Didn't we have to endure this erroneous 'analysis' earlier in the day?

Please post some charts that support your comment because I don't recognise that pattern in the latest output from GFS, UKMO or ECM.

Well, if you're only interested in 'vigorous weather' then I can understand the charts may be a disappointment.

Indeed, as much as I understand how the charts might be quite thrilling at the moment for those like you who openly embrace the mundane, the banal, the mediocre. Different strokes an all a dah.

Oh dear, I see you're back to your customary unpleasantness.  It would help if you could maintain some civility in here, difficult as it may be.

Agreed completely there, Peter.

I'm afraid I don't see where Ian is coming from at all when he calls the ECM dreadful, other than he is quite possibly once again interpreting what the ECM 12z shows in a deliberately misleading manner.

Arctic heights are very pronounced for the next couple of weeks at least...If this spills out to our side of the hemisphere then game on....It seems due to this anomaly the models keep repeating this fact esp GFS...Something out of the normal default is hard to model...Some good signals ..Fingers crossed ...

Members dont fool for it anymore Ian

As Moomin has said on more than one occasion lately, one thing is for sure about the current pattern and that is we are not in anything like the set-up we were in this time two years ago. In late November 2015, we had what seemed to be a semi-permanent HP area over central Europe and a raging & seemingly unstoppable northern arm of the jet throwing one LP after another at us. At this moment, we do not have persistent HP over the continent and heights seemed to be focused just to the west of the UK or in the mid-atlantic.

From what I can see from the models, things looks no less promising for cold than they did in late November last year.

ECM op quite close to the mean in terms of general pattern at 240hrs:

Despite the close proximity of low pressure, frontal/shower activity I think would be quite weak over the NE Atlantic, given the diverging look of the westerly flow. 

Fwiw - a forecast I've seen for next week is this. Colder weather returning - But for how long.

Agree with this. Not much seems to favour sustained Pressure over Greenland. 

Similar to the 18z

Indeed. 18z delivering quite a sustained cold shot with a very blocked Atlantic and what looks like a reload as we end the high res part of the run.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017113018/gfsnh-0-240.png?18

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

ECM at 240h has the prospect of  a second slider LP and a Scandi high building west.

Can’t be ruled out, but a Scandy high set-up looks to be around 10% chance at the moment IMO

ECM 12z ensemble suite for London has reverted to the idea of a dominant cold cluster from day 9-10. The rest is mostly just scatter, aside from a small cluster that signals a possible couple of days of average maxima.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

Agreed. In fact the ridge that appears to nudging in from the east is actually from a HP cell about 2,000 miles to the east.

Good point.

If the second low (T+240) follows the same track down over the UK as the first low (T+216) then it could be game on.

Some impressive members on the GEFS, this is the best 

Morning all. Winter is now statistically upon us.

The latest LR met update seems to support some kind of easterly block as Roger alludes to.