theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
01 December 2017 16:28:39
It could still become that channel low that gave immense snow in the charts earlier this week
doctormog
01 December 2017 16:29:23
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png 

Will the ECM show the same thing later? Yet mor interesting charts and not really deep in FI.

P.S. Apologies to those who mentioned Scandinavia High possibilities previously and I disregarded. It may not come to anything like that but the possibility is definitely more than it had been previously.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
01 December 2017 16:31:19

It could still become that channel low that gave immense snow in the charts earlier this week

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


It could quite easily - a shallower feature and it tracks further South. Other possibilities exist of course as it’s still at 162.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 16:31:30


LOL the low just gets stuck and gradually feeds in more mild air, rain followed by 12 hours or more of blizzards followed by more rainy mix in parts, that would be a ridiculous spell of weather.


 


I know GFS snow depth charts are notoriously rubbish but 



Originally Posted by: Rob K 


A closer view:


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Nordic Snowman
01 December 2017 16:32:24


Some ears in Exeter must be starting to prick up with charts like this flying around.




https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/12_159_mslp500.png?cb=725


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Agreed. Seems to be a growing trend/feature with GFS and as the Doc posted, UKMO at T144 is broadly similar - albeit not as intense and more flabby (in part due to less grid points as Brian earlier pointed out).

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 16:35:26


 


Agreed. Seems to be a growing trend/feature with GFS and as the Doc posted, UKMO at T144 is broadly similar - albeit not as intense and more flabby (in part due to less grid points as Brian earlier pointed out).


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


I've wondered more than once if the UKMO run is based more on the mean of ensembles rather than just one main run, as their charts have often have that 'look' about them. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Maunder Minimum
01 December 2017 16:35:38
Well GFS is providing some genuine eye candy for a week today. Let's hope we see it move towards the reliable without any downgrades.
New world order coming.
Solar Cycles
01 December 2017 16:35:59
Well if the GFS verified we could be looking at a memorable snow event for some with severe gale force winds and drifting heavy snow.......... Now what could possibly go wrong from here on.
Brian Gaze
01 December 2017 16:36:07

I realise that a number of you would like a certain member to have his account deleted. If that's what you want my advise is don't respond to his posts and don't accuse him of trolling. That will only lead to your account being deleted.


Edit: We're one down today and I'll be happy to delete more accounts before close of play.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
01 December 2017 16:36:07


 


A closer view:



Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


 


 


  Scotland would effectively be cut off from England


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Solar Cycles
01 December 2017 16:38:47


It was certainly around that time. So why is this pattern making another appearance when it seemed to have been banished by global warming?


Intriguing. 


Originally Posted by: polarwind 

Lol, steady on PW we try to leave that nasty little troll outside of the MOD thread. 😁

Solar Cycles
01 December 2017 16:41:29


 


 


Granted I've only ever seen snipey comments from people with axes to grind, but I was under the impression her record in terms of forecasting extremes is a little dodgy - or am I being unfairly influenced (I don't read NW)


 


Edit - I know it's been used for a while now, but that nickname 'Jam' is genius


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Tamara doesn’t proclaim to be any expert but simply gives her insight on what she believes may or may not happen going forward, she’s forgotten more about teleconnections than I’ll ever come to understand but your right  her record isn’t any better or worse than others.

Rob K
01 December 2017 16:42:20
It looked as though the GFS run was going to build a Scandi high for a moment but not this time. Still, as long as it is 100% accurate up to T180 I won't mind 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Solar Cycles
01 December 2017 16:43:32


 


 


 


  Scotland would effectively be cut off from England


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

The SNP will be more than happy. 😎

doctormog
01 December 2017 16:44:05


Tamara doesn’t proclaim to be any expert but simply gives her insight on what she believes may or may not happen going forward, she’s forgotten more about teleconnections than I’ll ever come to understand but your right  her record isn’t any better or worse than others.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 



Which just goes to show that the weather will often do what it wants in its own chaotic way no matter how well we think we know the teleconnections. There are so many variables and the models are the best science and indicators we have but, as has become painfully clear over the years, they are not without their shortcomings.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
idj20
01 December 2017 16:47:18

Regarding the 12z GFS run, I think those living on the East Coast should look away to avoid being worried about tidal surges if the the wind and pressure gradient profile around that "cut off" low pressure by this time next week are to go by on, not to mention the slow moving nature of the whole system,

However, that model does like their dartboard lows and thus still subject to change.

Folkestone Harbour. 
Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 16:48:05


It was certainly around that time. So why is this pattern making another appearance when it seemed to have been banished by global warming?


Intriguing. 


Originally Posted by: polarwind 


Mean 850 temps & anomalies for January 1984 as a whole. 



 


Storms and heavy snow was a dominant feature of that month here in IRE, as I believe it was in Scotland/NW England as well. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Rob K
01 December 2017 16:55:15
What a run. It even sets up another round at the end. almost a carbon copy at 348 hrs!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
roger63
01 December 2017 16:57:13
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png 

Will the ECM show the same thing later? Yet mor interesting charts and not really deep in FI.

P.S. Apologies to those who mentioned Scandinavia High possibilities previously and I disregarded. It may not come to anything like that but the possibility is definitely more than it had been previously.


The METO at 144h has LP further east than GFS which may mean a shorter less stormy.Glad to see some snowy forecast charts but far too early to have any belief that they will come to pass .The Meto medium range seems to be ignoring any snowmaggen in favour of wet and windy.

Solar Cycles
01 December 2017 16:57:55

What a run. It even sets up another round at the end. almost a carbon copy at 348 hrs!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Just for once wouldn’t be nice for a GFS snowfest forecasts to be bang on the money. We can but dream I suppose.

Charmhills
01 December 2017 16:57:57


A nice, cold unstable northerly from the Met/o 12z.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Solar Cycles
01 December 2017 17:00:07



A nice, cold unstable northerly from the Met/o 12z.


Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Those heights over Europe could scupper the attack from the North and limit it to Scotland only.

Shropshire
01 December 2017 17:00:43


 


 


Granted I've only ever seen snipey comments from people with axes to grind, but I was under the impression her record in terms of forecasting extremes is a little dodgy - or am I being unfairly influenced (I don't read NW)


 


Edit - I know it's been used for a while now, but that nickname 'Jam' is genius


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


You might not say that when you find out who came up with it 


I still think the most likely option is a more conventional transfer West to East of the LP with a transient Northerly behind, granted stuff like December 90 couldn't ever be picked up by the models 7 days out but it's probably a once in a generation event. People should be realistic and expect rain followed by a cold/dry interlude away from the usual places that see snow showers in brief northerlies.


 


 


 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gooner
01 December 2017 17:00:47

I would do very well if that GFS run verified 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Chunky Pea
01 December 2017 17:08:38


Those heights over Europe could scupper the attack from the North and limit it to Scotland only.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


They also are not very strong, and if anything, the sequence up to that chart shows them gradually eroding as a 'cut off' upper low develops over the Med. 

Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022

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