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Matty H
26 January 2015 16:44:56


 


I've seen them on Fax charts in the past Matty (short range though I think), back in the days of more regular Northerlies. If I can find one somewhere in the Fax archive (and I can be bothered!), I'll put it up.


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


They definitely appear in FAX charts occasionally, but are generally speaking almost spontaneous events I think. IBe no idea what the verification rate is for forecast polar lows. 

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
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idj20
26 January 2015 16:46:20

What is pleasing about the low-res end of the GFS is how it is still showing the Atlantic Storm Machine being shut down or being deflected well away from the UK. That will do me nicely.

Quite a different outlook on this time last year when the charts just kept showing storm system after system winding up over the Atlantic all ready to trash the heck out of our poor little country.

Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
26 January 2015 16:48:36


What is pleasing about the low-res end of the GFS is how it is still showing the Atlantic Storm Machine being shut down or being deflected well away from the UK. That will do me nicely.

Quite a different outlook on this time last year when the charts just kept showing storm system after system winding up over the Atlantic all ready to trash the heck out of our poor little country.


Originally Posted by: idj20 


Spot on Ian and I would happily forego the snow if it meant not having a repeat of last year's "winter".


 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Whiteout
26 January 2015 16:54:12


Well that feature running N to S later in the weekend is still there on the 12Z. Needs watching as it's running into established -8 air with -10s running in behind, and no discernible less cold sector his time.
This spell is developing into a long-burner.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


dp's again looking marginal Neil, we just can't win can we lol!

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
nsrobins
26 January 2015 17:03:04


 


dp's again looking marginal Neil, we just can't win can we lol!


Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


At this range Rich all conjecture, but I've got dps of 0C across the South as that feature runs down. By Monday they're down to -5 widely which is impressive and indicates a true Arctic feed.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Russwirral
26 January 2015 17:04:15
Again! FI Ends with the Azores high going mobile. Allowing pressure to drop in the mid/southern atlantic.

Great to see.. especially all that WAA on its western flank. Lots of the right ingredients incase the HP decides it prefers Greenland.

How long have we had that stubborn Azores high?

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Saint Snow
26 January 2015 17:07:42


 


At this range Rich all conjecture, but I've got dps of 0C across the South as that feature runs down. By Monday they're down to -5 widely which is impressive and indicates a true Arctic feed.


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


For much of the country, between the cold front sinking south on Wednesday, and an area of milder 850's entrenched in that low passing through on Friday, DP's are <0c, then begin to fall again.


I can actually see even some lowland areas in the NW & N Midlands getting some snow cover on Wed nigh/Thur, but then rain on Friday washing most/all of it away.


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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hobensotwo
26 January 2015 17:16:14

Eventually the -10 reaching the Channel.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Long way off but something that might get me in on some of the fun.

Solar Cycles
26 January 2015 17:20:34


 


 


For much of the country, between the cold front sinking south on Wednesday, and an area of milder 850's entrenched in that low passing through on Friday, DP's are <0c, then begin to fall again.


I can actually see even some lowland areas in the NW & N Midlands getting some snow cover on Wed nigh/Thur, but then rain on Friday washing most/all of it away.


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

That dreaded mild sector come Friday is a bit of kick in the balls but there's still time for corrections on that little feature, thereafter just about anywhere in the UK could see some falling/lying snow with Sunday and Tuesday next week looking good although being that far out a lot can chop and change and no doubt will. It's the possibility of polar lows forming in the unstable Northerly airflow that has me salivating, lots on offer over the coming week and beyond and even if it ends up dry for most of us it's still better than wind and rain.

Charmhills
26 January 2015 17:34:17

No complaints from me regarding the GFS 12/Met/o 12z.


All sorts to possibly watch out for in the flow.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Quantum
26 January 2015 17:37:15


 


They definitely appear in FAX charts occasionally, but are generally speaking almost spontaneous events I think. IBe no idea what the verification rate is for forecast polar lows. 


Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Extremely poor, the ECM is the best model for picking them up, but even so they are very hard to predict because they are so small and require such unique conditions to form (they are far more similar in structure to tropical hurricanes than mid-atlantic depressions).

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
kmoorman
26 January 2015 18:01:39
I have a model related question....

In this ensemble plot (for the Sussex coast) early Thursday has snow chances of 70% at one point, but if you check the 2m temp plot it's about 4-5c . How do I reconcile these two bits of data?

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=295&y=180&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1 
Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
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Gooner
26 January 2015 18:24:14

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 We 28.01.2015 12 GMT


Shows the colder air following on very quickly

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 January 2015 18:26:41


Shows Wednesdays cold front rushing through

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 January 2015 18:31:01



Are we to get a runner from the NW, be very interesting if we did

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Nordic Snowman
26 January 2015 18:32:08

Sorry for O/T post but it is a sort of model problem I am having  It is really irritating me and I wonder if anyone else is having the same issue?


On Wetter, the charts are frequently getting shoved into a frame. Anyone?


 


photo Untitled_zpshoyhe01f.png

Bjorli, Norway

Website 
Gooner
26 January 2015 18:40:56


Looks like it slides past Mattyshire


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Notty
26 January 2015 18:42:18

Ecm t+ 168 low pressure in very cold air -does that look ok for snow in the south west?


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Notty
Pontypool, 132m asl
Charmhills
26 January 2015 18:42:51


Still cold by 168hs.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Gooner
26 January 2015 18:49:11



The cold flow continues , decent from ECM

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
26 January 2015 18:54:48

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012612/ECH1-216.GIF?26-0


A cold HP sits over us on D9


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Rob K
26 January 2015 18:54:52
This may be deemed off topic but it is model related - an interesting read on GFS v ECM performance (specifically as it relates to US forecasting, but still relevant).

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/26/blizzard-questions-including-why-a-european-weather-model-excels-at-u-s-forecasts/?_r=0 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
nsrobins
26 January 2015 18:59:54
A developing theme for several runs now perfectly illustrated by the ECM - a UK based high next week to keep it cold and seasonal, and especially cold at nights over any snow cover.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Gooner
26 January 2015 19:01:56

Good output tonight for us cold lovers, snow could crop up anywhere in this sort of set up

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
26 January 2015 19:08:13

ECM 12Z compared to GFS 12Z is poor for cold in the northerly. The real cold upper air from north of Svarlbard does not make it to the UK. 


It's a big ask for this to happen, and it does so rarely. GFS might be right, but I doubt it. As ever lots of scope before this is nailed.


As usual this winter the big problem is the distance any real cold air has to travel through the mean streets to reach the UK without being mugged.

Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

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