Hi all,

Here's today's video update:

JMA Friday;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

The monthly anomalie suggesting the chance of a very dry December perhaps?

Also has a look at next weeks northerly. Or should that be Phantom Northerly?

 

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Aside from the fact that what was shown on the 0Z was not a Barttlett high, with divergence as dramatic as this between successive runs - I doubt it really matters what is shown.  Links are courtesy of Meteociel's forum copying facility so hopefully no issues and I've only used the visuals on this occasion for effect.

 

                                                                                                                                                                                        

True, reference to Bartlett was tongue in cheek.... should have emoticoned.   Even though we don't exactly have all the ingredients in place for a sustained cold spell (yet!), the patterns don't indicate a sustained flat zonal or Barlett type scenario either... which is beginning to turn this into quite an interesting model watching spell.

 

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

Really is all over the shop after the 5th

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there does seem to be a biase towards cold though - if only slightly

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I suspect Andy was referring to the previous GFS run, i.e the 00Z.

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well then the 12z gfs is out 

This storm is still concerning me a little .  a little further south an it would introduce alot of snow to the borders and mountains in scotland.  With strong winds further south. Followed by gales and snow blizzards on mountains.

 

Could be quite an explosive couple of days weather

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131129/12/150/h850t850eu.png

 

Longer term is still chaotic, but i reckon by mid week models will have settled on a firmer solution - with I think colder weather being in favour.  Lots of options being thrown up on each run. so not really looking past next Thursday for now.

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A jug and then a Kettle then Jarred GFS.

OMG, 12z GFS, It does Retrogress next Week on Wednesday 4th, and through Thursday 5th December, the Large Polar Vortex locates in NE Atlantic North and znE of UK, and we get to trap the short Wave Low on Thursday, that then brings us A Very Cold NW and North flow from Thursday's Deep LP and Very Strong Severe Gale West winds with Squally showers and a large batch of heavy rain- merging into more prolonged Showers, a chance of Sleet and HEAVY SNOW Showers for Friday 6th December 2013- which the GFS 12z run persists over UK even on Saturday 7th December.

We see A large Anticyclone High this Weekend which moves East then West, with Greenland To NE N Europe SE Arctic and Svalbard get more Cold Weather and West to East Tracking Low Pressures.

On Monday plus Tuesday we see more High Pressure, and by Wednesday and Thursday the Lower Heights Over Greenland be replaced by large growing High, and A zipped away Low from NE USA NF and NW Atlantic, is expected to remove the UK High, by Thursday.

A Deep And Separated Deep Low in NE USA and Newfoundland and Another Deep Low in NE Canada Arctic link together- and Greenland High as well as the New Retrogress Block High establishes in North Central Atlantic, well out West away from us.

I am very interested in the next 6 days- GFS and UKMO plus ECMWF need a lot of careful Watching.

We could turn very wintry in som parts of favoured Britain.

And seeing the PFJ Low transported SE to the Meditteranean this Weekend and then watching a slip off to a PV Low set over UK on Thursday next week and beyond- looks very interesting.

We then Could re Double the opportunity for Cold NW flow- even a full blow Arctic plunge- twice, as looking to w of Greenland and the Newfoundland Low link up to Arctic area Low NE of Canada- if they shift SE and help Re develop again the a High over Greenland, plus send those merged Polar Vortex Trough Lows to cross SW then move out from E Greenland to Iceland and we get more High riding in West N Mid Atlantic for the 2nd Week December round two NW flow it may turn out as a very prolonged Spell of Arctic Weather over N and West a Central Europe and the UK- right through to Mid December.

We have to be very careful each day's Models Outputs could still change this forecast, so it is not really highly possible.

My experience says that the weather may well be kind in December 2013, I say to the GFS, UKMO and EMWF, just treat each day with faith, thanks for trying to bring a change if you are able to put in your thoughts and pay attention and be sensible with us at The Weatheroutlook then you will be treated fair.

Do not throw us down very easily- it waste a lot of our time as we try to be nice members on here.

Chill Out Central and Much of USA inc. the West East and North we know you like your prolonged arctic Snow and long cold winter's and the Same goes for North and NE and a Central Europe.

Enjoy your snow, but try to get some over to the UK, A Cold Winter Spell is quite a picturesque and Tranquil Site and you can share some with us at a Model Output- we get very upset if we get spoilers.

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This is not at all a fuss, at all.

We know it. I am again very satisfied that Today's UKMO 12z Operational Forecast is very Optimistic for turning it Very windy and Stormy by T144hrs, and the Arctic plunge is a direct NW turn Northery Arctic Polar Flow.

ECMWF comments are expected soon, the 24hrs or 12z chart one T 500 hPa and T850 hPa looks much as with the Similar agreement between GFS and UKMO.

There may be some downgrades or a maintained forecast from these three, they need watching throughout next week as well as this Weekend, confidence requires fair justified evidence I hope the Models co ute the current scenario it looks great for the UK.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-144.GIF?29-0

ECM out to 144

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-168.GIF?29-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH0-168.GIF?29-0

A cold flow, wintry showers a plenty

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Yes, the -15C line isn't too far from northern Scotland there!

