Its going to be a wet one  for London within a couple of days. First from a cold front rushing through on Monday night.The second from Thursdays storm.

Hope so.

I love a good gale!

Roofers will be rubbing their hands

I hate strong winds , especially in the dark, you can hear all the noises but have no idea what the damage is

Quite. My roof is without most of its ridge tiles after Friday night!... no way I can get anything done before Wed night, so just hoping it doesn't get any worse. At least the roofing felt seems to be doing its job and keeping the rain out of the loft.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015011106/gfsnh-0-84.png?6

incoming ...............gulp!

At this stage it looks  a tad further North but no doubt all subject to change

EDIT further South .........same applies though..............tomorrow it will be in the IOW ( JFF )

Certainly some very strong winds if it maintains what's currently being indicated as it's likely track/intensity. 

Whilst the nuances ebb and flow the basic set-up is one of a very windy spell Weds evening through to late Thursday for some areas, especially it seems inland Wales and the Midlands and exposed SW coastal areas. Track and intensity continues to vary model to model but as I said yesterday it'll be in E4 range on Monday so no doubt more detail and associated warnings will be released then.
The worst case scenarios continue to look worrying but they always do!

is it me the latest models are now saying the storm could be more south a bit like the saint jude track last year but a lot stronger
http://www.meteociel...6&carte=&mode=0

The ECM gusts chart from the 0z run is very nasty - a significant boost in speeds over England and Wales (and Ireland, for that matter).

I can't post the charts as they're subject to quite draconian copyright and they're not publically available. However, there's nothing stopping me from drawing my own version! This is the 10M wind gust chart for midnight on Thursday, in knots.

I have just read it as being described as a "possibly once in every 10-15 years" event. That sound serious - given we have had some belters last Autumn and into winter (including St Judes).
  While Rachel does look like being a big lass, I am expecting mean wind speeds of around 45 mph for a few hours on Thursday morning with up to 80 mph gusts - don't we get to have that kind of thing once or twice most winters? To put it in perspective and for comparison purposes, the St Burns Day storm of Jan '90 saw to 60 mph sustained with up to 100 mph gust across a large area of the UK.

it happens every year, as soon as stormy looking storm sets eyes on these here shores, this forum fills with the usual draconian none sense from the usual suspects. The tabloids print the usual crap.. "Storm of the xxx" or "worst storm in xxx" etc. Recent years even the mainstream media has been getting in on the hype. 

It drives me up the wall.

I might be misinterpreting your meaning, but are you suggesting this thread is 'filling up' with OTT comments and analysis?
I've seen it in other forums and facebook pages - if I could borrow your phrase 'from the usual suspects' - but this thread has been largely level and sensible with the analysis and projections.

Show me an example of 'draconian nonsense' and I'll be happy to consider it. Note I am not a moderator and do not make the rules so you can say what you like but it would be useful to limit the observations in this thread to those that people would find useful in the circumstances

In this thread and model output there have been - I'm on a phone so I can't go copy & paste examples. Just go back an read for yourself. The first 2 pages of this thread has a number of them. :-)

The first 2 pages of this thread are populated in the main with observations and comments on the model output being shown at the time, with links to illustrate the opinion. I can't see much in the way of 'nonsense' so I'm going to have to disagree with you.
Maybe if you have a particular issue with the posts you should start a thread for 'sensationalist and unjustified opinion about the stormy weather this week' and see how it goes?

Anyway, back to the purpose of this discussion:
The 12Z GFSold so far has the low a bit further North but deeper so the wind field on it's southern and SW flank is more extensive but just as keen. GFSP looks as close as it has been so far to it's cousin GFSold - 945mb to 950mb entering far N England moving ENE and slowing as it exits into the N Sea. Starting to get nearer a concensus now on path and depth.

They are rightly being cautions until the details of the system are firmed up.

Malcolm
Wakefield & Gothenburg, SWE

It will no doubt be updated

This version of events  in 3 and a half days from GME  looks nasty for south coasters.  Watch out IDJ.  I note the jet is overhead at the same time.  risk of a "stingjet".

Who decided to call it Rachel

Shannon would've been better!

What about Shaznay; all dark and tempestuous