Some good looking charts this morning, but I'm wary of any hope of lowland snow south of the Thames. 

So Im in "Scrooge mode" for the time being.

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Well the 06z GFS ensembles still looking good for quite significant cold. Let's hope it holds. You'd like to think so when you've been waiting 7 years but unfortunately it's a bit like if you spin a coin nine times and they all come up heads - the next spin is still 50/50 !

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Now that's what I call a good old fashioned RAMP 

Its been a few years!

 

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JFF of course. T+180

Something must be up when the snow row for Plymouth hits 10 and I live up on the moors so I can add 5 to that! But but if IF is tweeting wintery showers for the end of next week there is a disconnect then between model outcomes.. .

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Taking what I've seen on here, and what I've read on the met office I for one am not feeling overly optimistic for snow cover... though perhaps a greater then normal chance of a back edge slush covering. 

Anyone mind if I say the milder more anticyclonic weather looks almost nailed in for the new few days? 

I just thought that I’d point out that even if the milder stuff is quite nice rather than mild, wet and windy.

As for the cold, wet and windy later next week? We will see!

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I don't quite see the difference? Snow row of 1 for every run that shows snow at some stage in the 4 time steps each day isn't it?

What's the 23rd run by the way? Operational plus control plus 20 ensemble members plus ????

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I might be wrong, but I thought the 23rd was the mean of the ensemble members?

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Yes it is for every 4 time steps. (I thought you meant the snow row count was for each individual time step).

GFS Op and mean get the count to 23.

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The current pattern is very similar to December 62. If you study the pressure behaviour early-mid month is bears close resemblance to what has been/ is being consistently modelled now:

No mention of snow away from Scotland from the Met Office for next week/weekend but talk of snow risk as far as "central areas" after that. 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=120&mode=24&map=20 

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GFS fairly consistent with its cold wintry theme at the end of the week

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Yes, not quite as much ppn around but certainly cold. Out to T180 a bit more pressure on the block to the northeast rather than sliding lows but still looks not half bad.

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Location of HP seems to have shifted further northeast compared to the 06h.Be interesting to see how the ENS groupings turn out.

Doesnt change the consistency of the theme ....very pleasing 

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Even later in the run when the block fades the Atlantic just seems to have no push and it stays cold.

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Yes very consistent from GFS but Gem once again topples the high at 168. wil the ECM follow it again. Ukmo looks good at 144 not quite as good as gfs though. Still plenty of time for this to go pear shaped.

 

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Infact Gem is shocking long term . Flat as a pancake

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Still cold right out to T+240 on GFS but once again as soon as we get into the low res part a LP tracks east instead of sliding SE.

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The more reliable UKMO on the other hand is very good.

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GEM 168: yes, Toppler then milder.  This has been the fate of many an FI cold spell.  A potential outcome.  

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We may only be at T 144 now but until we see cross model agreement the odds remain slim. 

Stunning output from the UKMO and GFS. 

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A light covering for many by noon Friday 

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