theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
15 January 2015 21:05:52

GFS is actually pretty poor for the snow, you can see why, that 2nd occluded front is trapped way to the north, so no real cold, also other front weaker than on the ECM. ECM definately best scenario for snowfall.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
picturesareme
15 January 2015 21:33:26


 


Lol Martin. I fully understand that feeling of hope and then that sinking feeling if it is swiped away. And even if it delivers, another horrible feeling is that gut-wrenching sound of drip, drip - lol!


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


ENS clearly show the uncertainty from next weekend.


Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 


Coming from portsmouth I'm forever now an eternal pessimist when it comes to snow :D

blizzard of 78
15 January 2015 21:50:34
For those already bemoaning a return to mild westerlies after the cold spell next week.

Here's the latest from Ian Fergusson over on NW.

A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)....
Quantum
15 January 2015 21:55:54

Lake effect snow potential for tommorow. 



Remember the wind needs to be pointing towards you for this to work, also high wind sheer prevents shower formation, when I improve this map I'll put on wind barbs and sheer contours. Anyway values of ~18 quite widely in the Irish sea and NW scotland, that correlates to pretty widespread fairly heavy showers, 21 is about the benchmark for thundersnow which is yellow here.  

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Maunder Minimum
15 January 2015 22:04:23

No pub run tonight I am afraid. The 18z out to 90 hours is following the same path as the 12z, but if anything builds even less in the way of heights to our north.


Doesn't look like an upgrade, that is for sure. Drier than the 12z as well for much of central England.

New world order coming.
Rob K
15 January 2015 22:04:53
Everything looks a tad further north on the 18Z. May mean less cold for the south initially but could have an effect down the line...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
warrenb
15 January 2015 22:07:59
Well the 18z is a mess already at +90
Tonbridge 45m 
doctormog
15 January 2015 22:08:21
Few/minor changes in the 0 to 100hr time scale of the 18z GFS op run so still pretty chilly out to that point.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Jive Buddy
15 January 2015 22:13:47


Lake effect snow potential for tommorow. 



 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


First the old Sinclair Spectrum gets a remake, and now a screen grab from Ceefax? 1980s Winters are back! 


EDIT: Ah bollix! Someone got in before me with the Ceefax joke! 

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Whether Idle
15 January 2015 22:15:49


 


First the old Sinclair Spectrum gets a remake, and now a screen grab from Ceefax? 1980s Winters are back! 


EDIT: Ah bollix! Someone got in before me with the Ceefax joke! 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 


Looks more like Teletext to me, the poor relation

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2015 22:17:40


 


First the old Sinclair Spectrum gets a remake, and now a screen grab from Ceefax? 1980s Winters are back! 


EDIT: Ah bollix! Someone got in before me with the Ceefax joke! 


Originally Posted by: Jive Buddy 

That's age JB........I remember when you were first to draw

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Matty H
15 January 2015 22:17:51


 


Looks more like Teletext to me, the poor relation


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Since when did you become the Oracle?


 


 


Think about it....


 


meanwhile, back in the MO thread 


Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Whether Idle
15 January 2015 22:18:57


 


Since when did you become the Oracle?


 


 


Think about it....


 


meanwhile, back in the MO thread 



Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Russwirral
15 January 2015 22:19:13
Promising to see we will have a few hard deep frosts and dare i say it ice days on the cards before proper precipitation arrives next week. We need a hard frozen ground to make the most of anything that falls from the sky.

Boxing days snow here managed to stick due to its intensity, but was extremely wet before it fell



heres a video i did ... watch as it goes white

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Jive Buddy
15 January 2015 22:21:36


That's age JB........I remember when you were first to draw


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


LOL! Sad thing is, you're probably right! 


OK, to use the "Now to keep on topic" trick....


The models look interesting tonight! 

It's not over, until the fat Scandy sinks.....

Location: St. Mary Cray, S.E. London border with Kent.
Whether Idle
15 January 2015 22:22:15

I prefer the 18z to the 12z - not a bad chart:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Charmhills
15 January 2015 22:22:31


No pub run tonight I am afraid. The 18z out to 90 hours is following the same path as the 12z, but if anything builds even less in the way of heights to our north.


Doesn't look like an upgrade, that is for sure. Drier than the 12z as well for much of central England.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


Really



Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Maunder Minimum
15 January 2015 22:27:00


 


Really




Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Yes - well I posted before those charts appeared. On the plus side, the 18z does something interesting next Thursday and builds the HP over the top of us towards Scandinavia, so looks less of a sinker than the 12z. Still that is FI at the moment - only time will tell.

New world order coming.
Whether Idle
15 January 2015 22:29:34


No pub run tonight I am afraid. The 18z out to 90 hours is following the same path as the 12z, but if anything builds even less in the way of heights to our north.


Doesn't look like an upgrade, that is for sure. Drier than the 12z as well for much of central England.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


18z is looking quite snowy - a real tonic and to my eyes the most enjoyable run in ages

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gavin P
15 January 2015 22:29:35

For those already bemoaning a return to mild westerlies after the cold spell next week.

Here's the latest from Ian Fergusson over on NW.

A mixed bag of EC clusters.... any pronouncements of a secure and swift return to 'mild' conditions need to be taken with pinch of salt. Meanwhile, nearer-term focus needs to be on the late Sat-Sun high WBPT plume curving atop the low running off down into Biscay. *Could* get interesting on N flank of this feature, but wide spread in PPN envelope (e.g. MOGREPS has this anywhere from N France to S Midlands!!)....

Originally Posted by: blizzard of 78 


I notice GEM looks very snowy for the south on Sunday;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem721.gif


 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Rob K
15 January 2015 22:30:35

18Z at 180 hours looks like possibly reloading from the north?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2015 22:30:59


 


I notice GEM looks very snowy for the south on Sunday;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem721.gif


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Today I've always thought it was the best model

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Rob K
15 January 2015 22:32:16


 


I notice GEM looks very snowy for the south on Sunday;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem721.gif


 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Wintry mix. The 850s are a bit gash at the moment. Where is the cold air?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem722.gif

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
squish
15 January 2015 22:32:51
+120 FAX

Not a bad winter chart
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Whether Idle
15 January 2015 22:33:48


 


Wintry mix. The 850s are a bit gash at the moment. Where is the cold air?


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem722.gif


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


That GEM run is pants for cold air later on.  The 18z GFS however, has wings: much better 850s here at 168:


 



 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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