It has been updated Joe and although not quite as “northerly” as yesterday’s it is still generally northerly which is an unusual signal as a blend of all options at day 10. The vast majority of the time at that range the picture I sent a default average non-descript westerly.

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I calculate the thicknesses across all of eastern England and eastern France to be approx. 524 dam or less on the ECM 240 hr chart:

The blue 536 line minus 0.4(1015-1000) = 524 dam.

Unless I've got the formula wrong.

Edit: Complete bollox. Please ignore.

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it is not so good M I dont like to say it, we all know about means it has been of discussion here for a number of years Martin used to love them im not so keen but many look at them to see a trend.

last nights mean run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=1&mois=11&heure=12&jour=26&annee=2017

tonights run

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

Bottom line is ecm mean not so good compared to last night But as Joe has said maybe just a wobble it can soon flip back.

 

I, however, have seen better. 

Just what does a girl have to do the get some real weather around here, huh? 

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Yes, it is not as good but it is still good if we are looking at a “non-zonal” outlook. Yesterday’s ECM mean charts we’re pretty remarkable.

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Some strange output tonight for sure. I've noticed this more than once when a cool or cold pattern takes hold- inevitable wobbles lead to some odd looking charts. Could be a very interesting period of model watching over the next few days.

ECM 240 thickness plot

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/240_thickuk_only.png 

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Thanks. I can see where I was wrong now! I'd noticed it was 524 dam IMBY in the West Country, which is, of course, all that matters, and didn't look more closely.

I hadn't realized you had charts with the thicknesses already calculated.

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You're looking at T+72 but I was referring to T+240...!

I make the T+72 500-1,000 hPa thickness more or less the same as you, 525dam.    The formula is the 500 hPa value, in this case 532, less 7/8ths of the SLP difference from 1,000mb, in this case 1,011-1,000=11 x 7/8 = 7, so 525.

(if SLP is sub-1,000 you have to deduct not add)

Edit: I see that Brian has provided the link to his thickness chart - I keep forgetting that I should available and always do the calculation from the SLP/500hPa charts.  I'm not sure why the formula gives a slightly different answer; I guess it may have something to do with specific air mass characteristics because the calculation for 850hPa values from the 500hPa ones also gives slightly different results at times.

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Important to note that those ENS spreads that I posted earlier (and you've helpfully done again) do not give any indication of weighting on the spread.

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The trend post day 10 on the EC mean charts over the last few days seem to be making their way into the pre 10 day at the moment, and that is, the general weakening of the northerly feed (not that it was very strong in the first place) with a ridge, albeit not an overly warm one, moving in from the west. Will be interesting to see how this pans out in the actual. 

As much as 'zonality' is disliked on this thread, I honestly hope the Atlantic kicks in soon. Was all last winter waiting for something with a bit of bite lto happen but nowt. All I hope for is that we don't end up with anything like what we had throughout the entirety of last winter, but from the point view of this early stage as least, there seems to be little hope in the offing. 

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Sorry. The curse of Meteociel charts shifting when you accidentally run the cursor over them.

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Not as bad as the iPad autocorrect curse, trust me....

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No way to spin it. ECM suite is a downgrade. It could upgrade tomorrow or it could go full pete tong and Katie price!

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18z GFS at t+144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_144_1.png 

Looks a bit iffy! 😀

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Don’t start 

It is similar to the 12z op run at the same point. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_150_1.png 

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Looks as though it is going down a similar road to ECM. Now out to t+162.

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dont think we will have a clue about next week until the end of this working week

Beeb still seem confident about Northerlies after the weekend 

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We’re getting there towards FI but those heights over Europe are a big problem! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_195_1.png

A variation of a similar theme however - that block to our NW is very much still forecast. 

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The Northerly plunge is still there Joe, not too concerned yet

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The low pressure to the west is being modelled differently on the 18z. The outcome looks similar only sooner, i.e. the northerly gets cut off.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017112718/gfsnh-0-228.png?18

Looks like the block is too far west again resulting in the trough also being too far west (from our perspective). It could all adjust eastwards of course, but let's see,

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The dominant force over the mild conditions in England is forecast to be the super-large Mediterranean  High.  Scotland gains some cold from the Greenland high.  Interesting chart but pure fantasy all round.

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Still no concern the theme is the same 

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Ok, thanks for flagging up. I've removed that.

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Thanks Brian I don’t want any members in trouble if I see it

Cheers Tim