Probably being too progressive but consistent theme from gfs

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Did you ride through the snow on your penny farthing? 

You don't look a day over 110!

 

That GFS is a minor tweak away from being epic for everyone. 

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bloody hell you are a lot older than I thought - what do you make of the potential milder incursion?

I’m not sure I remember that one - must have been just before I started keeping records. 

Messy on the 18z GFS op run in the medium to longer term http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_186_1.png 

That could go either way and should really be viewed in the context of the ensemble data later.

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This may be a good moment to plug a topic I started today called "Classic snowstorms of the past", of which I identified the 1891 blizzard as being one: 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=18636

In 1891, though, I don't think the milder air ever made landfall in the UK.

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GFS18z brings a mix of rain, sleet and snow next Friday and Saturday. Not a big fan of this evolution at all.

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March 1891. A tweak here and there and this could be a repeat.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/6521a2e68f3165fcae35bbab6b956e4b/article/a_look_back_at_the_great_blizzard_of_march_1891.html 

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Truly bizarre synoptics by 222 hours with a NE to SW flow across the entire Atlantic. I think GFS is losing the plot.

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Let's hope so. I'm not fond of it's FI, not after the joy of ECM's earlier!

 

edit: Bermuda High get to the Media Thread, man! 

GFS has been worryingly consistent though, three runs in a row it has done this with the low pressure. ECM has also been pretty solid too.

This is one situation when a "halfway house" would be spot on!

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Yes a battleground setting up between GFS and ECM. I hope GFS progressive tendencies and underestimation of the stubbornness a coldpool can provide let it down here.

UKMO 168 probably a little closer to GFS but hard to say given the orientation of that chart.

Yes, a blended solution normally means we get something drab and unremarkable... This time it could make for something very special. The 12z Op was far more progressive with the mild incursion that almost all other perturbations, including the control.  Interesting... but even it itndoes gonthe way of the 18z Op, it will have been a special spell, albeit short.

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There's always some sort of hurdle to get over when we look forward to cold spells. Usually we fall flat on our faces at some point, or at the very least we twist an ankle and limp over the finish line. One final hurdle is this low on Friday - let's hope GFS is out on its own and backtracks in the days to come.

Have we established if the so called MetO 168 is actually that or is it the MOGREPS control run? 

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To be fair plenty of people in the more northern and western parts would be quite happy with that epic snowstorm. 

 

FWIW my automated forecast on my phone has just flipped colder for the weekend. Now shows snow on Friday Saturday and Sunday!

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High risk high reward definitely! Up here we'd get plenty of snow from it too but I'm greedy and I want the whole month of March to be cold 

Brian - no idea if it's MOGREPS control or not, I'm just calling it what everyone else calls it!

Looks like a bit of a shift towards the op run solution in the GEFS. Mean is two degrees higher by T156 in London, more members bringing in milder air.

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So the breakdown commences? 😂😂 Winter is over 😚😭😉

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Generally, I always feel the GFS model is good at picking up pattern changes, but it does seem to be a bit eratic at times and has a tendency to overdo Atlantic progressions. However, nailing the Northerly extent of the advancing low which is almost a week away, must be subject significant error. 

I'd take a punt at GFS being right in terms of the general pattern, but there's no need to worry too much at this stage about the detail. At least 4 to 5 days of deep cold and snow looks pretty much nailed on now.

 

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I wonder if ICON is malfunctioning?  I've noticed that it keeps showing the precipitation as rain, even with 850s down at -12c.  Then there's the way it shows showers in the North Sea not penetrating far inland In East Anglia, eastern Scotland and a few other areas. Here's the cumulative precipitation chart. Given the wind direction and strength that just doesn't look right.

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I won't ask how old you are then?

Interesting how both Wednesday and Thursday are showing maxes of -2c in many areas yet the BBC fail to come up with any warnings and over cook temps and show +2c But anyway back on topic.,

Looking unusually cold for mid afternoon this Wednesday and Thursday: I wonder what the windchill would make it feel like -10c? seeing as the BBC can't talk about this?

 

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Control has the mother of all snowstorms at t180. Takes the low even further north than the op but it's colder, too.

Yes subtle difference between control and Op. 

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WELL it would be March the 1st ;)