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Arcus
07 December 2017 19:20:02

To add a bit of perspective, here's how the ECM 12z of 28th Nov saw tomorrow panning out:




 


 

Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Notty
07 December 2017 19:24:33


To add a bit of perspective, here's how the ECM 12z of 28th Nov saw tomorrow panning out:




 


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Good point very well made :)

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
07 December 2017 19:30:21


To add a bit of perspective, here's how the ECM 12z of 28th Nov saw tomorrow panning out:




 


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Indeed ecm has been shocking 7 days + recently 


 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gary L
07 December 2017 19:37:04

Not so sure about the trend Brian, certainly more mild options mixed in but it’s at day 10 the scatter starts. You are right about watching the meto med range text, I thought the idea of a blocked final part of December was a bit of a change...could be wrong!

squish
07 December 2017 19:40:18
Comparing the +72 and ( yesterday’s)+96 FAX charts shows a significant southward correction of the whole pattern . Given the changes at this shorter timescale, anything past 120hrs WILL change significantly in detail....but the cool/cold pattern looks like its set in for a while ...
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
07 December 2017 19:48:17


Not so sure about the trend Brian, certainly more mild options mixed in but it’s at day 10 the scatter starts. You are right about watching the meto med range text, I thought the idea of a blocked final part of December was a bit of a change...could be wrong!


Originally Posted by: Gary L 


Yes it changed today from being uncertain about the latter part of the 16-dayer to plumping for a high-pressure dominated pattern.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
soperman
07 December 2017 20:00:04


 


Tantalising for us southern folk. If I stand on a chair and look north I'll almost be able to see the snowfields of the fabled Arctic kingdom beyond the hallowed pathway known as M4 


 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Maybe for this baby we should use the less fabled M40 based on the initial west-east orientation? It should be cold enough to see some snowfall in the Chilterns over the weekend but lying snow may need to wait until Monday when the temps fall back.  5/6 degrees showing for Sunday by GFS as we are in the warm sector.


Still all to play for and we may get more of an indication of the track when it spawns off Greenie on Saturday.


At this stage, it looks great for the midlands though. 


 

PFCSCOTTY
07 December 2017 20:12:18

ECM not keen on building heights to the north in the long term though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Dont worry everyone will be in the same borderline boat soon and then into damp milder weather heading towards Christmas...soon as the BBC LRF gets interesting the opposites occur....

The Beast from the East
07 December 2017 20:15:55

extended ecm not very good. Lets hope its a case of the models being too progressive. But sadly, it does look like normal service is back soon. 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
07 December 2017 20:23:07


extended ecm not very good. Lets hope its a case of the models being too progressive. But sadly, it does look like normal service is back soon. 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Try to ease back on the happy pills, Geoff... they're making you far too cheerfully optimistic



Martin
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David M Porter
07 December 2017 20:28:53


extended ecm not very good. Lets hope its a case of the models being too progressive. But sadly, it does look like normal service is back soon. 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Before making assumptions one way or the other, I would advise you to have a read of Arcus' post on the last page showing the ECM 12z chart for tomorrow from 28th November (ten days ago now) and compare that to what has actually happened.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Hungry Tiger
07 December 2017 20:40:53


To add a bit of perspective, here's how the ECM 12z of 28th Nov saw tomorrow panning out:




 


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Quack Quack - oops.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Hungry Tiger
07 December 2017 20:49:12


Longer term term:  JMA 12z 192 - view from the pole: 850s A distinct cooling in the Arctic areas closer to us - a good sign IMHO for a decent cold shot at or soon after Christmas. A correctly placed Arctic High is what I will look for in the third and 4th weeks of the month.  Until then, its a few transient flakes as a reward for hours of diligent model watching. (if I'm lucky)



Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


I reckon January is the month we'll have to wait for.


