As the first new model thread since 29th February opens, the question on many people's minds right now is how long the warm or very warm spell will last.

As always, find out here!

Nothing too troubling for the foreseeable down in the south with a signal for rising pressure in the mid to longer term. 

What a curious time it is in the world of Atlantic-Europe weather patterns. It appears from the latest model guidance that the main thrust of the jet stream will continue to be well south of the UK for at least another 10 days, and perhaps more than two weeks going by the past couple of GFS operational runs.

Some highlights

This is a rather unusual way to reach 25*C for the first time of year, as a warm and quite dry airmass is drawn up from the continent on the NE flank of a low, this low moisture content allowing for abundant sunshine and keeping the showers at bay away from the northwest - but it appears all set to take place on Sunday. 

A shallow secondary low wanders into the far south on Tuesday, bringing a convergence line that organises a sometimes quite persistent band of rain, though it may tend to break up as the day progresses with some warm sunshine coming through. There could be enough moisture on tap to produce a severe weather event. At this stage totals of 20-30 mm are indicated, which is touch and go for severe status depending on how much rain has fallen in some regions. Here it's been dry enough that such amounts would be taken up readily by the gardens.

The main low looks like drifting closer later in the week - though this is not a given. Even if it does occur, it's a well matured feature, with the frontal systems mixed out, so you have sunny spells and scattered showers. I expect a lot of high cloud would be drawn in from the near continent, turning the sunshine hazy - much as is expected to happen tomorrow, in fact. Temperatures look to be in the high teens to low 20's so feeling reasonable when the sun is out, even if there is a bit of a breeze (expect such details to change).

We may see blocking building to the north but the signal is rather tentative from GFS at the moment, as the past two op runs show. Despite this, both runs continue to track the main jet stream south of the UK during the following 6 days.

Now for a dose of ECM

Hot off the press...

Interesting to see ECM making less of Tuesday's secondary low. This could mean a weaker convergence line and perhaps it would stay south of the UK anyway. Under very slack conditions that persist through Wednesday, it would feel very warm when the sun is out, and I wouldn't rule out temperatures continuing to reach for the mid-20's each day.

The low is cleared away to the SE by Friday, and a ridge builds across from the southwest to link with a strong blocking high to the NE. A scenario in which that holds steady is a fine one for much of the UK - but with that low over Europe and all that cold air south of Greenland contrasting with the warm air reaching out to the UK, there's a good chance that a low would develop and slide SE through the UK... or to the southwest, which would be fun.

I hope you've enjoyed reading this post as much as I've enjoyed having the opportunity to produce it 

Humidity rises markedly Sunday night and it may well feel pretty clammy for at least a few days next week. Get ready to throw those duvets aside 

oh good 👍🏼 At this time of year dry warm heat means cool nights still which is no good if your like me with plants to put out 😉

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Pressure is falling across England and Wales as an area of Low pressure near Spain and Portugal becomes more influential over the coming days. The resultant ESE flow will carry an activating warm front NW across the UK tonight introducing air with high humidity values to many parts of the UK over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK range from just above 5000ft over NW Scotland to near 10000ft over SE England. The level then settles to around 8000ft UK wide by and over the weekend.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather warm with thundery showers in the South. Perhaps rather cooler later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for some time before the Low pressure area edges East and opens the door to a finger of the flow to move South over the UK as Low pressure develops East of the UK in a week or so. Then towards the end of the period the flow reverts back South of the UK in association with UK based Low pressure.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure developing over Spain and Portugal where it remains for some time before drifting ENE later next week. For the UK winds will be from the SE before backing more ENE next week with plenty of warm and humid air across the UK with the risk of thundery showers at times across the South inparticular early next week. Then as winds back Northerly late next week it looks like cooler and more showery air will track South across all areas with the showers mostly across the East. Towards the end of the run pressure becomes slack across the UK with still a lot of High pressure northern blocking evident further Low pressure and rain and showers seem probable in temperatures close to normal at the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The New GFS Parallel Run is very supportive of the theme shown in he Operational over Week 1 but makes rather less of the unsettled weather of Week 2 with more in the way of weak but High pressure close to the UK in Week 2 with fewer showers as a result and spells of sunshine in very average May temperatures as a result.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 

