Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 15th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show yesterday's storm now well away to the NE with a weak ridge crossing the UK tomorrow giving a dry night and day tomorrow with some welcome sunshine and light winds. Later tomorrow the weather deteriorates again as cloud and rain attached to a weaker Low pressure than of late spreads in from the West to give a cloudy and damp day in the West on Monday before the weather improves again on Tuesday and much of Wednesday as a weak ridge crosses from the West.
GFS then shows a more vigorous Low pressure system crossing Southern Britain soon after midweek with wind and rain for all followed by a changeable remainder of the run with rain at times in winds from a mostly SW direction giving generally milder conditions later.
UKMO looks menacing at the end of it's output tonight with a small but vigorous Low crossing Northern Britain with gales and heavy rain sweeping East across Britain with temperatures close to average before colder and showery weather follows as the Low pressure moves out into the North Sea.
GEM shows a very windy and sometimes very wet period as winds between South and West carry spells of rain and showers across all areas through the latter period of the run.
NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times in temperatures close to average overall.
ECM tonight is also a little disturbing as after a brief respite next week we appear to be falling down the path of a return to deeply unsettled, windy and wet weather across all areas before the end of next weekend.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts show little change from this morning's with Low pressure in control of the UK weather with SW winds and spells of rain and showers, probably heaviest towards the West of the UK in temperatures largely close to average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The GFS Ensembles tonight show an unsettled period maintained throughout tonight's output. The temperatures will remain close to average for many but it could become rather mild in the South for a day or two while throughout there will be rain at times almost everywhere.
http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/
The Jet Stream Forecast indicates the flow will remain fairly consistent within it's current location while strengthening somewhat again after a lull next week.
In Summary there appears to be growing trends shown between the outputs of the UK slipping back into a very unsettled and windy period with rain and strong winds featuring heavily again after a brief period of less unsettled conditions. With a fairly strong jet flow re-emerging again later next week the catalyst is their for some powerful depressions to affect the UK once more with the North and West and probably including the SW too for some more disruptive rainfall and severe gales.
Originally Posted by: GIBBY