indeed Neil but the Beeb have now mentioned significant snow possible on Sunday .....areas not mentioned 

I like the way ECM has ended up this morning 

No grumbles from me with the charts so far 

GEFs 00z showing signs of a change in the run up to Xmas with an increase in the number of milder outcomes. There will obviously be a lot of interest in that period and the cold weather in the short term is likely to shorten the odds of a White Christmas.  

She flagged Midlands northwards for Sunday on the 7.20 forecast. My raw MetO for Sunday gives light snow at around 6pm and with the wind direction looks like a more S'ly track as per GFS 00z to me.

Stunning output this morning.

Somewhere is going to get a lot of snow later this weekend, still not quite sure yet. Latest thoughts from GFS in terms of distribution - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_120_25.png

The latter stages of ECM looks decent too.

The snow risk is certainly very high across parts of the UK but it will go down to the wire in terms of which areas will be affected. Very exciting. 

ECM has obviously got the right idea 😉

Worth noting again how subdued the uppers are on ECM. A rough verification is possible during the imminent cold spell with GFS consistently 2-3deg lower with uppers than ECMin the build-up over the last few days runs.

Excitement for most is index linked to location Joe. If I was a snow-lover in Manchester this morning I’d be excited. For a South coaster I have to remain a little more subjective 😊

All of course still in the melting (pun not intended) pot and as we’ve read so many times disruptive troughs are notoriously tricky to model.

ECM this morning looks very much in line with the METO outlook, not an 1981 or a 2010 but certainly potentially notable given from my experience early to mid December is usually one of the most zonal periods of the winter both pre and during the modern era.

Yep... snow creeping our way if you believe the models.

Very likely to be a nowcast event - only problem it comes a day too late to enjoy the white stuff! 

I know its out of reliable  range but both the Sunday /Monday and Wednesday/Thursday sliders next week have  currently uppers in the -4 to -6 range which would suggest rain rather snow in the south.

ECM Day 8 ensemble mean shows a strong signal for ridging into Greenland and a trough in the North Sea. A long way off but a good long wave position for continued cold. 

The precise track of the slider continues to be adjusted with every run and every model. We should expect that to continue but with a slow reduction in the uncertainty - but I can see this becoming a nowcast for some come Sunday.

Remember Quantum’s post. -4/-6 is good enough, depending on other factors.

The lastest charts currently look decent for the West Midlands, but I am not going to get excited yet, since as others have averred above, marginal snow is invariably a nowcast for the UK. Fingers crossed though - would love to see lying snow.

A more notable event would be your omitting the phrase modern era from one of your posts. No sign on any of the models of that.

As Q pointed out so well yesterday I do think sometimes we rely too much on uppers in frontal snow events. Some of our best snow events happen when the uppers are above -5C.. I tend to prefer looking at the DP projections but obviously it is only GFS that supply that data.

Very IMBYism

I'm more than happy that

Absolutely! It looks good for here right now but as we all know the risk could slip south or north with less than 48 hours notice. I’m not counting my chickens quite yet. 

A more notable event for you will be the deletion of your account.

In these situations, you cannot be sure it will snow until you look out of the window and see that it actually is. I recall a huge disappointment from the 1980s (not sure exactly which winter) when heavy snow was forecast for the West Midlands for the next day - but when the next day arrived, it was just sunny and cold all day. My Aunt who lives in Bristol got snowed in - yet they had been forecast only rain. Proved to me that these marginal situations are very very hard to forecast with any accuracy, even 12 hours ahead - a difference of only 100 miles can lead to disappointment or joy.