GFS CONTROL RUN As above the first week is well agreed upon within the GFS Camp this morning with Week 2 showing the more varied weather options. This Control Run shows that Week 2 has pressure rising from the West with a strong ridge across the UK by the end of the period with fine and largely settled conditions likely for the UK by then.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today continues to be unclear in the latter stages of the forecast period this morning with the majority slightluy in favour of a weak Northerly across the UK in two weeks but with plenty of other options in the mix too.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a warm SE flow across the UK in three days time with the risk of thundery showers in the South. Then as we move through next week it looks like the risk intensifies and spreads North somewhat as the Low pressure to the SW over Spain advances NE through France backing winds off towards the East and later NE with cooler conditions likely to make there way across the UK later next week if the indicated movement process continues as shown.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario revolving around the movement of Low pressure over Spain and it's effects on the UK. Sunday looks the best day of the next 5 as the innitial push of thundery weather moves away to the NW behind a warm front introducing humid SE winds. Then early next week complex troughing looks like becoming straddled close to or over Southern Britain with thundery rain or showers more widespread and the best of the weather in the NW.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows very slow changes over the next 10 days with the same thundery low pressure area over Spain taking a whole week to begin to lose any threat to the South and SE of Britain with an eventual rise of pressure from the Northwest  ensuring settled weather returns by Day 10 with the best conditions throughout looking likely to the NW with even by Day 10 something of a potentially showery NE flow close to the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today follows the theme shown elsewhere of the eventual movement away from the South of the UK of the thundery Low pressure moving NE from Spain next week while filling slowly. The run ends with High pressure in close proximity in very slack winds with benign and pleasant conditions for many areas by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today is more clear cut in it's movement away from the UK of the Low pressure area over Spain, taking it across Europe next week and removing the risk of thundery rain and showers from the South by soon after midweek and lowering temperatures to more average values as winds back towards the North by next weekend. The run ends with High pressure in close proximity to the West and NW of the UK with the best weather there while there remain a cooler NE flow blowing from the North Sea over England and Wales with perhaps an odd afternoon shower over the SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) With so much uncertainty longer term this chart is not as reliable as usual in giving clues as to where we will lie in 10 days time. However, my best guess that there is an even distribution of members showing Low pressure to be both to the East and West of the UK with a slack pressure gradient likely over us with the risk of a few showers but a lot of dry weather too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK before a gradual reduction in both temperatures and showers look likely later though all with low confidence.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.7pts and GFS at 83.0 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.3 pts to 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 45.8 pts to 37.1 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS  Whenever pressure patterns across the UK are the reverse of the normal, i.e. the reverse of Low pressure to the North and High to the South the models always struggle with the longer term projections and the methods that they try to reset the pattern are always difficult to interpret accurately and as a result they throw up a lot of differences between the models. That is what we have currently with Low pressure becoming deep and anchored down near Spain and Portugal sending spores of energy North over France towards the South and West of the UK in the coming 4-5 days with thundery rain in places early and late in this period. In between there will be a lot of warm and humid weather with sunny spells. Then as the Low is forecast to move East or ENE across Europe next week the winds over the UK look like backing NE or North and this will lower temperatures to average with time. What is less certain is how much influence that European Low will maintain influence across the SE portion of the UK by late next week and how much will High pressure build across the UK in it's wake--all questions uneasy to answer within this morning's output. What is more certain is that North sea coasts are going to have a torrid time soon as while many of us enjoy warm temperatures sea haar looks like giving some very cool temperatures for several days on end over the next week in those areas and any removal of the present pattern would be very welcome news for them. However, having said all that there is nothing particularly nasty shown within the output this morning and it maybe that conditions become fairly benign in the second week with no overall pressure area, low or high having overall control of our weather across the UK. So let's sit back and enjoy this early season warmth and coupled with the chance at least of some warm thundery rain in the South the growing season should gather momentum over the next few weeks. No report from me tomorrow as I will be in Salisbury Wiltshire for the day but back on Sunday morning.

Next Update Sunday May 8th 2016 from 09:00

Looks like turning increasingly unsettled/thundery but still warm at least until the end of next week when a marked cool down is shown.

So enjoy the warm spell why you can.

I'm slightly concerned that both the 00z and 06z GFS op runs both had sub -5°C t850hPa air here next weekend. Hopefully the 12z run will not make it three in a row.

Sadly that pesky Northerly is still there on the GFS 12z. Hopefully the ECM will have other ideas.

ECM looks to be pushing high pressure towards us from the Atlantic by day 8 with decent 850s.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html

But by day 10 the Scandi trough causes a unseasonably chilly northerly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

As long as July and August are warm and sunny, I'm not bothered how May and June turn out. I want the warmth for the warmest months, capable of producing the hottest weather. Many places still have their all-time records from August 1990 so it'd be great to see that broken.. if only. 

