I think it is Julie Andrews - the hills are alive ....

SC's post boggling and fascinnating at the same time ...thanks.

Me Jarmers On off to bed to Atune Me Mentals with it all.

Sorry if this is a little OT but.... why in this chart, given the temperatures surrounding Corsica, is it so cold relative the the surrounding med. Corsica isn't a huge land mass is it? Would it be that different?

The EPS show very blocked weather, with only a few zonal members by the 14th. 

It would be ideal to collect some snow cover next week, under that anticyclone that will knock a few degrees off. 

I'll leave the details to our more experienced posters, but in summary it's high, high, high for the foreseeable.

HP all the way

Chilly with it

Back down to earth with a bump following the brief hopes of last night. Kudos to GFS. ECM has performed poorly of late

Still some hope post Day 10 of retrogression to better position so perhaps one last fling of winter in the second half of Feb

Hopefully the SE can squeeze out a few more flurries in the next 2 days

At least it did snow this winter which is all that I wanted to see. Roll on Spring!

 Dave,lCorsica is very mountainous with peaks over 2000m and a lot of land area over 1000m -that is refleted in the lower temperatures.

GEFS has total HP Residence 1040mb over the UK at 144h.

By 192 h majority of the ENS have HP locatted to the SE.

by 240h Atlantic influence in 55% of ENS with HP Ens scattered in various locations.

At 360h Atlantic infuence fall to 35% of ENs with majority of HP locations either over UK mor in Mid Atlantic.

In summary liitle sign iof anything at present to relive the tedium.

The GEFS shows resident HP 144h over UK at 144h.By 192 h majority of ENS have HP slipping to SE Of UK.At 240h Atlantic influence is in the majority but by 360h this fals back to 35% with the majority of HP ENS being over UK or Mid atlantic.Little to excite at present.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold North and slowly strengthening NE flow will develop across the UK over the coming days as a ridge of High pressure moves into the NW later.

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming slowly less cold with a lot of dry and bright weather away from some rain in the North later. Some frosts at night still chiefly in the South

THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the UK lying on the cold side of the Jet flow currently but as High pressure builds over the UK the flow rides over the top of the UK meaning uppers rise and then continue in this form until later in the period..

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a simple pattern which persists through the entire run with High pressure currently approaching the NW of the UK slipping further South towards Southern Britain by the weekend. It then meanders around the South and West of the UK for the remainder of the period. The current cold North or NE flow would be cutoff with time along with the  wintry showers across the SE and east until the weekend. Week 2 then looks dry and benign and somewhat less cold especially towards the North in NW winds here. The South would more likely continue rather cold with frosts at night but light winds and bright days.

THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run shows little significant differences in weather at the surface to the GFS operational with just small but subtle differences in the positioning of the High near or over the UK making local variances in the amounts of cloud and temperature levels the only major comparison day to day in the sustained High pressure pattern throughout.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 65% likelihood of High pressure near or to the SW of the UK in 14 days with benign conditions and temperatures just a little below average but with frosts by night in the South. The remaining 35% offer something rather more unsettled with stronger winds and rain at times.

UKMO UKMO this morning shows pressure building strongly over the UK in the next 5 or 6 days with a centre of High pressure well established near Southern Britain at the Day 6 period. The current North or NE flow will be cut off by the weekend removing the risk of wintry showers and turning things generally slowly less cold at least by day from the North.

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show little overall difference to the raw data with High pressure centred firmly near Ireland by Monday with a ridge from it across a large part of the UK drawing less cold air gently South across the UK.

GEM GEM today also shows High pressure dominating through it's run firstly cutting off the cold NE flow across the South by the weekend and then drawing less cold air from the North. then by next week a temporary spell of much stronger West winds over Scotland heightens the risk of rain here for a time before High pressure builds back North again later next week.

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure in total control of the UK weather for the foreseeable future as it builds a centre across the UK by the weekend with fine and dry weather for all with temperatures somewhat less cold but still very frosty at night in places under very light winds.

ECM ECM this morning shows total support for the same general theme of High pressure over or to the West of the UK with benign and dry conditions developing following the rest of the working week being cold and breezy with some wintry showers near the South and SE. Next week sees calm weather with temperatures somewhat higher by day but with still night frosts before the High is show to slip slowly South out of the UK by the end of the run bringing much milder and stronger Westerly winds down from the North later with rain in the far North.

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the most likely position we will be in at the end of Day 10 will be one of High pressure close to Southern Britain with a Westerly flow to the North maintaining a lot of dry weather with any rain in the far North. Temperatures should recover away from Southern England where Anticyclonic conditions may maintain rather cold weather here with frost at night.

