Were the ECM to verify to day 8 (which it almost certainly wont as shown) then a lot of southern England would be seriously buried in snow.

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OK, forget any other runs for the rest of the week I'll take ECM T+168 & T+192 please.

Great ENS this afternoon- 5 days with mean < -10 (would be 6 days if the lefty Op wasn't being so expressive); with 192 snow rows (although it topped 200 this morning).

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If the ECM Op @ T192 verifies, there will be significant snowfalls for much of the southern half of the UK from this Low (and continued snow showers further N).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=192&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

The Low is moving slowly and this could result in up to 48+ hours of snowfall for many. The 850s remain at ca. -5c to -10c and of course, the 2M temperature will remain conducive for snow.

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Yes as I said on the last page we are looking at a 500dam cold pool which is a very very rare beast indeed. 

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any sides with that, sir?

Can I tell friends and family now??

I even think I may see a snowflake or two if the ECM verifies. 😂😂

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Lets be fair the ECM is a possibility ....the LP is being modelled to approach from the South 

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At 120 we have 501 dam in east Anglia. I reckon a 126 or 132 hour chart would maybe show an elusive 499.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=na&charthour=120&chartname=thickuk_only&chartregion=uk&charttag=UK%20thickness 

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T+216 pretty good too; nice easterly flow coming off the North Sea.

So after the Great Blizzard ECM reloads the cold at 216hrs as the -8c uppers are replaced with -10. Speechless.

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So some knowledge is required here (by me, not you)- does the map change resolution below 520dam or thereabouts? It's mapped in intervals of 2dam down to 522 and then that 510 line on count-back should be 516 if the sequence continues. 

Edit: yes, thanks Rob; I've seen the other charts on GFS and that's answered my question. Amazing; so how does this thickness compare to minima in the Jan79, Jan 82, Jan 85 and Jan 87 spells anybody? I seem to recall a 492 brushed us once...anecdotal.

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This ECM might be the best run I've ever seen.

Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them

21st

22nd

Today

my issue entirely 😮 I’m keen to warn but don’t want to fall on my face. I’ve totally replanned next week myself, don’t want to affect other people’s week 😳

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Its one to watch Marcus.  I'm a bit dizzy.  I cant actually believe the charts I'm seeing.

They are FI after around day 4-5, but the possibility is there, it looks so logical...

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Yep, like Day After Tomorrow! 

Until tomorrow's 0z!! 😁😁😁

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&time=216&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

T216 is also an awesome chart.

As the snow peters out from the W, continued snow/snow showers look likely in the E.

Nights will be very cold with any clearer skies and snow cover and further more, the Atlantic is dead. No foreseeable sign of any breakdown from the W from here.

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And an Arctic high forming too. This is only getting started!

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that chart is incredible 

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MG

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I can see a rinse and repeat brewing from ECM at T240 too.

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And yet, still a total disconnect with BBC local weather forecast. on South Today, temp next week around 2deg, up to 4 by Friday...and just the chance of a snow show overnight Monday into Tuesday...what is going on?

Why wouldn’t you? I’ve made some real duff calls over the years but also some good ones. It’s called weather forecasting and I never feel embarrassed about getting it a bit wrong at times. I called this 6 days ago and I’ve got school teachers and NHS staff on my group who are grateful for the warnings. 

On the subject of the ECM. Quite frankly it’s the run of the week, if not the literally the century ☃️❄️

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