 

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


The Beast from the East
07 December 2017 21:12:31


 


 


Try to ease back on the happy pills, Geoff... they're making you far too cheerfully optimistic



Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


i was expecting another mild winter and it will probably still be the case but this is a small bonus I suppose. but  once again we see a failure of HLB to take hold. This is a modern feature. Even 20 years ago the same background signals would  have resulted in a solid block 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
pdiddy
07 December 2017 21:19:26


 


i was expecting another mild winter and it will probably still be the case but this is a small bonus I suppose. but  once again we see a failure of HLB to take hold. This is a modern feature. Even 20 years ago the same background signals would  have resulted in a solid block 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


The models haven't nailed down Sunday's feature yet, so plenty of opportunity to see the HLB this winter...

doctormog
07 December 2017 21:25:48


 


The models haven't nailed down Sunday's feature yet, so plenty of opportunity to see the HLB this winter...


Originally Posted by: pdiddy 

Indeed. For those without calendars it is the 7th of December and over the next few days there is a real snow risk for a large swathe of the country based on current output. The 18z GFS will be out soon with no doubt further tweaks to the next 72hrs never mind beyond!

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
07 December 2017 21:29:27
GEM having a night off?
Whether Idle
07 December 2017 21:39:37


 


I reckon January is the month we'll have to wait for.


 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


With always an eye on perspective, it seems to me that more than ever we need the thermal lag to bring down those temperatures across the atmosphere to give us a fighting chance of a snow fall and then a snow-cover that lasts more than a few hours. 


All these bouts of northerlies (I think we are on bout 6 IMBY since November 15th), have brought the sum total of about 5 snowflakes IMBY, which in comparison with other 4 week periods close to the winter solstice dominated by northerlies, is absolutely pitiful.


The latest manifestation has a current temperature IMBY of 5.5c.  My hope is for a pattern change in the post Christmas period to some northern blocking to the N or NE.  That is the hope.  We all know the liklehood that the high will be positioned to the S or SW, but at this stage there is scope for hope. 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
UncleAlbert
07 December 2017 21:54:06
Just looking at the postage stamps on the last GEFS as there were a few comments about the loose trend towards an uptick in 850s towards the end. Only around 6 or 7 of them actually show no potential for cold taking 360hrs as a snapshot and as you would expect only the same amount show the vortex firmly established over Greenland. Certainly not quite normal service, even if the outcome for the majority is towards a milder UK at that time. Of course this may all change shortly........

Don't post too often, but great reading all yours folks, lets hope its a fun winter!
Brian Gaze
07 December 2017 22:05:45

GEM having a night off?


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


It just finishing at the moment.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
07 December 2017 22:06:04


 


i was expecting another mild winter and it will probably still be the case but this is a small bonus I suppose. but  once again we see a failure of HLB to take hold. This is a modern feature. Even 20 years ago the same background signals would  have resulted in a solid block 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


That is if we assume at this moment that the models will be proved correct. However as we have seen just recently, assuming that model solutions for several days ahead will definitely verify, is rather unwise.


Let's see what tomorrow's runs bring.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Gooner
07 December 2017 22:19:52


 


That is if we assume at this moment that the models will be proved correct. However as we have seen just recently, assuming that model solutions for several days ahead will definitely verify, is rather unwise.


Let's see what tomorrow's runs bring.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Some good posts on the other side with regards background signals . I for one think blocking isnt over just yet ........the Beeb confident of a cold week next week after a mild blip at the start of the week

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
07 December 2017 22:22:52


 


It just finishing at the moment.


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


GEM the only one still banging the gong for the south on Sunday!


The latter half of the run is a Euroslug shocker though.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
backtobasics
07 December 2017 22:23:30
not much comment on the 18Z so far ... looks a decent run to me up to Thursday next week. Still flattening out but that extra energy seems to be pulling in some fairly cold air from a north of west direction. tbh i'd take that over a LP in the north sea wafting coolish air (which isn't going to get any colder) over us. In the short term still plenty of opportunities to see some snow falling for many between now and Thurs next week.

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