Not that unusual to see a slack meridional pattern in Spring.

Indeed, current output suggests another coldish spell with a drop of nearly 15'c in 850's by the end of next week under a northerly.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more stark changes this month ahead of the June monsoon. 

Winter is coming? 

Is it that definite yet Doc? Although the GFS and ensembles have shown a nationwide chill-down from Friday quite repeatedly, ECM seems as persistent to delay or divert the cold plunge. BBC (I presume based on MetO) don't seem to bring it right across the UK in that timescale either.

As you say ECM delays the northerly and is still warm by day 6.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

But even the ECM does have a cool northerly for the east at least Thankfully not the silly cold of the GFS . Prob best we can hope for.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.html

This northerly has really gained some ground in the past 36 hours, much to my displeasure.

The GFS 12z brings unseasonably low temps Fri-Sun and remains pretty drab going forward from there, with temps struggling to reach average levels while the jet stream goes completely nuts, LP systems flying about all over the place. Something is seriously messed up with the weather patterns there; May typically sees a westerly regime re-establishing after a mid-spring hiatus, with a north-south divide often observed in the UK.

I have just had a look over at the GEM 12z and I'm just going to come out and say it - it's fudging ridiculous 

We're talking a massive high latitude block to the west and northwest of the UK that dominates proceedings while low pressure runs down from Svalbard and parks right overhead. Outrageously chilly for the time of year - and unfortunately that's what I mean by ridiculous, more than the nature of the broad-scale evolution, which has blighted (too) many a summer's month in the past decade.

Rant over 

Thankfully we have some noteworthy warmth in the south(east) tomorrow to look forward too, and temps should hold up well for much of England until at least Thursday, though it may be a bit on the damp side across the south on Tuesday. Some interesting thunder potential with that, though, which may evolve further on Wednesday.

Call it a beta for the summer, still with a fair few bugs to remove, with the full release scheduled for later this month, following an intermission during which spring is reloaded but with someone having pressed the reset button by accident  

 I guess not as many watch/read Game of Thrones as I thought.

There does, once again on latest output appear o be an unseasonal "blast" (if I can use that term at this stage of the year) of chilly northerly air moving down the country in 6-8 days time. Although the upper air will be cold, notably for the time of year, it shouldn't bring anything wintry to the vast majority, rather coolish days and chilly nights with some convective precipitation. 

The pattern is there on the ECM however the upper air mass is a little less cold.

Hi everyone, I'm back!

JMA looking pretty awesome with a strong northerly. With low 500hpa temperatures thatl set off heavy showers of rain, soft hail and snow in the far north.

Yep, but it does seem to be following the GFS lead on this a little, as the ECM in general has only recently showed this relatively cooler air airflow. Was kinda hoping for another repeat of May 2008 but this looking unlikely for now at least.

Boooo! 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure over Spain and later France will push troughs up across Southern Britain over the coming days in a warm and moist Easterly flow. The North will be largely set fair in the same Easterly flow though here the air will be more stable than in areas further South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK range between 8000-10000ft over the following three or four days and these levels will extend to the far NW too today where values have been rather lower than elsewhere across the UK recently.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather warm with thundery showers in the South. Perhaps rather cooler later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for much of this before a rise in pressure over the Eastern Atlantic pushes a thread of the flow South across the UK in a Northerly flow. Then late in the period a rather complex Jet stream pattern emerges with the main energy still wanting to lie to the South of the UK rather than elsewhere.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South and later to the SE of the UK this week with Easterly winds and showery weather for many Southern areas with rather warm and in places humid conditions prevailing. In the North it will stay largely dry and this will extend to Western areas further South towards next weekend as the Low to the South moves East and winds back to a cooler Northerly though with further heavy showers across Southern and later Eastern areas of the UK. Then through the second week details look elusive but in essence the UK looks to remain close to showery Low pressure with some bright and sunny intervals in between but with temperatures more likely to have returned to normal values by then at the same time as being less humid as winds back more to a Westerly at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN Using the GFS Operational Run above as a template for the coming two weeks the GFS Parallel Run today differs in that higher pressure is shown to extend East into the UK next weekend with a fine and bright spell lasting for several days and perhaps longer across the South before a return to unsettled and possibly windy conditions spreads down across all areas later, this time from the NW with temperatures after a warm start reverting to nearer to average values.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1 

