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polarwind
22 February 2018 19:17:00


The longer term implications of this event are interesting too. Will it turn out to be an oasis in the dessert or be remembered as heralding a change back to colder European winters. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Why should you say that? Just interested, well.......... really, really interested.


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
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"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
moomin75
22 February 2018 19:18:16
O/T but looks like the other side has crashed. Hope you've put 50p in the meter Brian.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
tallyho_83
22 February 2018 19:22:52


 


synoptically I think we are closer to 1987....but depth of cold closer to 1991 because of the lateness in season.


Originally Posted by: squish 


I was trying to find the charts from the cold spell in Feb 2009 but couldn't find much and saw YT videos and even that snowfall event after the SSW in late Jan 09 didn't give us prolonged cold and the snow was very wet indeed although there was plenty of it. Anyone have the charts for December 2010 ...just wanted to compare /contrast?


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Scandy 1050 MB
22 February 2018 19:23:14


 


synoptically I think we are closer to 1987....but depth of cold closer to 1991 because of the lateness in season.


Originally Posted by: squish 


Indeed, rare to see anything like the synoptic setup for any winter month let alone virtually the start of spring - either way if the models are correct February / early March 2018 may well join the record books along with 87 and 91.  Fascinating if we get the -16c 850 temperature or lower anywhere in the UK so late in the season.

colin46
22 February 2018 19:23:15
Global warming my arse.
shine on you crazy diamond
192.104 m / 630.262 feet ASL
Karl Guille
22 February 2018 19:25:30


 


 


Been shared many times - i would say it's more like Feb 91 looking at these synoptic and isobars. 


By Ian McKaskill


Jan 87:


https://youtu.be/LB0IsvJlXVk


Feb 91:


 https://youtu.be/Hd6DuebHliY


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Anyone know what the uppers were in Feb '91 across the Channel Islands?  The forecast was showing 2m temps of -7 overnight and -3 in the daytime!


St. Sampson
Guernsey
nsrobins
22 February 2018 19:26:12
NWx server had crashed - not surprising.
A ‘warm’ welcome to all you NW refugees.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Scandy 1050 MB
22 February 2018 19:28:31


 


Anyone know what the uppers were in Feb '91 across the Channel Islands?  The forecast was showing 2m temps of -7 overnight and -3 in the daytime!


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


I don't know but I would guess something similar to what is being shown for next week as much earlier in the season in Feb 91?

Polar Low
22 February 2018 19:29:22

Good to see you posting James, Think the March minimum is around -23c


 




Well what can I say. The whole LP has tracked more east, keeping the UK in the deep cold flow - well okay, more of a waft at this stage due to the shallow low to the N, but that's going to be interacting with the deep cold pool as it gradually destabilises across the UK.


With that slackness of flow up north and extensive snow cover I can see temps making a run at the -20s Celsius should skies be clear (and that setup actually happens).


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

tallyho_83
22 February 2018 19:30:03

Global warming my arse.

Originally Posted by: colin46 


It's a myth said Donald Trump!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


jhall
22 February 2018 19:31:06


 


I was trying to find the charts from the cold spell in Feb 2009 but couldn't find much and saw YT videos and even that snowfall event after the SSW in late Jan 09 didn't give us prolonged cold and the snow was very wet indeed although there was plenty of it. Anyone have the charts for December 2010 ...just wanted to compare /contrast?


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


The NOAA reanalysis charts can be found here:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1


Just use the controls to the left of the chart to select the type of chart you want and the date you're interested in, and hit the Send button. It's then easy to step forward or back a day at a time.


Cranleigh, Surrey
hobensotwo
22 February 2018 19:33:40


 


Anyone know what the uppers were in Feb '91 across the Channel Islands?  The forecast was showing 2m temps of -7 overnight and -3 in the daytime!


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


Looking quite good for down here from the 12z's for later next week.


Its all going to come down to how that low moves about in the Azores. The ECM op plays it perfect for us, albeit bringing the Islands to a stand still.


However the 6z GFS op moves it to far north and brings up some milder air i.e rain.


Exciting times.

jhall
22 February 2018 19:35:00


 


Anyone know what the uppers were in Feb '91 across the Channel Islands?  The forecast was showing 2m temps of -7 overnight and -3 in the daytime!


Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=2&jaar=1991&maand=02&dag=06&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref


Cranleigh, Surrey
Polar Low
22 February 2018 19:36:52

Very interesting point Brian what are the longer implications and for how long? Will it afffect the following seasons maybe a very interesting period to come.


quote=Brian Gaze;977273]


The longer term implications of this event are interesting too. Will it turn out to be an oasis in the dessert or be remembered as heralding a change back to colder European winters. 


tallyho_83
22 February 2018 19:37:46


 


The NOAA reanalysis charts can be found here:


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/reanalysis.php?map=1&model=noaa&var=1


Just use the controls to the left of the chart to select the type of chart you want and the date you're interested in, and hit the Send button. It's then easy to step forward or back a day at a time.


Originally Posted by: jhall 


Thanks so much! Will book mark it! Yes confirmation there was no major blocking in Feb 2009's cold spell.


 



 


The coldest I can find are -12 to -14 uppers but only lasting a few hours during the Feb 2009 cold spell - so clearly uppers of -15 for several days looks like a much more impressive one than the last cold Feb we had which was i think in 2009:


2nd Feb 2009:



 


Compared to Feb 2018:



 


So we have to go back further to Feb 2004 or 2005 when we last saw a proper bitterly cold sub-zero easterly winds with windchill and significant snow:


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Polar Low
22 February 2018 19:41:31

And to think I only mentioned Andy Woodcock about 8 days ago amazing the models still remember him.



 


Yes I think it's looking more like 87 or 91 than 2013.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Norseman
22 February 2018 19:46:37


Good to see you posting James, Think the March minimum is around -23c


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


-22.8C on the 14th in 1958 in Aberdeenshire. Must have been a very cold week as four date records were made in Aberdeenshire and the Highlands on consecutive days.

sizzle
22 February 2018 19:49:20

GP UPDATE https://www.gavsweathervids.com/   looking good even out to day 10.....

doctormog
22 February 2018 19:50:51
Welcome to day ten of the new world order of weather (in the guise of the ECM 12z mean chart)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018022212/EDH1-240.GIF?22-0 
winterof79
22 February 2018 19:52:18

NWx server had crashed - not surprising.
A ‘warm’ welcome to all you NW refugees.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


 


Why Thank you 


Jason
Polar Low
22 February 2018 19:53:14

Think imho 1987 in EA is out on its own wiki even refer to it as very heavy lake effect event for EA nd S/E


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_1987_Southeast_England_snowfall


 


 



 


Yes I think it's looking more like 87 or 91 than 2013.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Whether Idle
22 February 2018 20:06:25

Some musings on the current forecasted severe spell:


The most loathed words I heard in the 1970's "its too cold to snow".  Might make the odd reappearance.


"There will be sleet and snow" - always disliked sleet as a waste of time. 


Rarely it was "there will be snow showers, or longer periods of snow"


This episode should be one of those types, pure snow.


Back in the 1980s there were far fewer cars on the roads, we could be set for travel chaos in 2018.  I think its fair to say the system (infrastructure) is going to be severely tested, and Ive a feeling at times we will come up short.


This is one for the coast dwellers, the lowlanders, those with a poor altitude.  This is our chance at glory.


I'm giddy with anticipation.  Its only been a 22 year wait for me.


WI


 


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
yorkshirelad89
22 February 2018 20:06:34

Global warming my arse.

Originally Posted by: colin46 



Sounds unpleasant 



Anyhow global temperatures still way above average despite the freeze, just because the UK is cold doesn't mean climate change is over...


Hull
Andy Woodcock
22 February 2018 20:09:44


And to think I only mentioned Andy Woodcock about 8 days ago amazing the models still remember him.


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Hi Guys!


No WIO post from me this year, with the SSW a cold March was always on the cards although I am stunned by the depth of cold, if of course it all verify.


With such deep cold I Think the MetO and Been are playing down the snow chances, indeed, the current output closely resembles mid February 1979, a often forgotten severe spell that gave the most widespread UKsnow I have ever seen including 20cms in St James Park London.


However, there is still time for downgrades which would be a cruel trick by the weather indeed.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Rob K
22 February 2018 20:10:28


Good to see you posting James, Think the March minimum is around -23c


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


-22.8C on March 14 1958. Amazingly the latest date on which -20C has been recorded is also the March record!


 


http://www.torro.org.uk/lowtempsyear.php


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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