Joe, has it not always been thus? The weird world of a weather forum, where some very odd people try to score some uniquely odd points? In a way that's what makes it so great. Vive le weather geeks.

Anyway, i suspect we can look forward to a fairly chilly second half of winter.

Thanks John. You are welcome to come and confiscate it but it still won't change the obvious. You are all turning on me yet again just because I don't tow the party line. I wonder sometimes what the point is in here. I have a method. It's experimental and takes me ages collating charts and extrapolating means. I don't constantly blurt out mild bias despite what you all think of me. I also refuse to use the term that Ian always uses because I think that's pure conjecture also. I am no more or less relevant than anyone else. My methodology is totally experimental and just for fun really but I won't discard it after just 15 months of trying it.

 

I don't see why I need to be biased towards cold just because that's what the majority want to hear. I am not emotive and I don't hang off every run and get drawn in by the occasional stellar run.

Tonight's 18z bring case in point. This goes into the mix and the 18z from last Saturday night goes out of the mix. But my methodology predominantly focuses on the 12zs which I believe to me the most reliable runs of the day.

Now if this is a trend that develops my mean then my views will change accordingly but it will take a few days of consistency for that to be the case - something we are simply not getting.

The only consistent trend at the moment based on the mean of the last seven days of 12z's is one of a UK high/MLB with a slow change to something more zonal at the 10-day range.

I will keep this research going. Like all experiments I need to persevere with this methodology for a while to see if there is any credibility or not.

I accept however some criticism too. I accept some of my sweeping statements sound too much like "matter of fact" and so you all have my word I will rein that in and apply caveats in future analysis.

I hope that clears things up and people can at least respect my views and my 11 years of model watching at this wonderful forum.

😀😁😀

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html 
Capturing the 18z the omega type draws in continental sub air to the south then a real brrrr to add from northerly quarters. Could be cherry on the cake of a real cold picture.

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Enough in the ensembles again this morning to keep the cold fraternity interested. GFS doesn't produce quite the same amount of cold coming down from the north but with the mean 850hPA staying a couple of degrees below zero and an easterly based feed it is going to be far from warm.
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=221&ext=1&y=250&run=0&runpara=0 

ECM and GEM sadly are not quite so optimistic favouring a milder outcome at 240
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011500/ECM1-216.GIF?15-12 
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2017011500/gem-0-240.png?00 

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Dry, settled and increasingly cold from the south east seems to be the theme this morning for the week ahead. Infact, the continental flow on the GFS brings daytime maxima of 0c for many on Friday.

 

All ushered in on a cold front from the south at 120 hours (you don't see these very often).

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

 

Next weekend there is an opportunity for the jet to undercut. Confidence in any aspect is low.

Whatever happens the atlantic is very quiet even at 168 hours with pressure high over Greenland and low over Italy. 

Any zonality is generally pegged back to 240 hours. 

 

 

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My reading of the ensembles would be that there's little change, they continue to show a marked swing back to milder conditions by the 24th. The ECM op is showing the same as well.

The good news for coldies is that it's still a fair way out, plenty of time for the outlook to change!

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Indeed.

The signals show up well for a potential return to zonality. One to watch but a long way off. These cold blocks can take some shifting once established though. 

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ECM again attempts the link to Greenland at 192 but again fails.
Recurring theme I'm afraid.

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Yes it's still a very mixed picture this morning with the ECM and GFS showing rather different outcomes. More runs needed...

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P9: 14C uppers over the Midlands!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/9_318_850tmp.png?cb=496

Fortunately it's nearly two weeks away.

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With the HP forming further west closer to the UK and the orientaiton of the HP with slack flow over UK means that the easterly look unlikely to get much of look in. The only hope is that one of the colder ENS from GEFS  0hcomes off next weekend(jam tomorrow again)

Subtle differences in positioning of our HP by GFS and ECM this morning, with the former managing to bring in some chilly/cold air aloft as well as at the surface whereas the latter doesn't. The ECM run says stagnant, foggy and probably dank to me but I guess we might get lucky and it'll be clearer Unlikely to be remotely warm but if it is cloudy night time temps help to keep the CET reasonable even if daytime temps are suppressed.

Heading in to FI and ECM has the HP core just South of us, keeping southern England largely dry but probably rather dreary and allowing milder air and weather systems to roll over the top for the rest of the UK. 

GFS keeps the HP to our East/South East and declines it off that way. This leaves us with a legacy of chilly air with the jet well to our south helping keep us cool. It's the kind of setup the Scottish ski industry would welcome I suspect!