GFS CONTROL RUN This run follows closer to the Operational rather than the Parallel Run through the phase surrounding next weekend and the start of the second week with continues showery conditions in winds from a cooler Northerly source. However, late in the period this run shows warm and sunny conditions developing across England and Wales as the Azores High extends NE into Southern Britain with any wind and rain held across the far NW.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0 

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 remains distinctly useless as a tool into what conditions will be like over the UK in two weeks time with an equal split of both Low and High pressure scenarios on offer meaning everything from potentially dry and sunny weather to cool and showery conditions in a Northerly flow.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the thundery Low pressure area currently over Spain dominant across Southern and later Eastern areas of the UK throughout this coming week as it slowly trundles it's way East to lie over SE Europe by next weekend with contrasting High pressure centred up to the NW of the British Isles by then resulting in a fall off in temperatures under  the Northerly or NE'ly aspect to the flow by then with many North-western areas of the UK having an entirely dry and warm week while the South and East see further heavy showers at times right out to and probably including next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario revolving around the movement of Low pressure over Spain and it's effects on the UK. The basic message is for the NW to see the best conditions with fronts moving into the South at times with some heavy and thundery rain in humid conditions until later in the week when an attack of fronts from the North looks like reducing temperatures to average with the risk of further showers at times in winds becoming more from the North by next weekend lowering the humidity values.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM this morning shows slow but subtle changes in it's patterning over the next week to 10 days as the current warm and humid SE flow backs away towards the NE and later North with the showery conditions across the South and East too later this week breaking down under High pressure inching in from the West by next weekend with fine and less warm conditions for all for several days before High pressure to the WSW sets up a WNW flow across the UK with rather more unsettled conditions affecting the North and NE late in the run with the SW seeing the driest and warmest conditions by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows the slow decline in conditions from the South affecting the UK as winds back more towards the NE and North through the coming week. However, thundery showers will affect many Southern and Eastern areas for a good few days yet and it will feel warm in any sunshine. Then by next weekend a cooler North flow and showers transferring towards the East will spell a slow change to a more Atlantic based west or NW pattern by the start of the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif 

ECM ECM today also shows High pressure inching in from the West next weekend and into the second week but it never quite makes it maintaining something of a Northerly drift down across the UK with perhaps a few showers still in the East and more importantly cleaning up the air into a cooler fresher feel. As we approach the end of the run it shows more instability being injected into the air across the UK with showers returning to all this time from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart has backed a ridge West from earlier versions of this chart which leads me to believe that any advancement of High pressure into the UK from the West from next weekend will be slow, painstaking or at worst non-existent...more runs needed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK before a gradual reduction in both temperatures and showers look likely later though conditions beyond next weekend still come with low confidence.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 86.5pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.2 pts to 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.5 pts to 36.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Although the overall patterning of the weather over the next week looks pretty much set in stone the method and in particular local detail that gets us out of this pattern for the period surrounding next weekend and beyond remains very uncertain. So step by step what we have now is Low pressure down over Spain and Portugal which incidentally is giving some pretty inclement May weather down there and some of this is heading up towards Southern Britain to affect these areas between tomorrow and Wednesday. The warm and humid feed of air surrounding this will affect much of the UK but the North looks like getting away with a largely dry spell over the coming 3-4 days with the highest temperatures to the NW. Then as the week progresses the trend will be for winds to back away from the SE to more of a NEy feed by the end of the working week lowering both temperature and humidity values somewhat while maintaining some showery weather to include eastern areas too by that time. It's from then that the confusion between the models start as colder air will be moving South across Scandinavia and with High pressure to the West and NW of the UK this could be driven our way with the models in total disarray about how much of that cold and showery air will affect conditions over the UK. Some output suggests not much while others maintain a cooler Northerly drift with further showers eventually culminating in further unsettled weather fed down from the NW with rain and showers at times to end the forecast period. However, this is not the only option with other output suggesting High pressure ridging towards the South and setting up more of a NW/SE split at least for a time with the SE half of the UK becoming warm and dry with rain and wind towards the NW. It will be interesting to see how the models handle the changes through the coming week as all options shown look to me totally feasible. However, to end with the more definitive part of the forecast it looks a showery week to come especially across the South and East where they could be heavy and thundery at times. The best weather looks to be towards the NW this week and after a very warm start for some the conditions look set to turn rather cooler by next weekend with temperatures closer to the seasonal average at the same time as feeling less humid.

Next Update Monday May 9th 2016 from 09:00 

Never a good sign 

No, it certainly isn't -my heart sank a little bit.