Apparently, the instant the op run is one of the milder solutions, all uncertainty vanishes. Yeah right!

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In fairness Rob I can see why people think that because invariably in this country the milder solutions are normally right.

BUT as I've said a number of times,  we are not in normal territory this year and the huge scatter in the ensembles show the uncertainty nicely.

I would much rather see what we are seeing this year  than what we were seeing this time in 2015 which was unrelenting very mild zonality.

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Totally agree mate , it’s much improved 

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Looks like the main change is Wed and Thur with strong support for a milder outcome. A transient northerly flow of sorts still looks a distinct possibility during the second half of next week. It's a bit like driving down a straight and smooth road only to see pot holes appearing at short range. 

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A good analogy Brian. 

I do now think we are very likely to get some milder weather next week, I don’t think a straightforward transition to a northerly is very likely at all.

That said, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see more changes in the output, and I would neither be surprised to see more cold weather modelled soon after a short mild spell. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

 

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I never bought into the colder solution next week as,the heights over Europe just never looked like playing ball and at best (as I said yesterday) cold snaps as opposed to spells will be the best we can muster going of the current output.

UKMO has moved away from the northerly now

t144

t168

ensemble means from GFS and ECM haven't supported any significant snow making it to the south for a few days now so the downgrades to something less cold are off no surprise to me at all

As others have said, a lot of options still on the table, but be they mild or cold, I just hope something kicks off as we head into December. 

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Climate forum and UIA be the place for you then. 😁

Exactly. Maybe Ian sees its differently, but this chart doesn't really scream mildness to me:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

 

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Not really- the latter stages of the ECM op don't suggest a Euroslug setting up, to me eyes anyway.

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Speaking of Ian Brown

Hmmm, how predictable!

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Fair play to GEM which never signed up to a proper cold spell

Once again we see the jet and shortwaves preventing northern blocking. This is climate change in real time and its keeping our winters mild, probably for many decades to come. 

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I like the fact the charts have had a wobble at this stage than perhaps over the weekend. Plenty of time for the models to switch back to one of a deep cold plunge, than a toppler.

That being said, it does look - for as much as FI deliers some tasty charts - that a pattern is starting to develop of West based Altlantic HP, with LPs pushing down introducing transient Cold plunges (like today, and a week ago) ... with similar Transient milder spells driven by a tame Jet stream.

Its all rather tame at the moment.

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This isnt a million miles from what the GFS has been trying to say these past few days.  at T168, a little bit more of assertiveness from the GH and you have the potential for an epic winter snow storm.  Lots of moisture pumped up hitting Arctic air.

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I think that is a discussion best conducted elsewhere, Beast.

And anyway, we had no problems with shortwaves preventing northern blocking in late 2009 and 2010, did we? That's only 7-8 years ago which nullifies your argument somewhat, IMO.

 

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Gawd, I hope so Dave. The last thing we want is that ugly wart cluttering up the thread. 😂😂😂

I've had my reservations about next week's cold spell but I don't think it's related to the heights over Europe, SC.  I think it's more a case of the strength and track of the burst of energy that has been modelled to push south.  The evolutions that have delivered an Arctic Plunge have all driven the surge south with such momentum that the high pressure has been forced aside.  The next issue is where the displaced high pressure ends up: some models retrogressed it into mid Atlantic and others just show it slipping south.

There was always going to be a milder interlude into early next week. At the moment I'd say that the odds had lengthened a little on a strong renewed burst of cold but that's all.

 

As I type this it's snowing outside.... Let's not forget what we have under our noses, which isn't bad for November.   

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So GFS swings back the other way.
This really is one of those all in moments, and I don't think we will have a resolution until maybe as short as +48

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It's funny how some people never seem to learn. The mantra of cross-model and ensemble support seems to be overlooked. Especially by certain contributors in their rush to predict zonality.

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Just over 50% of MOGREPS have a northerly type next Wednesday at 18z. These range in intensity.

 

My thoughts exactly - it shows that Atlantic low squeezing through the gap and then merging with the Euro trough. The results of which could be a big snowstorm, as shown on the 06Z GFS just rolling out, for instance!

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How's this for an anomaly chart...

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A lot of people on here (and I have been guilty of it too in the past) seem to think that as long as cold charts are shown, it's all still up in the air, but as soon as one or two op runs trend mild, that's it all settled. It's not, of course.

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