Chilterns could be back in the game on Sunday. Very marginal.

The Forsyth saga?

Heights building further west in the Atlantic by T150. Not sure the next low will dive south as much though?

P.S. Stick!

Hi Brian

Now for a true IMBY post

It's looking less marginal tbh - assuming the low stays on this track - we do pretty well from sliders up in the sticks - Could be rain in Aylesbury and High Wycombe though

GEM... does a GEM...(not necessarily the precious stone)

...... and very nearly an easterly!!

Yes agree that clusters have turned colder.I make ratio cold ens to warm ens 65:35

ARPEGE seems to consistently have a lot more precipitation than the other models. Midlanders and northern Englanders should be happy with this one!

Meanwhile GFS is teasing us with another of those midwinter easterlies ...

Until of course, you got to a point where nothing actually changes and in that case, you would be bust because as Sir Bruce Forsyth used to say in that scenario, "You get nothing for a pair in this game" (or something like that).

Or as Bullseye's Jim Bowen used to say during the prizes round on that programme, "Nothing in this game for two in a bed".

Yes if anything it's even less clear after the 12z regarding the Sunday slider. Long term both GFS and GEm look promising Arctic,  Siberian,  Greenland and Scandinavian highs all possible this Dec be it seems.

Lots of cool and unsettled conditions around. Some very strong winds likely in the next 24hr in northern parts (hence the amber warning)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_27_1.png 

After that feeling cold in the wind with snow or wintry showers for NW parts (at least). Beyond then there still seems to be a good snow risk for some more southern parts of the U.K.

12Z looks like a decent enough run overall - precipitation type is an issue though, since it is sometimes clearly going to be rain in England, rather than snow.

I certainly can't recall any model runs from any December in the period from 2011 up to and including last December being as good as quite a lot of those we have seen of late. Obviously it's only early doors as far as winter as a whole is concerned, but on the evidence of the current output, we are getting off to a better start than any other winter has in the past 6 years.

I've just had a flip through the GEFS and there is a large number of Scandi high options (albeit the uppers aren't spectacular on many of them).

Some of the output is frankly X-rated.

With the usual caveat that these are height anomaly chart... this is 240 hours mean:



And this is the 300 hours mean:

And 384hrs:

Quite promising for the run-up to Christmas, I would say!

Try 17,18,19,20 for size

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=17&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=18&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=19&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=20&mode=0&carte=0