As the charts don't go beyond Xmas, and even that is deep into FI, I agree about January.  As I mentioned, I do think we can write off any blocking and Arctic air coming this way before the New Year because I don't see the pattern shifing quickly enough, but it's not completely impossible.

 

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Can people stop quoting Joe B and start quoting a more reliable source, like the daily express? 

And people we have SS cooling (by over 10C) not warming. I would have thought SSW in southern lattitudes is useless or even harmfu. 

Anyway on topic:
The only good run in what seems like a while, the 12Z ECM from yesterday has so far not been repeated. So it should be dismissed as a fluke, anomoloy e.c.t. Meanwhile the 12z suite so far is awful, a downgrade if anything. I recon we will be looking to 2014 to see anything cold now. 

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I think that most of lowland Britail will be looking until the New Yera for any cold, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a little bit of wintry weather at times on the higher ground of parts of Scotland should some of the current runs come to pass. I suspect that after this week, temperatures may return closer towards average for this time of year once the more mobile pattern takes hold, at least over more northern areas.

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True, but for snow to not fall over highland scotland is abnormal. The scottish mountains are unusually bare at the moment, and I suppose in any westerly regime you would get frequent snow showers or snow above 700m or so, and falling at times to 200m in any returning polar airmass. 

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Abuut 12z GFS Run.

The Main Debate is still that Growing Trend of Low Pressure Complex NW And N to NE Atlantic, with West and NW Europe getting some Spells of Wet Rainy and Some Strong Winds attached to it weather.

Ridges of High Pressure also affect those in South and SE parts of the UK, and While here it is less cold the Temps in the West and the North will be near average for longer, SE and South average to slightly above- especially at night- frost risk not apparent, but some possible in areas to the West and the North in any Clear Spells under the brief ridging.

W and N Europe esp. The NW side plus West NW And much of N and NE Atlantic Windy with large Low Pressure Complex and Short waves that affect the W and NW Europe and the UK.

In the last 2 days of the Week after this Weekend - it could well turn cold and frosty, with heavy showers some with Thunder hail and hill Snow.

At some numerous occasions next 12 days, it could easily mean heavy rain blustery showers and Severe a Gales during direct UK Low P. centre crossings, even before and during Xmas time.

Though at days 12 to 14 the GFS has the NW and N Atlantic Low's have to face some High pressure that is progged over Central Europe just a fe hundred miles to our NE and SE!.

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We have SS cooling modelled over the pole but SSW over NE Asia. SSW defined as a warming of 25c at any level of the strat anywhere in the winter hemisphere over the period of a week. And that is what GFS is modelling.

It's classed as a minor SSW if it only slows the westrly winds and displaces rather than splits the PV. This is what is modelled, so a minor SSW.

So we actually have SS cooling and SSW modelled contemporaneously.

It is interesting to watch and it will be interesting to see if it is upgraded and what, if any, downstream effects it produces.

 

Meanwhile down here after a frost (below average) it was a nice sunny day (8C high, the average) and it looks like being frosty again tonight (below average). The Continental feed with mild 850s will be replaced in a few days by much milder weather despite lower 850s... I'd take the Continental option any day!

I can appreciate that up north though the current setup leaves much to be desired if you're after crisp mornings and afternoon sunshine...

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With the current set-up obviously failing to build a Scandy high (where's the cold?) and with it clearly not offering a Bartlett high (where's the wind, the rain?), then the correct term for what we have now is, I believe, a Blandy high (as in, where's the weather?):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=120&carte=1021

Mind you, 24 hrs further on and there's a tantalizing hint of high pressure in mid-Atlantic nosing northwards and disrupting the flow:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021

I wonder whether T+168 would look a little less bland.

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But none of this is happening. The warming in Asia is 10C at the absolute most, and it looks significantly less than 5C depending on what time frame you use (30 hpa level). The PV is definately not displaced, on the country there is massive amounts of cooling uniformally across the arctic, even on the pacific side, in fact places like north korea and E russia actually see a fall in temps at the 30hpa level, the only warming that occurs is so far south that it will have no effect or even a hindering effect. Meanwhile in the arctic temps are going to drop from -70 to -85C at the 30hpa level which will encourage a small strong PV as all the models are currently showing. 

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Echos of yesterdays 12Z run on the ECM today, although too early to say. Jet stream is going south, thats at least one positive comment. Now to look north for those HPs shown on yesterdays run. 

Nevermind clearly not happening.

Someone start a moaning thread..

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Train your eye roughly over central Siberia/ Mongolia at 10 hPa, it's way more than 10c warming. More like 20. At least.

Where do you see 30hPa? I only access 10 on meteociel.

@Johnm

You'll get different layers of the strat on instant weather maps - temperature and geopotential heights.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php 

30hpa is more important than 10hpa I think. What happens at 10hpa is supposed to propagate down to 30hpa anyway. But even at 10hpa the absolute most I can find is 8C temp rise from 192 to 384, and thats in china, actually south of the UK by a significant margin! Over the whole of the arctic during that timeframe temps either remain steady or fall, going below average by the end of the run. I cannot see the PV being displaced at all. To me this is a strat cooling event, not a warming. 

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You guys are at cross purposes as the two different levels show different things. Anyway, it is immaterial at the moment as nothing special showing up just now.

http://i.imgur.com/aO8A3jZ.gif 

http://i.imgur.com/1h9WSGM.gif 

Good evening folks. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday December 10th 2013.

All models show a Southerly flow over the UK which is very slack across the South with clearer skies allowing a colder night tonight across the South and SE with mist and fog forming in places later tonight and becoming dense in places and slow to clear tomorrow. However, in the days that follow the weatherbecomes more breezy as troughs push in from the West by Friday with some rain at times. Then over the weekend a NW/SE split looks likely with mild weather for all. The North and West will be at risk of some rain at times in a brisk and locally strong SW wind. In The SE though rather cloudy weather will deliver just small amounts of drizzly rain at times if any.

GFS then shows a sustained period of SW winds and changeable weather with rain at times with some slightly colder and brighter conditions before SW winds return mild and wet weather in association with the next depression.

UKMO shows a trough crossing East on Monday with rain spreading East across the UK through the day followed by drier and brighter or clearer conditions in the West later.

GEM also shows a brisk SW winds with a mix of cloudy and damp conditions with rain at times, heaviest in the NW with drier and slightly brighter conditions where the SE sees the most prolonged drier periods with mild conditions prevailing for all.

NAVGEM keeps the SE largely dry and bright while places to the NW sees much stronger winds and rain at times in overall mild conditions.

ECM shows more unsettled conditions for all of the UK next week with most places seeing some rain at times with strong winds for some. The North would see the most rain though many Southern areas will not see a great deal with some drier spells at times. Temperatures are shwn to remain close to average at worst over the period.

The GFS Ensembles show little or no sign of anything remarkably cold in the upcoming period covered by the runs which in the case of GFS takes us over Christmas. Instead uppers look like returning towards average values as the more mobile and unsettled weather takes hold.

The Jet Stream currently to the NW of Britain continues it's trend to shuffle SE to lies SW to NE across the UK as next week progresses.

In Summary there is little change in the overall patterns tonight. As a result there is little to say that hasn't been said already which in a nutshell means the trend towards unsettled and reasonably mild weather continues with little sign of any wintry weather this side of Christmas.

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My reaction to the 12Z suite 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYqjcHYTQgQ

I suppose the GFS enlarges the PV towards the end of the run, but nothiing consistant at all. Maybe in a week something might appear on the horizion. Long range models did suggest blocking far more likely in jan than dec. 

 

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New thread on the way..........

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