job as far as the first three weeks or so of the month are concerned - it takes something extraordinary to send the CET down instead of up during the final week.

I'll be honest and admit that I expected a bit more of a warm-up prior to a colder finish (the 'cold return' potential being well indicated by long range models and past climatology, but with a rather mixed overall signal as of late March) - but even with that in mind, the magnitude of the cold has surprised me. 4 to almost 6*C below the LTA on 7 of the 8 last days of the month... a one in 50 chance perhaps?

Trying to predict a whole month in advance does appear to be an impossible task using freely available tools alone. It will be interesting to see if any improvements can be made using more advanced methods some day in the future - I am keen to see if science can one day triumph over 'gut instinct' and the like.

Until then, I recommend enjoying good fortune as and when it comes 

The CET should stay around this figure now maybe down to 7.7 as a final. But as GW pointed out the provisionals do look a little high. This week has made me spare a thought for the people of 1740 who had these well below average temps most of the year!

My own backyard weather station has my CET 8.8c.  Anomaly  - 0.8c.

Getting a bit late for the May thread... 

Not that it's going to be clear which way to go with the CET; the GFS 12z produces an estimate of 9.3*C (-1.2*C) for the CET mean and anomaly out to 9th, while the ECM 12z for the same period outputs around 11.9*C (+1.4*C).

Yes you read that right - a 2.6C difference! The low GFS value is due to it producing a drift of cold air from the north that clashes with the warm air to the south and results in a weekend with exceptionally low maximums for much of England; widely in the range of 6-8*C under persistent heavy rain. ECM has no such northerly resistance, with warm southerlies advancing north more or less unopposed. There's some instability due to LP being close to the W/SW, but the temperatures get into the 20's widely by day, which I'm sure many on here would greatly appreciate!

So here's to the ECM 12z. The GFS 12z can go kick the bucket!

Shall be going for 11.5c. for the next month.... Soon...

Met Office Hadley        7.8c.         Anomaly              -0.2c.    Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                    7.30c.        Anomaly             -0.72c.  

Netweather                 7.95c.        Anomaly             -0.26c,

Cheadle Hulme Weather      7.8c.        Anomaly        -01.2c.

Clevedon  Weather              9.4c.       Anomaly         -1.5c.

 Mount Sorrel                     7.9c.        Anomaly         -0.2c

Peasedown  St  John           8.7c.        Anomaly         -1.9c.

My latest calculations are indicating the final April CET will be 7.48C. So something around 7.5C looks very likely now.

wow I'm a whole 1.2c too warm for this month!!!!!!!! oh well