Very good advice IMO.

We shall see later on where the ECM 12Z sits with the ensembles. If there is any support for it among those, then I'll be more concerned.

You must live in the right side of Witney Dean

Snow for Cornwall thinking that would be very close call

Darren , any idea why some of the OPs recently have always been on the milder side???

On first inspection the GEM looks like a very cold chart: Faroes/Iceland High, Biscay low:

Then check the 850s, especially for the south:

These charts illustrate the problem: Even if we get the pressure distribution right, there is a lack of very cold air to tap into.

Whatever the outcome, it is preferable to windy zonality, at least for a while.

I didn't fall out the Grumpy tree :p 

No comment on the actual output showing several days of well below average temperatures? In fact I would say even at the day 9-10 time point on the ECM 12z run it would still be pretty chilly for some.

The Scottish BBC forecast went for a low of -12°C inland on Sunday night. Over before it began Let's see what happens when it does begin shall we? (And that is ignoring the foor plus of snow in parts of the Highlands in recent days, and no I am not referring to the mountains).

There is much potential in the upcoming week or so. As the Ying goes get the cold in first and the snow will (hopefully!) follow. Expect mild outliers, drier runs, wetter runs and no doubt a breakdown in coming days (and that is just Beast )

Some frontal analysis for Tuesday/Wednesday's snow event. Keep in mind I may not have the positions exactly right, Euro lows are extremely difficult to draw fronts on compared to atlantic lows, though I think I am getting better.

On tuesday two occluded fronts sit across the UK, the northern one is from the original parent and divides the polar maritime fro the polar continental air mass, the real cold air lies behind this front. The 2nd frontal system belongs to a secondary low. Both fronts will give precipitation, but the one in the south is probably the more active, but less likely to have  snow on it, though given the light winds I suspect it will be snow rather than rain on the leading edge. 

By wednesday both fronts sink south, the midlands could actually get two belts of snow that will merge into intermittent perhaps moderately heavy snowfall at times, across the south the frontal system will linger and perhaps give some more snowfall. A weakening warm front also moves in from the East which will kill off any showers and introduce some cloud to northern areas.

As has been said it's pointless taking each/any OP run as gospel in a set up like this.

Much better to use the ens for any signs of a breakdown, and stick to the short term models Euro4-Nmm and the fax chart's 

there will be much chopping and changing after 2-3 days in a blocking/slider scenario.

A gentle reminder of my post yesterday evening... which is going just as I and many others knew it would, lol!

The ensembles are showing at least 7-8 days of below average temperatures for the UK and so the foundations are in place for the potential for snow. Some will see cold rain, while some will see decent snow. Far too early to worry about ppn, as stated numerous times but surely this set-up is better for you than the Atlantic train?

Worth noting that Scandi Highs can be stubborn to shift. As Darren used to say, many more runs needed.

It's not the despair, Mike. I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand.

Thought I would drag this out of retirement to cheer the place up. I can't believe it was 8 years ago!

interesting as this is, a quick browse through the ensembles at t+96 shows a wide breadth of Synoptics with radically different precipitation potential...  Albeit with similar upper temps at that point.  The danger is that we have too much info and are prone to overanalysis which, even if we end up get decent snow events, causes unnecessary angst along the way as options evolve

I don't want to speak for Darren, but he mentioned earlier how the ensembles around New Year were beginning to pick up on a change to colder weather just after mid-January at a time when many operational runs were looking pretty poor for coldies, hence all the "winter is over" type posts there were at the time.

Who knows, the GFS 18z "pub run" may deliver us some eye candy tonight.

ECM has done a good job of giving the far south some hope for the slider low to play ball... while also making it clear just how wide the spread of possible outcomes must be, and how messy the situation might become - the day 5 chart has the low heights strung out NW-SE in a complex, ill-defined sprawl.

Then comes the issue of the U.S. low suddenly being a lot more progressive days 4-6 on the ECM and GFS 12z op runs when compared to the 00z efforts. The jet just seems to be considerably stronger for whatever reason - also evident in the fact that the LP is more intense than had looked to be the case. Perhaps this potential was picked up by the Met Office this morning, as Fergie suddenly started mentioning a return to nearer average temperatures toward the end of the coming 15 day period.

Those seeking a more prolonged cold spell have to hope that this is an erroneous signal, with the op runs are either overcooking the jet, underestimating the resilience of the higher heights to our north, or both.

It's good that UKMO keeps that trough further south than ECM and GFS and retains more in the way of high pressure to our north for day 6. So does JMA... which turns out very decent.

UKMO and JMA are the only two op runs to show a lot of similarities this evening - the rest are all markedly different from one another. GFS was in that pack until the 12z and ECM was closer than it is now.

To top off all the uncertainty, it seems we can't be at all sure how close an area of LP will be to our south in three days time, which looks capable of bringing about a troublesome convergence of air masses across the far south as the cold northerly meets a less cold southerly. While ECM and UKMO seem keen, GFS and JMA are having none of it... at three days range! 

This is what is nagging me. The set up at first glance looks perfect for a cold snap in my area.

However its just not cold enough to to the East.

Its frustrating because these set ups don't occur very often. It seems like a waste.

Who knows maybe it will work out ok on the day.

Would take that LP t72 postion James 528 just about clear with some unstable air mass some good fax on offer

So things are all still looking colder.As they have for some time (and ignoring that it's been pretty cold lately for some anyway!).

Longer term who knows - given it's a complex pattern I'll not be paying too much attention to any individual op runs, cold or mild.

The ens have an interesting amount of differences fairly early on, albeit in the reliable frame all these are variations on a cold/chilly theme.

If anyone wants to see an alternative to 'it's all collapsing' then have a look through P8 - it's never overly cold (but then no model has really shown that anyway!) but it does stay distinctly chilly pretty much throughout.

Lol Martin. I fully understand that feeling of hope and then that sinking feeling if it is swiped away. And even if it delivers, another horrible feeling is that gut-wrenching sound of drip, drip - lol!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ENS clearly show the uncertainty from next weekend.

Lets hope JMA is the leader

Before the Winter started Feb was always hinted at being the colder of the 3 months

Cheers Gav

Nailed on then

Mines got one for tues

As James said earlier a few problems with that postion of that Lp to our south perhaps its best to keep a very open mind at the moment even at t72 after looking at the clusters

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!72!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2015011512!!/