Further out and the unsettled zonal theme is still present on the GFS although somewhat toned down from last nights 12z. If I was a betting man I'd go with a few days of wet and unsettled weather before HP builds in.

Probability wise I'd swap this around from where I was a few days ago and say after our HP declines (assuming it does!) 15% chance of cold re-establishing and 35-40% chance of a milder zonal interlude, although I don't think that'll last too long.

 

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My first post of the winter! The reason for this momentous event on TWO is that a winter easterly across western Europe is just beginning, albeit a tad too far south to affect most of the UK except the far south. Nevertheless it is an easterly and it shows that the atmospheric ingredients for retrogressive patterns in winter across Europe are present, for the first time since late winter/early spring 2013. As these ingredients are in place in mid-January 2017, there is certainly a significant chance that late January, February or March 2017 may deliver an easterly blast further NW aimed at the UK: these retrogressive patterns do tend repeat!

The second point I would like to make is "Why?" Why do we have an winter easterly across western Europe now for the first time since 2013?

One major factor is certainly neutral ENSO which supports weaker and more meandering jetsreams across the northern hemisphere. I did an analysis a number of years ago and most winter easterlies occur in ENSO neutral years.

Second major factor is probably weaker solar activity as we approach the solar minimum of solar cycle 24. I was gobsmacked as were most of us I think by the cluster of very cold winter months in the UK for a few winters around 2009. I was and remain convinced that weak solar activity results in weaker and more meandering jetsreams across the northern hemisphere which allows retrogressive patterns across Europe. The last three zonal winters during the solar peak corroborates this argument although last winters extreme zonality was certainly down to the strong El Nino.

I reckon the negative QBO as a factor in cold winters needs to be retired. It is not a major factor. And you have many years when you cannot allocate the winter to either positive or negative because the switch occurs in autumn/winter.

While I agree the NWP this morning is discouraging for coldies, I see the above reasons for optimism and excitement.

PS. I have just enjoyed a fhree days with snow on the ground (2.5 inches fell on Thursday) but it all melted last night.

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Interesting little chart

Some energy splitting off South/South East with cold air in situ - snow for some if it verified.

Don't suppose it will verify but it does show there's still some opportunities around in the semi reliable

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The return to zonal?

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Pretty big differences between GFS and ECM at t144

GFS 06z                                                        ECM 00z

Who's your money on...

'Shropshire' may well be right. But the models are quite split. GFS 0z (op and control) prolong the continental influence until well into next week(week beginning 23rd!). NAVGEM keeps the same them going up to +180( the end of its run). But ECM and more notably GEM blow it all away, GEM as early as Friday.

I notice the 06z is trying to bring in the Atlantic by the end of next weekend, but in what could be quite a wintry breakdown, and UKMO sits in the middle with a resident UK high that hints at melting away to the SE.

We have witnessed how much things can change this week, and undoubtedly the emphasis in the models will shift again, for better or worse.

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Poor NWP in general from a cold perspective this morning but some charts hanging around in FI that remain of interest. Height rises to the south remain a problem, such a shame given the lack of Atlantic dominance

Do people add poor to every post just to get a reaction?

How chart's like these in the mid term can be described as poor for cold is beyond me 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017011500/ECH1-120.GIF?15-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011506/gfsnh-0-120.png?6 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2017011500/UN120-21.GIF?15-05 

 

you say poor for coldies, I simply post these charts:-

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1624.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16210.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn16217.gif

Lots of potential for something wintry in the semi-reliable timeframe. 

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Quick summary of next nine days suggested max temps here from the GFS 6z.
4c, 2c, 3c, 4c, 2c, 1c, 4c, 3c, 2c.
Certainly seasonal winter temps forecasted that was generally picked up by ECM in recent days.

While ECM was leading the way recently, different models are picking up opposing signals and outcomes with some regularity now.

Usually the case anyway but particularly at this time to say anything "will" happen in future is frankly misleading analysis unless accompanied by caveats and wording to say this is suggested or forecasted. There is no will about it.

SSW or not? warming occurs from eastern Alaska and Siberia and penetrates into the Arctic in FI.

 

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No northerly on the 06z run for end of next weekend!?

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Good to see Iceman back. I agree with a lot of what he said though I'm not convinced we will see a return of our Scandi high later this season. It looks like we are heading for a standard  west based -NAO pattern, with atlantic lows to our west and mild SWesterlies

Our best hope in such situations in high pressure to stall the fronts further away as shown by GFS op and control this morning. Still cold in the east for another week before the breakdown

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011506/gensnh-0-1-168.png

 

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http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011506/gensnh-2-1-180.png

Pert 2 is the sort of thing we must pray for. An undercut to sustain the block for a bit longer

 

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