Thinking it will be short cold blast with most if not all snow reserved for the north and the potential for some pretty strong winds.

That's been my take on it since the potential for this cold spell first appeared and I have seen nothing that changes my thoughts. Still, it will be some days yet before the exact details and what happens thereafter are nailed.

JFF http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=19&ech=348&mode=0&carte=1

 

about 2 weeks away, ptb 19 from 6z

Maybe 1/100 chance?  Could be worth a bet.

 

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The 12z GFS is quicker with the cold compared to the 6z - a snowy Thursday for the north?

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1141/gfs-2-126_xwj7.png 

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This run has the cold looking very short lived but I have a feeling something silly will happen later in the run...,,

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=144&code=0&mode=0

GFS at 144 has lights winds over most of England, settled anticyclonic weather.

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GFS says no

UKMO still says yes

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I suppose this just shows how hard it is to get cold weather in this country. If something can go wrong, it usually does!

 

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The GFS version of events continues to degrade the cold snap into a quick whiff with the cold air never getting into the South. GFS still wants to develop a low and push energy quickly across the Atlantic later next week, snuffling the cold blast in it's tracks.
UKMO however holds firm so the jury is still out

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Yup! The weather - sponsored by Gillingham FC

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Well I had a good look at 12z GFS Output and it appears that there is a Pesky Slow to move Azores High and we have A Strong PV Low well SE off Newfoundland placed at Mid NW Central-Far Side N Atlantic.

The PV and Deep Low To our North moves East to North and Central E & Mid & NE Europe- this comes off Iceland and the Arctic Plunge affects Scotland Central and N plus NE England on the Thursday, and then at same time and soon a day later it leaves UK to affect NE Europe etc. North Sea!.

The Slow Moving Western N Atlantic Low is kept just off SSW Greenland and We see this dominate there during second half of next Week- that wave arm of Jetstream then looks set to gently push our brief cold plunge of Thursday over to E and NE- it the PV Low plunges South to N NE Europe and the Azores High sits right over UK West NW side NW mainly UK not W. Europe - nearer UK.

This looms a clear idea at the current GFS solution today.

We often see this happen many times.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

UKMO 144 is by then(Friday)  a glancing blow to the east, chilly and more settled further west with the upstram pattern looking flat.  A 2 day blast for the north looks likely with snow on hills and wintry showers, less windy cold and more settled towards the SW before frost returns under clear skies on Sunday...

 

These 144 charts are as we know subject to considerable change, so ECM will be of some interest this evening. 

We will probably have to wait til Sunday evening before getting a full grip on the extent and longevity of the cold snap.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=228&mode=0

Into FI and GFS delivers a mild windy picture, with Atlantic air penetrating deep into  Europe.  Should it verify, the big 6 energy firms will be displeased.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

Not that mild

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn33617.png

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The Azores High hangs on for UK - and a One Day Thursday Arctic Plunge moves off to affect NE Europe right into the Central mid side Europe North.

Friday UKMO the UK looks cold with frost possible for many (Early and Late).

The Azores High comes from the West and SW, and the Greenland High stays in place at 1030 millibars.

UKMO is like the GFS at 120 and 144hrs.

With same NW Atlantic Pesky Low- ready to go towards our distant N Atlantic eventually- to near SW of Iceland at 144hrs.

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No, thats 4 days further on, and it has cooled down a tad.  All academic as it will be different on ECM and on the 18z

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Yeah, right.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/ds/gfs.htm

If you're looking for cold - don't bother clicking on this lot.

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The GEFS mean is useless tonight.

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=0

Two clear clusters, mildish and cold... never the twain shall meet!

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CET prediction time... GFS is not much help, varying the extent to which energy - and the cold air - digs south, with the 00z and 12z runs more progressive than UKMO and even further away from ECM, while the 06z was much closer to their solutions.

UKMO is showing an uncertain day 6 chart tonight, with energy sneaking over the top but not much of it, with more energy being held back as a negatively tilted trough.

I think tonight's ECM will influence my CET prediction by as much as +/- 0.5°C 

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ECM - keep the faith!

A good, old-fashioned battle of the models is on tonight. GFS pushes a low through the nascent Atlatic ridge and crashes the party.
ECM holds the ridge and allows circa -10 northerlies to flood south by the weekend.

Will the cold plunge do a Comet Ison a la GFS, or will ECM rule the roost?
Stay tuned.

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ECM not backing down on a major northerly cold blast. Much better than the ukmo

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html 

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Everytime this happened last winter the ECM won out. Naturally as soon as someone pointed that out this season and mocked anyone who still used the GFS, it battered the ECM a week ago.

What will happen this time? Well....... Haven't got a bloody clue [sn_shy]

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Not convinced until I see GFS and GEM start to move towards ECM - we had this a little while ago where ECM was sticking to its guns for at least two days then suddenly backtracked and eventually backed GEM and GFS. UKMO was the first to go before ECM, are UKMO and ECM right or is GFS and GEM wrong? Tomorrow's evening runs may have sorted this out by then but given it's ECM bullish on a northerly and not GFS, there's a chance it might be right - as ever more runs needed.

If that little low in Holland can get a bit closer to theUK we could have a major snow event on our hands.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html 

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Cold soon gets blasted away though but at least it's there from ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html 

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At that range it probably won't even exist come the day anyway.

My guess is some sort of northerly looks likely at this moment. It also looks like being relatively short lived. More runs needed etc

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I wonder if at the surface it would be mild for at least the southern half? Anyway, it wouldn't take much of a shift north of the high to leave us with cold and foggy conditions.

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