I think people forget we are not actually in Winter yet and winter lasts 3 months and apart from rare occasions like 2010 to get widespread cold and snow Pre-Christmas is very rare for our small Island. ( count the number of White Christmases )

People need to stop worrying, it's because of last year that the panic and the search for cold is driving some people insane so far this AUTUMN.

How many times have we seen charts show a lot of snow potential only for it to fail at t72 etc. The more you search and want something the less likely it is to get it, we could all be very surprised this Winter within a short space of time, I think something will pop up when we don't expect it and then it's game on. ....Look how America changes so quickly, high temps, freezing temps and loads of snow then due to be going back to average/high temps.

If by the middle of Jan things still look on the above average side then may be that's the time to start to worry or potentially rule out another winter cold lovers.

Anyone that rules out Winter at this stage is brave but they do it mainly because there chances of being correct will always be greater for our small island.

It's funny because we could get two days of seeing snowfall and a week of cold and it would be classed as a great winter by some.

3 in the last 10 years IMBY 

You're right, though, we're still in autumn. However, as I've said before, snow & cold in the lead up to Xmas is nirvana for me.

Trouble with this upcoming winter is that there's so much hope & expectation. I reckon this comes from the 09/10 & 10/11 winters both having good, prolonged cold/snowy periods, whilst 12/13 also saw many have spells of cold & snow (albeit each much more short-lived). It raises expectations, reminds people that winter is still possible! I also think some people were 'snowed out' after the early winter 2010 record-breaking cold outbreak, but now have some of that hunger back - especially as the 2013/14 winter was a depressing mild washout.

And then we have the guarded excitement of the OPI thing (more than balanced out on the negative side IMO by most professional (ie, not charlatan) weather organisations shying away from a cold winter). And, of course, we've all be casting an envious eye toward part of the US who've have wondrous levels of snow this week.

So, jittery excitement levels are up - and seeing a possible early taste of cooler, more 'seasonal' conditions in the charts the other day will have raised anticipation, only for any charts showing this potential to soon back away and show us more mild, wet crap in the reliable timeframe.

I'm still hoping that from mid-Dec we get a cold & snowy period to take us into 2015. Unfortunately, current output is showing no signs of even a twinkle in the Met Gods' eye for a switch to more wintry weather.

Wouldn't a lovely Christmas Present be that the charts around the festive season start to show something for Mid Jan..slap bang in the middle of Winter 

Just seen what date it is today.....21st

Only One Month till The Winter Solstice ....and the days start getting longer 

Indeed, it is still autumn.... I remember around Christmas/New Year 2012/13 the charts were looking particularly bad with SW dominating the entire model runs (after the tease we'd had earlier in December that year) for day after day..... then by mid-January I had 5" of lying snow, a run of ice days and snowcover for 10 days - job done.  Despite all the bluster, I think all most 'coldies' are looking is a proper wintry spell iin their back yard - a fortnight of snow and freezing temperatures at some point over the next 3-4 months and most people would be happy....  If one's happiness is dependent on a 3 month freeze you really should build a cabin at the top of the Cairngorms or emigrate. 

What I'd really like to see is a deep cold spell a la 87 or 91 that gives all of us some wintry weather, even those on Cornish coasts, as the understandable frustration of those in ill-favoured locations puts a dampener on those of us lucky people who live in more favoured spots.  In fact (and I know weather doesn't work like this) we're "due" one.

Just to outline what the Cohen theory that I've been mentioning here and there of late predicts, here are some informative Tweets by a bloke called Eric Webb:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/535753762603036673

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/535759982466445312

To summarise, we're very much on track as far as the theory goes, and so following a period of stronger polar vortex action, we can expect - from this theory - a dramatic transition to a heavily blocked regime with a positive AO and NAO, and low pressure tracking initially right through the UK in December, then increasingly far south through January and February.

A sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) appears to most likely in late December or early January, so the most dramatic conditions may be reserved for the second half of the winter.

Note that, even if the theory pans out, this does not guarantee a cold winter or even lengthy cold spell in the UK, though it certainly raises the odds. Saying that it will lead to such things is the misinterpretation that many media examples just love to make.

It sure looks like this winter will be a very good test of Cohen's theory, which could have significant implications for long range forecast attempts in future years.

What puzzles me about all this strat talk is whether it overrides all other forcing mechanisms such as SSTs? A correlation between North Atlantic SSTs and the pressure patterns during the winter months has been established. Are we now saying that's all junk? If so then doesn't the same logic about the strat follow? In a few years time the next theory comes along causing the current strat one to become junk.

Alternatively, they're all part of a very complex jigsaw, and looking at one or two pieces in isolation is never going to allow anyone to work out the general synoptics for a coming season.

probably this. Working out which bits of the jigsaw need to be weighted more heavily is possibly the trick. overall, is winter looks to be landing on the blocked side with the Siberian high the main player. whether the little old uk is too far west will be the question.