Yes, for the south we will need evap cooling and drier continental air mixing in. further west will be cold rain no doubt but it may miss us altogether anyway!

 

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Looks very similar as you say but I take your point about deep cold before it arrived. Was it a snow event from start to finish in the south or a mix of rain and snow? 

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The 850s in that 1981 chart look very similar to this Sunday.  I doubt the ecm has it nailed at 96h we prob won't know until Saturday for sure .

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[quote=Brian Gaze;948719]

 

Looks very similar as you say but I take your point about deep cold before it arrived. Was it a snow event from start to finish in the south or a mix of rain and snow? 

I was living in Northants at this time....We received around 10cm of snow from this....then a few subsequent falls just before Xmas..which stayed on the ground with below zero day maxes up until 29th....then thaw started....Then a repeat in Jan...

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Hi all, hope you're enjoying the fruits of what is a grand-scale atmospheric battle between the La Nina setup that stepped into gear last month and a warming in the western Pacific plus recent initiation of an eastward propagating MJO which are both attempting to distort the pattern away form the usual La Nina configuration.

The former contributes to the ridging into California and that +EPO with downstream amplification tilting the jet on a NW-SE trajectory into Europe (aided further by the unusually weak tropospheric vortex and an exceptionally persistent Arctic High), while the latter may trigger a shift in HLB focus from NW to N/NE of the UK by some 8-14 days from now... but that one remains highly uncertain as MJO propagation is not a strong point of the NWP models. The atmosphere is showing signs of cooperating with an eastward propagation, but it's not yet enough to certify that it will take place far enough to trigger the changes (it needs to cross the Western Pacific).

Not only does the HLB shift depend on that, but so does a fair bit of the wave-breaking into the stratosphere that the models are toying with in the longer-term. 

So while we play the slider lows game in the short-mid-term, the stage is either being set for continued blocking and cold/snow chances over the following week(s), or it is being deconstructed to make way for the 'zonal train' act that very few among us have invited to the show.

Apologies if this has tightened any nerves for those hoping for a cold festive period!   

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December 1981-

8th Dec - rain turns to snow over south generally except s coast. Chilterns 6"

11th Dec snow from low pressure over s mids and EAng further 10 "

13th Dec was the main event, not 14th. Massive blizzard across Central southern England.  IIRC Princess Anne trapped in snow in the Cotswolds.

I remember that massive drifts were piling up but at about 11pm on 13th it turned to rain - as it did across most of south and west

.  The next day revealed bigger drifts that id ever seen before - up to about 8 feet, there were further fall s after this. And an unofficial wx station at Preston Brockhurst (near Shawbury) recorded -29.8c.  Froze were the days!

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Its in the Met Office Library Brian see bottom left for day scroll down for next I often read them.

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/file/sdb%3AdigitalFile%7Ce286510a-3938-430f-bdba-34b9fabdb12c/

 

 

 

 

Interesting, but will say that the cold seemed to be much 'deeper' in the sub to near Arctic region back in December '81. Even by the 8th, the -20 isotherm was moving down passed Iceland:

 

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The ensemble mean has everything a few tens of miles south on Sunday, suggesting quite a few of the enseumble suite members track the LPs quite a bit further south (say 50-100 miles at a guess).

This is going down to the wire.  I still think it might be a case of looking out of the window for areas just to the NE of the track.  So many variables in play including intensity, surface temperatures, how quickly the system(s) come through, elevation.....

 

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I remember all 3 of those, I was living in a village 7 miles South of Banbury, we were cut off for 4 days .............brilliant times

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It was the Queen. Cross Hands, Old Sodbury in Glos. Apparently, the only time a reigning monarch has been put up in a pub.

Excellent to read an informed view on the wider picture - thanks James. 

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Welcome as always 

I must say, I'm enjoying this winter a lot more than the last one at this stage in December 

 

Interesting thoughts GTW regarding EPS mean - seems I won't be able to just ignore this one then, as much as I wish I could for the sake of my nerves .

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Very marginal indeed south of the Midlands

Looks similar to ECM with multiple lows? 

All, just adding to the “marginal 850s debate” which Q contributed so well to yesterday. Some of you will be familiar with this useful interactive website

https://www.ventusky.com/ 

One thing which caught my eye was the predicted snow cover developing into next week across north-east France, Low Countries and Nothern Germany which if it takes place, will likely reduce dew points and surface temps into the SE of England prior to the potential arrival of subsequent and successive slider lows as they move through in relatively modest 850s and winds are drawn from the ESE into the lows across the short sea track from the continent. There are many subtle differences between now and 1981. One of these is the lows in 1981 tracked W>E (with southerly winds developing off the warm channel in front of them) whereas those over the next week are tracking NW>SE so the sleet and rain which blighted the south and south east coasts in early Dec 1981 (as not very far inland was being buried) and referenced in the daily weather reports just posted, may not be a problem this time?

I can see the SE being most impacted (benefiting!) here. Thoughts?

Jeff

https://www.ventusky.com/ 

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 Sorry SC.....

At least it's forecast to arrive during the day. Nothing worse that pulling back the curtains expecting to see a snowy scene to discover everything is wet and rain is falling.

Meanwhile, the ECM ensemble mean 10 day northern hemisphere picture looks rather pretty with a dominant Arctic high and upper troughs and ridges in the right places for cold weather.

 

 

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The 18z has shifted the track of the slider slightly further north again....

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bbc week ahead says midlands north event with the slider. 

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As mentioned above the 18z continues to play around with the positioning of Sundays low, whether you’re in the firing line now or where on the last run I wouldn’t get all het up about it just yet.

Yes, it will change with each run, and there's a lot of runs between now and Sunday.  I recommend keeping expectations at zilch, and just enjoy the twists and turns of each model output as it up, or more likely IMHO down -grades.  The key thing is to expect nothing, and you wont be disappointed.

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Indeed. My post was intended to show the uncertainty, not suggest an outcome.  

Given the synoptics and how very finely balanced the battle zone looks I wouldn't expect this to be resolved for another couple of days, maybe even the Saturday 00z runs. By then the LP will be tracking in from the NW and the uncertainty will decrease. But when a few tens of miles can change what and how much falls even that won't be conclusive.

Meanwhile the 18z evolves a little more favourably for further snow in the wake of the LP. Monday morning snow cover:

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I agree , I wonder how many different positions GFS ( and other models) will show the slider in between now and Saturday evening?

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I sense a game of ‘low pressure centre’ bingo coming... 😂

Further Ahead beyond what is a rainfest for over 70% of the uk’s population, there are signs of the promised land and retrogression fuelled by the monster Arctic HP from the middle of next week.