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards somewhat less cold but Anticyclonic conditions remains through all the output this morning with a higher than average level of support between all the output.

MY THOUGHTS High pressure is the main feature shown within all the model output near to the UK and maintaining a lot of dry and bright weather for the coming two weeks. The current cold pool of air across the UK is scheduled to decline over the end of the week but this process is likely to take a long time to reach the extreme South. However reach us it will and as uppers rise we will then rely on surface cold to develop under still conditions under the High pressure from the weekend on and this looks most likely across the South. From that time it looks like the North will see a strengthening of a West and NW flow carrying a lot of cloud in from the nearby Atlantic suppressing brightness and preventing frosts and this may well eek into the South at times too. So after the wintry showers of the rest of this working week any significant precipitation will be of rain and restricted to the far North late in the period with many places staying dry for a week or two from now. Then as I look into the far reaches of the output I can see two things. One, it looks unlikely that we will find ourselves falling into notable cold again soon as High pressure locates close to but unfavourably  likely to be South or SW of the UK maintaining a feed of air from the West and NW across the UK. Secondly it looks like staying largely dry for the first two weeks of February with many places seeing very little if any rain through the entire 15 days of this morning's model output providing they verify of course. So as has been the case all Winter we return to nomansland in the longer term with little desire to rise pressure North of the UK and sustaining the fact that we will continue to have to look towards the North for any cold to return later in the month rather than from the East.

Issued at 08:00 Tuesday February 3rd 2015

Yes agree, would have liked at least 1 day with lying snow but at least seen SOME lying slushy snow this winter which is a whole lot better than last year when I saw one frost and no snow at all. Models back to the HP too far east again this morning to be of any interest, even the strat  is dull too with a small warming right at the end of FI , but then GFS has been showing this all winter only to tone it down nearer the time. 

Most excitement now will be chasing cloud amounts around and Fog  / Frost, perhaps a swing again in the later model runs but looking unlikely.

It's not "kudos" to any model until they verify! imho......

Good point. I think it was Gandalf who mentioned earlier in this thread that a week or so ago, quite a number of the model runs at that time had the cold spell ending either yesterday or today.. Furthermore, before the cold spell of a fortnight ago came to an end, IIRC some of the op runs were showing a return to the kind of atlantic zonality we saw from early December until mid-January, and it sure hasn't happened like that.

I think we all hope the models change drastically from what it being shown - but based on what is shown today the runs aren't particularly exciting as neither early spring warmth or late winter cold and likely at this time of year to result in days of cloudy skies with the odd bit of brightness if you are lucky. In short pretty dull and boring weather.

I think the main difference this morning though David is all models and ensembles are more or less singing from the same hymn sheet. They could of course all be wrong but it doesn't look that likely with the Jet flow riding over the top of the UK High at the weekend. Having said that I think that it will be some considerable time before any surface warmth will be manifested down here in the extreme South.

so, we've for Tantric weather?  Sting must be loving it.

I wouldn't go that far, but it's sure a frustration!

That's true Martin. Having said that, I can recall one occasion in the past when the model runs and their ensembles were in seemingly good agreement wrt one particular dominating for a while, only to do a major U-turn in the space of 24 hours or so. That was during the early Feb 2009 cold spell when the model runs and ensembles had I think been in agreement on the cold lasting for a good deal of that month, only to then seemingly change their minds all of a sudden and change to a rather milder period developing instead.

Much more recently, as far as I recall, back at the start of January the majority of op and ensemble runs were indicating the strong zonality we had at that time still dominating in the middle of the month; the majority of op runs at New Year certainly looked none too clever for cold prospects. I seem to recall that at that time, quite a number of people on the model thread at the time were on the point of writing off the whole of January in terms of anything wintry turning up.

I dont want to sound negative but is,nt most or all the models in good agreement into a HP dominating over the next 2 weeks and remaining dry,

medium term pattern is now nailed probably so now a case of looking into FI and chasing the next cold spell before the season is out

BTW February 2003 had a LOT of anticyclonic influences and generally kept up, "on and off" through spring and into summer...

#justsaying

Some hilarious analogies here - but I have to say I know what you mean :-)

I guessing Its going to be slow on is thread in the coming days or then again a lot of FI charts being posted,

Well I for one am looking forward to dry, HP dominated weather. Far, far better than endless zonal dirge like we had last winter - at least you can get out and about in the countryside (as long as you wrap up warm).