Subtle differences and markedly different conditions can be garnered from looking at the 72-96-120 hour and to 144hrs.
UKMO is less chilly with 1035 to 1030 mbs Europe UK West Central to NW and Mid N Europe High.
Chilly or cold GFS 12z which has Europe seeing coldish days and frosty nights, with chance of very dry weather very high indeed and chilly cloudy days for the UK.
At 120-144 and greater divergence between the two, and it looks like NAVGEM is in between them both on it's 00z run.
The ECMWF 00z run looks similar to the UKMO with Stubborn hard to Mid Latitude High in W and Central to N Europe.
All three show North and NE Norwegian Sea and NW N Russia far NE Europe on the colder side, and next 3 days GFS keeps the East and SE Central Europe keep the cold Continental Polar Arctic Air getting some modification over West and NW UK as Low Pressure in Mid N Atlantic pushes to Southeast off Greenland and by Friday to Sunday in part tracks NE to SW Norwegian Sea from South and SE Iceland after passing off S and SE Greenland on the ECMWF NAVGEM and UKMO, the GFS splits it and shows the same pattern but keeps the cut off Low and push that across us from Mid SE of N Atlantic that would be bring rain by late Sunday into Monday as the air is not cold enough for snow unless cold air under the West NW Europe High together with Cold SE winds embeds cold air ahead of it on approach😁. Smile.
Will the cold airmass over Mediterranean stay away from NW EUROPE - the GFS brings the cold dry frosty nights and cold days back in by Midweek and have Cut off Low aim to affect UK by next weekend or the Monday to Tuesday following it...
Chance of freezing fog also quite a possibility ahem😀.
It could get colder from Friday to Sunday, with a return midweek in third week of this month of mild SW flow and Mid N Atlantic to UK spells of wet and breezy SW and West flows.
🌧🌤☁️🌫🌞🙂.
Edited by user
15 January 2017 17:49:35
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Reason: Not Specified
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.