I am staring at the charts in dis-belief this morning .

As a kid I would draw weather charts showing my dream scenario. Cold pool advancing, 3 days of NE'lies followed a lull ahead of a channel low and then a re-load. I'm stunned 

It truly does not get better than this.

Ice days guys.....ICE DAYS ! 

EDIT - I never thought it possible for my heart to race while casually looking at the morning outout.

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Mine is north-facing!

I'll be clearing the flatroof of the poorly built extension regularly to avoid significant build-up.

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If it all materialises its going to be tough for those working outdoors and other life trying to survive. Thankfully its the end of winter not mid, but the mess that is the Arctic seems to be having an effect upon us.

 

Shropshire is over.

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Anticipation and exhilaration at the prospect of the long awaited return of The Beast has for me now turned into a kind of trepidation. Some of the latest charts are more than spine-tingling - they're blood curdling.

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Is there such a thing?

My word it just gets better and better.
The cold is actually moved forward on the GFS and ECM with -10 850hpa into here by 00z Monday.

Off to get some grit and other supplies this morning before any rush. I do hope the DIY shops still have winter stuff out (I get irritated by shops selling stuff for the next season rather than the current one!).

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I wasn't the only nerdy weirdo then Steve 

I went a step further and made cut-out sets of all weather/temperature/wind symbols and added to my large, homemade floor board-map - in the style of the magnetic symbols of the late 70s/early 80s** Forget the Game of Life and Monopoly. I wanted to launch my Weather Board Game. Maybe I'd be super rich if I saw it through 

** Child's play was a world apart from today's laptops, phones, tabs etc.

On topic, simply the best charts I have seen. The complete reversal in the N.H is astonishing.

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Spare a thought for those in the transport industry. I’ll be getting my staff ready at the airport for the abuse they will have to take from customers that have flights canx etc. Snow is a nightmare but general public are worse.

Up to 30c above normal in parts of the Arctic on the latest CR map. 

 

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Here is the day 6 ECM 00z ensemble mean view

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2018022300/EDH1-144.GIF?23-12 

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Was looking at chart as shown on TWO... One must be wrong?!  I’m guessing it’s the -20c one!

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ICON? It's not currently showing 850s on TWO, the plot is a higher level, 500hPa I think from memory.

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nah that can’t be right   I reckon that’s one of gusty’s early works, good colouring in though ;) 

Yup, I have known a streamer up Southampton Water from IOW very rare but these are historic times

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This is all a bit like an asteroid on its way to earth which the scientists have been tracking for the last two weeks and held off telling anyone about in case its just going to be a near miss. This morning, they have just realised that its going to be a direct hit and they have started to gently tell people about it. I’ve been looking at daily synoptic charts for the last 40 years. As Gusty says, today’s output look like made-up charts but if thats the case, then someone has been messing with all the models. The only comparison I can think of is 31/1 January 1979 with a huge HP Northern Canada and stretching across Greenland and into Scandinavia but it was not persistent like we are seeing now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_2_1978123100_1.png 

I know we are all focused on the cold and snow possibilities but does anyone think there’s something strange going on after the unprecedented SSW? Not sure if anyone heard the radio 4 weather this morning but the presenter mentioned “record” February cold coming up.

Jeff

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This is all a bit like an asteroid on its way to earth which the scientists have been tracking for the last two weeks and held off telling anyone about in case its just going to be a near miss. This morning, they have just realised that its going to be a direct hit and they have started to gently tell people about it. I’ve been looking at daily synoptic charts for the last 40 years. As Gusty says, today’s output look like made-up charts but if thats the case, then someone has been messing with all the models. The only comparison I can think of is 31/1 January 1979 with a huge HP Northern Canada and stretching across Greenland and into Scandinavia but it was not persistent like we are seeing now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1978/noaa/NOAA_2_1978123100_1.png 

I know we are all focused on the cold and snow possibilities but does anyone think there’s something strange going on after the unprecedented SSW? Not sure if anyone heard the radio 4 weather this morning but the presenter mentioned “record” February cold coming up.

Jeff

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There is. With a subtle ESE vector and uppers sub -12 the established Channel Streamer can throw a line into the eastern solent and catch the coastal strip between Selsey across to Lepe with a dump. Very rare but seen it a few times in the late 70s and again mid 90s

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As I said yesterday some people are speculating that it will have an impact on the NH circulation for years. There's no doubt in my mind that something changed after 1987 and there's no reason to think it couldn't happen again.

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Now this one I like. ARPEGE T+102.

Nice little conveyor belt/streamer setting up for CS England there.

Thanks for explaining 🙂 But this time I don't think it will be happning with winds E/NE :(

London and the SE has just had its first Met Office weather warning of snow from 4pm Monday to end Tuesday. I am still astonished the media and news channels are not warning folk of the seriousness of this forthcoming cold spell. I accept behind the scenes the services are quietly preparing but I do think that the news outlets have a responsibility to give people as much warning as possible in extreme events such as this.
I also notice, unless I have misread, that the models are extending the length of this severe spell?

 

Hi Brian 

I remember 1987 well I was stationed in Germany,Were we about to enter a solar minimum period back then as we are now?

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Sorry, yes it doesn’t specify 850s... However I’m pretty sure they’re not 500s either as these would be far lower.... Having compared to 850s on other models they routinely appear about 2-5c lower... 750s maybe?

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I've known Solent streamers but never snowy ones.. a SE cold enough to bring snow showers would be highly unusual 😊