Perhaps worthy of a dedicated thread to keep it out of the MO thread where it might get lost in the discussion.

The consensus is firming-up on another deep low to form in the steep thermal gradient currently in the E Atlantic and ride the strong jetstream to impact the UK around the 15th Jan, now within the +144 timeframe so coming into UKMO range as well as the other usual culprits.

Focussing on the various solutions on track and depth for now is the best we can do, as obviously this will affect the areas involved and the severity of effects (snapshots at +144 from 00Z and 06Z runs today):
GFS old: Takes a still deepening 950mb low along the Central Belt.
GFSP: Has a 945mb low just scraping N Scotland and still deepening, as GFSP seems to do
ECM: Low passes N of Scotland and not as tight although watch out for daughters swinging down to it's South
UKMO: At +120 the low is forming in the Atlantic so track unknown but it's there
GEM: Similar to GFS old but low is starting to fill out as it crosses

So remarkable consensus across the board for a storm of some description, just how severe remains to be seen.

Without making light of the current Scottish system which is quite a compact but very lively storm containing hurricane-force wind all interacting with a exceptionally powerful jet stream, this one does look like being a bigger and fatter version containing gales/severe gales while trying to make good use of a less intense southern-tracking jet stream all set to affect the more populated part of the UK.

Indeed, there's still lot of fine tuning at this point, but it is true that GFSP did pick up on it a couple of days ago then relaxed the idea but now has decided to go ahead with it, with the other models coming to the same idea.

I've only just put down my worry beads. It won't be long before I start posting in the Winter Whinging thread as my love/hate relationship with the weather continues, but on the whole I still think this winter so far is an improvement on last year.

Thanks Neil should be intresting  t120 fax

Yes.

This is gaining momentum. A potentially ferocious storm is looming.

Gusts progged to be in the 140-150 Km/hr bracket across the Irish Sea, 90-100Km/hr along the South Coast and no doubt snowy in the calmer areas of northern Scotland.

What is most alarming is the strength of the inland gusts across England, Wales and Ireland with 60-70mph gusts widespread.

Whats the betting it will edge a little n/west Steve.

And again, looking like a night time event at this point. Happens every time, we ALWAYS seem to have the worst winds at night time when it appears to be more scary in the dark with lights blinking and hearing sounds but can't see where it's coming from.

Seems that way Ian. Having said that in winter when its dark for 16 hours a day, there's always a good chance !

On 'our meteostar' scale I noticed Lydd reporting 43-45mph SSW early on Thursday.

Relatively speaking St Judes was 38mph and Xmas Eve 2013 was 43mph on that same scale.

Something to watch.

It certainly looks nasty further south does that, i was planning a trip south to Yorkshire that day - was being the operative word!

Some monsters in the GEFS ensembles. Storm of a century this

And

If the likes of this come off - then how would it compare with January 1990 - The Burns Day storm.

Burns charts Gav for compare we dont want anything like that over such a wide area many people sadly died

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burns%27_Day_storm

it caused widespread damage and hurricane-force winds over a wide area. The storm was responsible for 97 deaths (according to the Met Office), although figures have ranged from 89 to over 100

The storm began as a cold front over the Northern Atlantic Ocean on 23 January. By the 24th, it had a minimum central pressure of 992 mbar. It made landfall on the morning of the 25th over Ireland, where 17 died, including 8 on a bus which was struck by a falling tree. It then tracked over to Ayrshire in Scotland. The lowest pressure of 949 mbar was recorded near Edinburgh around 16:00. After hitting the United Kingdom, the storm tracked rapidly east towards Denmark, causing major damage and 30 deaths in theNetherlands and Belgium.[1]

The strongest sustained winds recorded were between 70 and 75 mph (110–120 km/h), comparable to a weak Category 1 hurricane. Strong gusts of up to 104 mph (170 km/h;) were reported, and it was these which caused the most extensive damage.

Well it's still there and the 12Z GFSP seems intent on destroying Scotland with a 933mb low set to cross N Scotland with a swathe of damaging winds through the lowlands and far N England. The GFS old looks a more open affair with the greater risk from pendulums swinging around the main vortex.
As the GFSP takes over from current GFS on the 14th, perhaps we should assume the worse case scenario?

If I am right then it is that innocuous-looking 975mb low south of Iceland that is set to bomb?

No, it's the one just off the N.American seaboard at 997mbs....

God forbid. We'll all need new pants if that comes off. Terrible thought. ;-(

Keep tabs on this one chaps. We need to.

Cheers - thanks for all that info. I wasn't living in this country when that happened. That's why I asked about it.  I heard about it as you can imagine. Interesting to see all the synoptics of it.

Is it me or the "basic" version of the ECM is rather useless when it comes to this kind of thing? Because this is likely to be a night time event, it doesn't even show up in the 24 hours gap between 1 pm on the 14th and 1 pm on the 15th. Have to wait for the 0z run to see what it comes up with.

And NAVGEM shows it being "born" while over the South East - but generally I'm not really a big fan of this particular model.

It's almost a week ahead - so we all need to keep it in perspective.

If that's any consolation.

A light comedy break to soften the blow . . . as so to speak.

Nice one, Ian.

Just back from the shops and it feels like that.