Maybe all these earthquakes has tilted the earth on its axis by a fraction of a degree and it's making a difference!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png

At the high end though

Wouldn't take anawful lot would it!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014032218/gfs-0-288.png?18

Slightly OT but in a way you are right imo.  The weather imo moves in patterns, which dont quite match the time of year, so they become long term cycles, which have different effects depending on what time of year they hit.  This will only become clear many years down the line, but even then, there will be differences due to human "impacts"

 LLTNP 105m asl 

The full Monty retrogression from ECM today. Proper cold air has a much better chance of reaching us

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032300/ECM0-240.GIF?23-12

wouldn't that be bad luck Jacko

If this had happened two months ago

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014032300/UW144-21.GIF?23-06

Do you think this is the result of the warming that we saw in Feb?

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Rather cloudy on Tuesday with rain in places. Mostly dry thereafter with a few showers, mainly in the east of the UK. Feeling cold in brisk winds across eastern Britain.

Won't feel mild though

Its not looking to warm this week is it.

Yep - a naff week overall in terms of temperatures, although the weekend could save things if troughing situates more to the SW and we get a bit of a SE flow.

ECM's op run is digging the jet south a fair bit more than GFS, with dramatic consequences - flick through +192, +216 and +240 hours and you see deeply cold air flooding down the eastern flank of Greenland towards the UK, while at the same time, exceptionally warm air is dragged up across the Med. from Africa.

Were that to verify, the meeting point of the two airmasses would see some interesting conditions... 

We do look to be spending our days close to or on the borderline between warm and cool conditions, with showers and more organised areas of rain coming and going.

The 00z GFS op is generally more unsettled than the other operational runs from the weekend onward, and the 06z... well, that seems to get a bit carried away with the Atlantic energy IMO. GEM is not nearly as unsettled. UKMO... well, that doesn't give any clear signal as to which way it would go beyond day 6, to be honest.

...so really we can't be at all sure which side of the line we'll be at any given time beyond the next 5 days.

It's a very interesting pattern developing, but one that could quite easily deliver unsavoury conditions to our shores.

^^^^^^^^^^ neither do I ^^^^^^

Meanwhile ECM 12z is trying very hard to offer an alternative solution!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014032312/ECM0-240.GIF?23-0

The models seem to be drifting together, with the combined theme being one of a trough between the UK and the Azores with blocking to the north of that.

Due to the trough positioning, there is a net southerly/near southerly flow across much of NW Europe, bringing warmth up towards the UK.

Meanwhile, the blocking high across Greenland drives Arctic air southward, towards the UK...

There is serious scope for the UK to be simultaneously affected by both airmasses, which the ECM 12z op run shows very nicely - in fact it's remarkably consistent with previous runs in that respect. GFS is showing similar things now... in fact, GFS has shifted towards ECM far more than ECM has come the other way.

With light winds and a continental drift originating somewhere in Africa, the ECM day 10 chart could deliver 20*C or more in parts of the south, provided there was enough dry air in the circulation to prevent excessive cloud build-up, or at least a high enough cap in the atmosphere to allow convection to stand tall rather than spread out.

At the same time, NE Scotland could see a few snow showers, though perhaps not to low levels given the weakness of the flow.

This sure is fascinating stuff - I will have to fight to not let it distract me from my revision too much!

Unfortunately, the natural progression from the above situation is towards troughing closer to the UK or over us. Retrogression of the mean trough is possible, but we would be getting very lucky indeed if we saw that!

Very interesting looking ECM.

What month is it?

Could that mean some beefy? 

If the two airmasses interacted in the right way, yes, if cold air aloft could combine with some moisture convergence at thes surface.

That's easier said than done, though. The air could be too stable or not unstable to a great enough height - it depends on whether there is much influence from a ridge of high pressure, and what mechanisms mix the two airmasses... yeah, it's complicated!

No wonder, really,  that is often comes down to short range forecasts attempting to get the detail but often being a little wide of the mark.

ECM continues to show the potential for the collision of airmasses

Will feel more chilly this week in the South east with the easterly wind than perhaps the whole of winter

For those still sufferring from MAD (Model Adjustment Disorder), have a look at Pert #9 from GEFS 00Z run

A blast of -10 into the SE next week.

Quick before it dissapears!

Indeed.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

A real continental US style gradient there. One of the 'best' charts of the 'winter' LOL