Perhaps the word seasonal should be used around average at least we have had some frost down here thus far nothing like it was last year

But as ive said before we do live in a temperate climate with mainly a westerly wind to expect snow and ice all the time aint going to happen.

Last winter had a mean UK temperature of +5.2°C which is +1.5°C above the average in what was a very mild winter period. Rainfall totals were equally impressive in terms of being significantly above average with extensive flooding across parts of England and Wales. The winter period was dominating by a relentless amount of North Atlantic low pressures and storm systems that brought exceptionally wet and windy conditions to many areas over many weeks as as we all know

It's nothing like that.

Woah there, drifting way off topic aren't we?

I've let the posts stand but done some rearranging so that they don't take up so much space, for the sake of those using the mobile site.

A good point was raised though - that so far this December doesn't qualify as mild.

Some of today's model output would start to take it that way of course, but even then there's no reason to believe that January would continue along the same tracks. In fact nearly all winters feature a marked pattern shift at some point, with last winter highly unusual in that regard.

Hopefully we can now close the door on such discussion in this thread 

I seem to remember that 10-14 days or so back, there were a sequence of runs from the models that went for a fairly flat pattern developing with the Azores High ridging towards the Med, but towards the end of last week some more amplified runs began to show up from the likes of the GFS and ECM. FWIW I don't think we should place too much faith in anything shown for after the end of next week right now.

Signs of a change - Low pressure slipping southwards towards Iberia and Bay of Biscay off to Spain/Portugal as High pressure builds over Scandinavia and Eastern Europe during the first week of Jan 2015?

Atlantic low is looking unhappy - yawning! (above).

no where in my post did I state that, so that's an odd comment, I was seeking some balance to Andy W quoting cold Winters that followed mild Decembers, whereas there are many more mild winters that follow mild Decembers.  My post was not an attempt at pattern matching, neither was I referring to this December as we are 1/3 of the way through.  As you have brought up this month, I will offer my opinion on that:  In my view the statistics at the end if this month will show the north of England and Scotland will be slightly below the 1981-2010 average and it will be above average in the south of England.

Why are some people obsessed with whether one person or another has mentioned the word mild? I don't see anyone else whinging that others have mentioned the word cold. Get over yourselves. Bottom line is we are all looking for snow potential, and for most of us it's currently looking crap. Roll on the pattern change. 

Looks like the 12z GFS handled last night's snow potential better than the GFSP despite the higher resolution (both model and output datasets) of the latter. Resolution isn't everything and I think this illustrates a potential heffalump trap the Met Office PR people are setting up for themselves.

PS: The GFSP0z didn't run due to upstream problems. 6z is expected this morning.

Some dreadful charts on GFS and ECM leading up to Christmas which if verified would be very mild indeed, who invited Uncle Barty to the Christmas party!

I think also that the AH ridging into Europe route to cold is extremely dangerous and we are more likely to be left with a New Year long fetch south westerly than easterly.

Much safer would be next weekends northwesterly to become a northerly followed by a mid Atlantic ridge, not likely I admit but the AH ringing strongly east will be a disaster IMO.

Still all FI so time for it to change but the signs are not good as we approach the festive season.

Andy

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY DECEMBER 12TH 2014.

NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY DECEMBER 13TH 20:00

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Fronts will clear SE across the UK today followed by a ridge of High pressure tonight and tomorrow.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Temperatures generally close to or a little above average but a few colder periods over the North when showers could turn wintry.

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show signs of maintaining a West to East flow in the vicinity of the UK over the next few weeks. However, the speed of the flow is looking like weakening with time while maintaining it's positioning.

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows another week or so of mobile Atlantic Westerlies across the UK with rain or showers at times with snow on Northern hills at times. Then a change towards higher pressure moves up across the UK from the SW in week 2 with frost and fog and anticyclonic type weather developing for a time. Towards the end of the run the high recedes SE and mahes for slack Southerly winds across the UK with a lot of dry, rather cloudy and benign conditions with less in the way of frost and fog by night and the return of some rain at times across the North and West.

THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available at time of issue.

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run today maintains a basically mobile Westerly flow across the UK over the period. There will be spells of milder and rainier conditions alternating with short colder periods with showers especially across the North. In the quieter periods frost at night may occur but the end of the run ends with the UK weather governed by a large High pressure zone down to the SW.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles are indicative that Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW will continue to be dominant through much of the period but the trend towards a weaker Jet profile and weaker pressure gradients over the UK opens the door for other solutions to be shown within this long lasting pattern.

UKMO UKMO today shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK towards the middle of next week with deep Low pressure to the North. With temperatures close to average it will feel chilly in the wind and all areas will see further spells of rain and showers at times with a little snow on the higher Northern hills.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a period of variable weather alternating between sunshine and showers and cloudier periods with more prolonged rainfall and blustery winds as each succession of troughs pass over in generally close to average temperatures.