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH1-192.GIF?29-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH0-192.GIF?29-0

A disturbance running down the UK, cold and no doubt wintry in places

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH0-216.GIF?29-0

HP over the UK, cold all the same

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112912/ECH0-216.GIF?29-0

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Still looking good for a potentially potent cold snap from the north somewhere in the period between the 5th and the 7th. Still too far away for high confidence in detail, longevity or even whether it will come off, but as it is things still look encouraging for some form of wintry conditions for some next weekend.

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Edinburgh doesn't do well from North/Nor-Westers, but it should blow showers a long way...

That looks like very heavy snow for the east. A very cold northerly if a fairly brief one. Has the ECM got it right or has it gone off on one again time will tell.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.html 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=192&mode=1

JMA says NO

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Thats a shortwave ie no closed circulation it is indeed very heavy snow moving south  later charts would be very cold at the surface under snow cover also hints of a scadi push later on very wintry for most with that long thermal sea track.

 

 

 

Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday November 29h 2013.

All models remain in unison between now and the middle of next week with High pressure in control over or to the West of the UK with fine and dry weather. Some brighter conditions are likely tomorrow but anticyclonic gloom will gain momentum again across all areas through Sunday then likely last until midweek when Westerly winds freshen markedly across the North of the UK. Temperatures though not spectacular will likely remain average for the time of year with little in the way of frost and fog.

GFS then shows a deepening Low move East close to Northern Scotland bringing stronger winds and rain followed by a dramatic drop in temperature as a cold front sweeps SE bringing rain to all and then following it with sleet and snow showers extending SE across many areas through Friday and into Saturday. Winds then steadily decreases and less cold conditions for a day next weekend with sharp overnight frost. Thereafter the operational model sees a rapid change to more active Atlantic based weather with spells of rain and severe gales at times but with some quieter and brighter spells in between. Temperatures will be close to average but it would sure feel cold in the windy and rainier periods with some snowfall at times on Scottish hills.

UKMO tonight shows next Thursday as a much windier day with increasing Westerly winds veering NW or North later in the North. Rain crosses SE through the day with an abrupt drop in temperature behind it with snow showers affecting Northern and Western hills and coasts by the end of the day spreading SE.

GEM shows a more glancing blow from the Northerly at the end of next week and start to the weekend with some wintry showers in the NE. The rest of the weekend becomes dry and cold as High pressure transfers across before deep Low pressure near Iceland and Greenland has a broad SW flow across the entire North Atlantic with disturbances running NE in the flow bringing rain at times in relatively mild conditions, the most rain likely towards the North and West.

NAVGEM ends next week with no Northerly at all and instead keeping things very basic and ordinary for early December as High pressure slowly recedes away SE and allows a moderate and milder SW flow to bring the threat of rain at times, more especially towards northern and Western areas.

ECM tonight shows a colder snap later next week and the start of the weekend as a deepening Low runs East into Northern Europe and sends a plunge of cold air down across the UK with rain followed by a period of frequent sleet and snow showers with some accumulations in places over the hills of the North. As with previous runs the cold is relatively short-lived as High pressure moves ESE down across the South cutting off the flow and bringing less cold air back down over the UK by the start of the new week. Sharp night frosts could persist somewhat longer though in the South.

The GFS Ensembles shows good support for a short cold snap late next week and equally good support for a warm up thereafter with temperatures likely to be exceeding the average in the week after next but with a more changeable weather pattern looking likely with rain at times.

The Jet Stream shows the flow well to the North of the UK for the next three to four days before it moves SE down over the UK while the cold snap occurs next weekend. Thereafter the flow blows in a NE direction quite strongly over the Atlantic and across the British Isles pulling milder air NE over the UK should it evolve as shown.

In Summary tonight the weather remains benign for the next four to five days with anticyclonic gloom and temperatures uninspiring but not cold. Soon after midweek much colder air is shown to blow down across all areas for a time. There would be snow showers coming thick and fast to Northern and Western coastal hills with drifting of the snow in the bitter wind through Friday and Saturday. The depth of cold is short-lived by all models but there are variations in the details of the weather to follow with much more mobility looking likely later with mild SW winds, rain and gales all featured in the later outputs supported too by many members of the GFS Ensembles. While all models as already stated support just a short cold snap late next week the depth of cold is quite marked this early in the season and the evolution taking us out of the cold may be more gradual than is currently shown in my opinion.

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Models have reverted to bringing colder air towards the UK. Cold spell still very much looks on imo. 

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Have a look at thickness Q 510 dam over s/e ecm at 192 very wintry indeed and very early push of winter cold

But its only ecm we wil have to wait and see.

Holy bartlett, you can see the -15C isotherm scraping shetland on the ECM. Its unfortunate it won't come off, but in my lifetime I don't think Ive actually ever seen a neg 15 before (I mean at 0 hours!). Last march came pretty dam close though. 

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It may have happened a few times but for the south at least January 1987 had t850s below -15°C I believe.

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Yeh but I wasn't even a ball of cells in 1987 

Oh incidently, does anyone know the lowest uppers ever recorded in the UK? I think as far as full thicknesses go it was in the late 490s, but what about 850s?

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