'Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow!
You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout
Till you have drench'd our steeples, drown'd the cocks!
You sulphurous and thought-executing fires,
Vaunt-couriers to oak-cleaving thunderbolts,
Singe my white head! And thou, all-shaking thunder,
Smite flat the thick rotundity o' the world!
Crack nature's moulds, an germens spill at once,
That make ingrateful man!'

Proof that the GFS 06z always has provoked wild analysis and forecasts.

Usual rules, though in keeping with the time of year, every post that fails to incorporate a Christmas term or theme into its analysis will be removed and the poster banned for 6 weeks.

I've a few minutes now as it's lunch time! To expand on my posts from the last thread, there's a trap with these charts where people see orange colours and high 850s and assume mild conditions. The 0z ECM showed that's not always the case.

The 0z ECM ensembles paint a settled, coldish picture with just the odd day reaching normal or rather mild temperatures. That's for down here at least, further north much depends on how much of a sea track there is.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

FWIW the 15-day control run shows high pressure remaining close to the UK throughout with widespread maxima below 5C for days on end for much of England and Wales; there are a couple of days post-168 where a weakening trough moves through and maxima reach the upper single figures but the 10C isotherm stays away from most areas - it just clips SW England and the Western Isles from time to time.

The outlook at the moment looks quiet, chilly and - for most - snowless. Whether that changes in time for Christmas remains to be seen (ECM-32  control has a snow/rain mix on Christmas Day, with snow in the north).

A point always wirth bearing in mind. Steve M. may not be too keen on surface cold pooling but its a feature of High Pressure in winter.

Agree with that final assessment btw. Dry but rather cold for now

Unfortunately it does look as if the wind will back SE at times, and it will be pretty cold in the SE. Very mild in the NW though, and still not encouraged by the model outputs. Very little evidence imo (contray to what some are saying) of any ridging towards scandanavia, the NH pattern is very poor aswell with the polar vortex shrinking and becoming very strong. 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131204/06/108/h500slp.png

Bartlett high looks like to me, highest heights in SW europe 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131204/06/108/hgt300.png

Jetstream running over the top. The centre of the high at the surface does shift NE for a time, but then back towards spain into FI. 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

A downward trend towards the latter part of the run

Remarkably little scatter throughout the period too.

....and dry

Yes, very little difference between the past few op runs now too even out to 16 days....  Not sure I can remember such consistency for a long time.... Though I do remember back in 2007(?) when someone (can't remember who?) kept predicting that "pressure in Berne will be +1030 at t240" and he was right time and time again...  

Aaah - cherry picking - the curse of this thread

Probably a rather harsh assessment though. It was more his confrontational style that was at issue than his methodology.

Also the tendancy to be intolerant of cold ramping

'Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow!
You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout
Till you have drench'd our steeples, drown'd the cocks!
You sulphurous and thought-executing fires,
Vaunt-couriers to oak-cleaving thunderbolts,
Singe my white head! And thou, all-shaking thunder,
Smite flat the thick rotundity o' the world!
Crack nature's moulds, an germens spill at once,
That make ingrateful man!'

Just back from a morning out - this must be a first in the history of TWO.  King Lear opens a new thread.

All we need now is Good King Wenceslas to complete the seasonal opening.

All I'll say is, if you ask someone who's into meteorology what the weather will be like in 2 days time and they say "I'm sorry, but I can only give a forecast for Berne in 5 days time, and then only in relation to the pressure reading", then I'd say there is something less than useful about their methodology.

The GFS 12z is appearing and there's quite a marked difference even at T+48 for our corner of the world.  SLP is forecast to be 5mb higher than was shown on the 06z for London - 1030 v 1025, with the HP to the SW stronger. The high over Greenland, in contrast, is 5mb weaker.

12z's about to start rolling out..

What's the betting that the 'background signal' for blocking over Scandinavia re-emerges tonight at around 240 ? 

'Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow!
You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout
Till you have drench'd our steeples, drown'd the cocks!
You sulphurous and thought-executing fires,
Vaunt-couriers to oak-cleaving thunderbolts,
Singe my white head! And thou, all-shaking thunder,
Smite flat the thick rotundity o' the world!
Crack nature's moulds, an germens spill at once,
That make ingrateful man!'

Second time - personally, I'll go for the 'deep and crisp and even' option.

SWZ was a regular on this thread during my first couple of winters as a member here, and while his knowledge of weather and all things related to it wasn't in question, it was his style and tone of posting that led to his downfall. The last time I remember him posting here was late 2007/early 2008; I don't know for sure but I presume he was eventually banned from this place.

With the absence of an SSW event, I really cant see any way to get our sceuro high further north to let some undercutting take place

I dont think the model output is going to change much in the next week. Could be a very boring period of weather coming up until the next year. I think Id rather have wind and rain to be honest

A garbage GFS run, the best i can offer is another go at Greenland at 372!!!!

GEM a very promising run though, a real go at a scandi block coming here me thinks, the 0z was very near to bringing some bitter cold and this ridging on the 12 into scandi is a big improvement, this is going to be cracker.

GEM has some ideas which may help...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0

Me and SWZ never really saw eye to eye.

Latest CFS run show's how we could end up with The Beast being Unleashed next week!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&run=0