GEM GEM shows little change in conditions to that we have experienced over recent days with spells of rain alternating with colder NW winds with showers, wintry in the North. Later in the run High pressure to the SW inches in towards Iberia and Biscay bringing more westerly winds with rain at times and less colder interventions away from the far North.

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a flattening of the pattern across the UK as the alternating spells of rain with colder showery conditions is replaced by milder Westerly winds with rain at times more towards the North and West looking likely one week from now.

ECM ECM this morning shows a mobile Westerly type pattern maintained through it's duration this morning with all of the UK weather through the period generated over the Atlantic. As of late there will be spells of rain alternating with colder and windy periods with showers, wintry in the North. High pressure does show signs of becoming somewhat more influential in the South later by a reduction in the amounts of rainfall and in the North by bringing strong but milder Westerly winds for longer periods than currently.

ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's still reflect a distorted picture of Low pressure to the North and High pressure ever closer to the South of the UK. However, a variety of options are shown in indicidual members that show something more akin to a Northerly component to the weather as a trough resides to the East with higher pressure over the Atlantic but as it stands it's far from being a given evolution.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There still appears to be little shift away from a Westerly profile of weather across the UK with further spells of rain and wintry showers in the North before a slow shift towards a flattern and somewhat milder period is shown in the second half of the period..

MY THOUGHTS The models seem slow to respond to any upwind signals of a change of pattern towards the end of the year and while we wait for that to filter through we continue to look at charts which resemble the pattern we have seen now for several weeks. High pressure remains stubbornly locked down to the SW of the UK, near the Azores and with deep Low pressure areas continuing to move East to the North of the UK carrying spells of wind and rain followed by showers. Over recent runs the trend towards milder air taking the upper hand next week has receded somewhat and it now looks like further colder air will filter down across northern Britain at times maintaining the occasionally wintry flavour of weather up there. Wintriness is unlikely across the South with average temperatures likely as a result. Then as we move towards Christmas it looks distinctly a green one for many as High pressure is shown to track ever closer to SW Europe bringing a flatter westerly flow across the UK with rain at times gradually becoming most prolific towards the North and West while temperatures recover to average or a fraction above. There are signs though that the Jet stream and Low pressure profile around the Iceland and Greenland area will become less pronounced given tome and this maybe the first signs of a pattern shift after Christmas. We must be mindful though we are talking grains of sand in a desert and there is a wealth of weather to get through as well as all the usual if's and but's before something more akin to what folks want to see become more likely but for the moment we must continue to endure a substantial period of mobile Atlantic Westerly driven weather with all the natural variability that can provide.

also thanks Gibby for your forecast, i read them every day,

As ever, an excellent summary of the current situation from Gibby. The GFS 06z continues the theme of the Azores High migrating closer to our shores in FI with the jet noticibly weakenening and LP systems to our North losing intensity through time.

No evidence yet however of blocking to our North/North East, but it is interesting to note in the far reaches of the 6z that Scandi becomes cold. It will be fascinating to observe the FI trends in the GFS model over the next few days to see if it begins to pick up on the signals for HLB coming from other sources. 

Amongst the doom and gloom at least the pattern change is still on and appears to be gaining momentum. 

Ian Ferguson Netweather. 

Noteworthy (as some others here have also spotted through different output) are the increasing EC and MOGREPS members offering ridged solutions towards latter stages of 10-15d trend period, which, in words of UKMO Dep. Chief, "...may be the first signs of a general change of type across northern Europe, with a slow-down in the predominantly W/WNW’ly jet – this in response to some signs from global teleconnectors of a move toward a negative NAO." There's no sign of meaningful change/cold pre-Christmas, but the period afterwards *might* offer broadscale change.

Yes little sign of any kind northern blocking or proper cold on any model output. That Azores high is getting on my nerves now.

The Met Office seem to be thinking a pattern change to a less progressive pattern may arrive later in the month. I remember this post by Ian Fergusson on 3rd December last year:

Well that went well! Moral of the story is not even the best with the best data really know what's going to happen at such range. So even if its the Met Office take any predictions at that range a few spoonfuls of salt.

Or as GIBBY says "A few grains of sand".....

Hi all

Here's today's video update;

Any Sign Of Cold With JMA Friday?

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looking at the coming month and beyond with the JMA and CFS.

Cheers Gav.
Might have to put wheels on the old sleigh?.

Yep. That's the danger of reading these comments with any seriousness IMO

It may be better these 'enlightenments' on the so called MetO extended written paragraph are kept to with the 7-10 day timeframe. Either that or removed altogether.

WM..........I'm finding your continual Ian Fergusson "bashing" very tiresome.

Please find something more constructive to add to these discussions.

Seems our Liam Dutton is also thinking in the same lines as me when it comes to the forecast for Christmas: https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/543421279563681792

Of course, at this point, it must be taken with a pinch of salt but I would bank this in any case.

Sorry for any confusion(?!)… 

I was strictly referring to/ discussing the MetO extended outlook.