FWIW these charts look like those in Dec 2009.

WNW’ly winds with 850’s at or around -10C = heavy snow for most of NW England. 

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Any chance of an easterly down the line on this run?

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one of those occasions where it can be very cold in the NE USA and cold here at the same time

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Great run from GFS and getting very close to the reliable  timeframe 

A strong NWly has often pushed snow showers through the Cheshire gap to Oxfordshire 

 

much encouragement 

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From IMBY perspective we need some atlantic moisture to make its way up to make some snow

But agreed the NW should do well

 

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In all honesty I’m not especially interested in the possibility of back edge snow (there’s so much that can go wrong with that).

I’m far more interested in the convective activity once the low pulls into the North Sea. If we can maintain that Greenland ridge for long enough with very cold uppers, then much larger sections of the population could receive some meaningful snowfall. 

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snow pushing up the channel perhaps! Lets enjoy the moment, it could be all change in a few hours!

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If the pieces are broadly in the right places then a static pattern is fine.

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Remember of course that the GFS precipitation patterns are useless - if there was a slack unstable pattern with lots of cold air as shown in this run after the LP moves through then heavy snow could crop up just about anywhere.

Ignoring the details this is another great run. No sign so far of the GFS moving towards a flatter picture.

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the GFS 6z is verging on ridiculous in how cold and snowy it is. Probably nonsense but might as well enjoy the charts. A stunner!

 

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Indeed, plenty of kinks in those isobars so no doubt we’d see showers/longer periods of wintry precipitation once the main action passes through.

A rough guide as to what the latest GFS would bring snow wise later next week. Fairly typical of a NNW'ly I think. 

 

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I see the pattern only changes after the resolution decreases (+240hr)

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It's all about maintaining the heights over Greenland and the 06z does that for as long as you can hope to achieve from this set-up. I'll be wanting to see changes from the ECM later before I can get on board with some of the hyperbole.

 

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I'm quite pleased with the runs this morning.

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Could be cold rain? Or isn't it too far south? and slides into France?

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still holding on. I'd bank this run even though its largely dry for my location. A sustained cold spell rather than a snap

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Fair point.Was expecting to see the LP  in the further north position compared to the 0h, to pull away faster.

I certainly agree we need to have the ECM on board. Everything crossed it ramps up the wintry theme slightly. Even the 00z is OK - and I am encouraged that the MetO supports GFS. 

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On that theme I’m not sure anyone has posted the Met Office model’s 168hr chart https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2017/2017120200/ukm2.2017120900.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png 

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Slack easterly wind for Xmas day - quite different from the mild and wet that has always been on the previous model runs. STILL the Greenland blocking feature hangin on.

 Look forward to Gav's Xmas update.

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain CFS

 

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In fact the MetO T+144 is a stunning chart. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

 

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A real pity they don't make 850 temp charts available, but that looks pretty scaldy for some. 

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We don't "need" to have any model on board. Even if none of the models existed, the weather would do what it's going to do anyway (barring the butterfly effect from the rising air caused by the heat of the ECMWF servers in Reading!)

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But they do...

Arctic air (not from Canada.... ) driving south.

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