Sorry - but I over heard murr sausage - what the heck does this mean? It's a murr Sausage? I know of Barlett high but murr? :o#

Sliders? What is this? A SLIDER of Low pressure sliding across the country in the NW to SE direction!?

Northwesterly gales and driving rain. Just a typical summer’s day! 

(Much lower wintry potential than the GFS option so far)

GEFS 12z looks to have trended significantly colder. It's a promising outlook for cold weather fans in most of the UK. 

Just a pity about ECM.

Of course, we would prefer GFS to verify, but what are the odds on that?

Slider on ECM @144 could do with it a tad further SW

And each day we are getting closer to Xmas! Hope it's seasonal - We have had so many well above average mild unseasonable Christmas's recently that I have lost count. We are well over due a cold snowy one. If it's not going to be snowy at least frosty and icy etc - We can't have another +10 to +15c on Xmas day time and time again. - I refer more to the SW I guess. Not sure about the rest of country.

Rain for many at t144

The ECM looks a good deal less cold than the ECM 12z run in the early to medium stages (at one point it warmer than almost every single GFS 12z ensemble member here). Cool, wet and windy does seem like the order of the day.

Yes,  cold Friday and weekend ahead for sure and probably best described as chilly/rather cold for much of next week with some variability; most likely rain in the S but the potential for some wintry ppn on higher ground at times - IMO (as always, snow most likely further N).

I think the METO have their extended outlook spot on with cold and mild(er) interludes throughout December - slow moving and without it ever being zonal/above average temperatures. How this plays out as we near Christmas remains to be seen.

This underlines the importance of caution in the build up to a "cold snap/spell"  and not to look further ahead for detail than 72 to 96 hours.

The ECM has impressive verification stats and may have this right.

Atlantic having a go at t192

Not the Atlantic as we know it , the NH view is the best , that’s sliding down from the NW

Wet n windy at D9 not the best of runs for coldies it must be said

The difference in the depth of cold is in the time scale you mention. I highlighted that there is a 500-1000hPa difference of around 10dam in places by 96hrs (and verification stats are not significantly different at that range AFAIK).

Shaping up for another Northerly on ECM at 216 

That Ecm is a kick in the groin. Hopefully wrong. 

No point putting tinsel on that turd. Horror show for coldies. Very much on its own though so hopefully for the bin.

Recall asking the very same thing last year! Still non the wiser. 

www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0

This is a kind of Murr sausage, though usually skinnier. A meridonal pattern with the jet going over the top but still delivering cold to the UK

Back OT, ECM is poor, no way to spin it

A narrow ridging of heights from SW to NE into Scandi that can result in a Scandi High.