GEFS12z update the coldest we've had this season? 

So true; and what a nice thing to be in a position to post on the MOD.

lots of marginal events = big surprises! Our friend evaporative cooling will play a big part

Certainly close to it, although it's interesting that we still aren't seeing any of those runs with a member or two going off on one (with 850s below -10C for a while - for London, at least).

Yes, there is lots of eye candy in terms of synoptics in the later stages of the GEFS but the cold pool to the east isn't modelled to be very impressive. Maybe because the easterlies are driven by a migrating mid-Atlantic ridge rather than a retrogressing Russian/Scandinavian lobe?

dont get him started on poor easterlies !!!

The GFS might be putting Sunday's snow event further and further south but after watching Gavin P.'s second video of the day, I discovered that the ECM has that much further north which then has those of us here in Scotland, still in with a chance of getting something from that. Of course, the ECM could be overdoing that a bit.

However, when Gavin P. showed us the 10 day precipitation trend, he mentioned that the outlook for that period was wetter than average. However, he failed to mention that this chart was showing SE Scotland (which includes where I live here in Edinburgh) as being completely on its own in terms of the fact that this area was shown to be still drier than average over the next 10 days.

Now, I know that we have been struggling to get any sort of significant rainfall here during recent months, and I know that Edinburgh has largely been missing out those interesting weather events (such as the recent snowfalls) which other parts of the country have been getting. However, the fact that one tiny part of the UK is shown to be drier than average whilst the whole of the rest of the UK is shown to be wetter than average just doesn't look right to me, regardless of where that is in the UK.

For me, that has to bring the overall reliability of the GFS model into question. Added to that, Gavin P. also pointed out that the CFS has consistently been forecasting each recent December to be vastly milder than average across the whole of Europe and in the end, has ended up producing a much colder outlook in the end for much of Western Europe during this month.

That led Gavin P. to say a few things about what he thought about the CFS model and we have to remember that the CFS is just the longer-term cousin of the GFS. This in turn means that if the CFS isn't really that great a model, the GFS can't really be either.

Because of that, I would probably much rather side with the ECM here and say that whilst it is unlikely that we will get any snow from that slider low on Sunday, it is probably actually still a bit too early to give up on any hope of that happening in the end.

ECM not too dissimilar to GEM at 120 with secondary low forming, tracking under the main sliding low.

Indeed I can't seem to post the links but strong simlarities between the ECM for 10/12 and the chart on 14/12/1981 

What a strange chart

its bound to go tits up now he's said that. 

Most of us didn't need Guido Fawkes to tell us that.  The problem is, what is the point in even thinking about detail at a range of 72 -96 hours in such a knife-edge marginal situation? None whatsoever. As the detail will shift, as it inevitably does towards the wrong side of marginal for most.

All it needs is a general statement about risk, keep an eye on the forecasts.  Bloody tw*tter!

I would keep an eye on the fax charts for Saturday as well. There could easily be late developing disturbances running south on that northerly when at its most potent. It earlier showed one running down the N.Sea. The track of these not usually pin pointed till less than T-24. 

GEFS does Scandi. 

Guido Fawkes? 

Looks marginal in much of the south to me.Presumably evaporative cooling is coming into play.

Clear formatting Ian, then Control C Control V for links

Also we can't see the intermediate frames. Perhaps it turns more favourable a few hours after this?

Btw that 14/12/81 chart that Shropshire mentioned: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1981&maand=12&dag=14&uur=0000&var=1&map=1&model=noaa

Uncanny!

 However you do have to remember that just beforehand we had seen deep cold with sub -20C temperatures across England – a tad different from nowadays!