theweatheroutlook

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tallyho_83
22 February 2018 18:45:53



Well what can I say. The whole LP has tracked more east, keeping the UK in the deep cold flow - well okay, more of a waft at this stage due to the shallow low to the N, but that's going to be interacting with the deep cold pool as it gradually destabilises across the UK.


With that slackness of flow up north and extensive snow cover I can see temps making a run at the -20s Celsius should skies be clear (and that setup actually happens).


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Life in a freezer' ha! Anyone want warmer weather go to Greenland looking at that chart!? Temps rising above freezing by day around mid next week in Godthab. There have been a couple occasions when the UK has seen colder weather than Iceland but to have colder weather than parts of Greenland!? This could break records!? Wish this was winter. Hope the cold gets here by 28th in time for my winter stats and to see the coldest day of the winter on it's final day. If only it went Feb 29th on Thursday but eh ho!

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Brian Gaze
22 February 2018 18:45:58


 


Shades of January 1987 and February 1991 IMO, James.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Yes I think it's looking more like 87 or 91 than 2013.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
22 February 2018 18:46:22
Lovely stuff at T192 as the low heads into France and pulls more cold air across the northern flank.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
22 February 2018 18:48:57


 


Yes I think it's looking more like 87 or 91 than 2013.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I'm just reminded of Ian McCaskill's calm and measured tones as he talked of "snow showers and in fact more prolonged spells of snow" moving in, I think were the words he used. 


My part of southern England isn't really best placed for easterlies so I think in order to get anything meaningful here I will need to see some LP at some point but let's get the deep cold in first!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
22 February 2018 18:49:26

Lovely stuff at T192 as the low heads into France and pulls more cold air across the northern flank.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


With -10 to -12 uppers too:!



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 18:49:30

Anyone else getting bored of seeing all these cold easterly charts run after run now?

Me neither.

ECM looks steady at 120hrs. Don't want the low bulging any further south mind.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


You must be joking. Cigar time!


 


Hope that Brian can preserve this thread in the archive sometimes so we can read over next week just to remind us.

Kingston Upon Thames
fairweather
22 February 2018 18:52:18


 


Is he Pete Thong’s cousin? Sounds a bit like onomatopete to me 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


That is quite good 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Karl Guille
22 February 2018 18:53:06
Six whole days with 850 hPA temps of circa -10 for the Channel Islands according to the ECM 12! Not sure that I have seen that since I have been on this site which is rapidly approaching 10 years!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018022212/ECM0-96.GIF?22-0 
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018022212/ECM0-216.GIF?22-0 
St. Sampson
Guernsey
The Beast from the East
22 February 2018 18:53:11

All round good tonight apart from GFS op, but the control was ok


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
tallyho_83
22 February 2018 18:54:14


 


Yes I think it's looking more like 87 or 91 than 2013.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Been shared many times - i would say it's more like Feb 91 looking at these synoptic and isobars. 


By Ian McKaskill


Jan 87:


https://youtu.be/LB0IsvJlXVk


Feb 91:


 https://youtu.be/Hd6DuebHliY


 

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


fairweather
22 February 2018 18:54:44


 


Any air from East of the Urals will be seriously cold. 


Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


Yep, I sense it's going to get chilly round the Urals 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
SJV
22 February 2018 18:54:52
Not sure how this ECM can be bettered. Truly astonishing!
ozone_aurora
22 February 2018 18:55:36

Perhaps it'll be the coldest March on record? 

The Beast from the East
22 February 2018 18:56:16

we don't want our high to go any further west!


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
22 February 2018 18:56:58
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.666/full 

1987 saw 495-496 dam thicknesses which were probably unprecedented since records began.

1991 saw 502 dam recorded.

The 144 ECM chart has 502 dam on the north coast of Norfolk.

So in terms of depth of cold we would be looking at an equal to 1991 if that verified.

In other words, the equal third coldest pool since thickness records began in the 1940s, beaten only by 1956 and 1987 and tied with 1991. Amazing that it would continue the 31-year pattern!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
22 February 2018 18:58:04

Astonishing run another upgrade madness -10 at least all the way to day 10.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
IanT
  • IanT
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2018 18:59:33
Off topic, but looking at the charts we should remember what this means for Continental Europe.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_2012_European_cold_wave 
Woking, Surrey. 40m asl.
Rob K
22 February 2018 18:59:50
Very slack conditions, snow on the ground, cold upper air... new March minimum record anyone?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
22 February 2018 19:00:24


we don't want our high to go any further west!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Seems like you're just as anxious if not more anxious than me??! ha!


Even by +240 we are still looking at uppers of -10 quite widely according to the ECM:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
22 February 2018 19:02:49

Not sure how this ECM can be bettered. Truly astonishing!

Originally Posted by: SJV 


 


I agree. The thing is after all these upgrades we will eventually see a downgrade at some point. Just hope we see the downgrade AFTER not before this prolonged cold spell is likely to occur, seeing as it's what many of us on TWO have been waiting for to happen during our winters over the past 5 years or since March 2013. - Which of course was our last prolonged cold spell. 


Since then all we really had are colder snaps and chillier air and or any snow that has fallen has been wet in nature and very transient and temporary.


Right I must have a break from computer model output watching! So much exciting stuff going on!! 


Still waiting for it to happen of course so I can be fully relaxed./


PS - Brian? - I wonder if this TWO site forum crashes due to the sheer amount of traffic browsing these topics we are almost at PG 10 and this thread was only created earlier today!?

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


fairweather
22 February 2018 19:02:59


Weather porn once more at t144 on the ECM 



Originally Posted by: SJV 


Shame Newcastle aren't playing at home that evening. I would have enjoyed watching those Geordie fans with their shirts off 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Charmhills
22 February 2018 19:04:01

Fantastic ECM 12z tonight.


That just round it all off I think.


I being transported back to the 80's.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
roger63
22 February 2018 19:09:08

Very slack conditions, snow on the ground, cold upper air... new March minimum record anyone?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


what o would most like to happen is blizzard conditions with severe drifting of snow.Which model at which time is nearest to this or is it too early to say?

squish
22 February 2018 19:10:18


 


 


Been shared many times - i would say it's more like Feb 91 looking at these synoptic and isobars. 


By Ian McKaskill


Jan 87:


https://youtu.be/LB0IsvJlXVk


Feb 91:


 https://youtu.be/Hd6DuebHliY


 


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


synoptically I think we are closer to 1987....but depth of cold closer to 1991 because of the lateness in season.

D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Tom Oxon
22 February 2018 19:15:00



Slight trade-off here; uppers not as stunning as UKMO but this is due to a shallow disturbance in the flow and in any case they're stillv ery impressive and with plenty more lined up nicely up-flow.


Will be interesting to see whether the next disturbance is again used as a door-opener for LP to invade from the SW on this run. I am skeptical of such an outcome but if ECM keeps doing it then I will start to accept that it really could pan out like that.


Edit: cache caught me out; I see +144 has already made my point for me about the cold up-flow!


Low by Azores perhaps not advancing quite so fast. Looking out for secondary lows splitting away east int the Med. as that's more typical when LP tries to move in against such deep cold air and from so far south.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


I'd certainly take slightly warmer uppers for more disturbances.

S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.

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